ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

I know its not a proper comparison but its still an important one to see where it will land
I think deadpool is a very good comparison and i think deadpool will hold better. BP was a must see movie on its 1st week end and i see a big drop on 2nd week end.
I'm sorry about my english i hope it's not horrible for you to read, i understand english thanks to movie and tv show but speaking and writting it is very hard for me

 

Both Annihilation and Red Sparrow are two movies I like to see at the theater but most likely will have to skip unless I can sneak off to see one of them along with Ready Player One during Spring Break. Ready Player One I am already planning on seeing late Thursday night (Friday and the rest of the weekend is going to be nothing but family time, I even gave the lacrosse kids the rest of the week off) so perhaps if I can get to see a very late showing of Red Sparrow (since it's the movie I want to see more since the book was outstanding) that Tuesday night.

 

Disagree. This is THE movie event right now and people everywhere are talking about it. This will have no lower legs than Jurassic World as far as weekends go. What will keep it from having the same multiplier is the weekdays. It's not because it will do "bad" business, but rather that the weekdays here on out are not holidays or summer.

I don't see less than a 2.70 multiplier because the buzz is still VERY high and will be for a while. It will put an unexpected Disney movie into the top 10 all time in amongst several in the next few years that were guaranteed. Just another mighty feather in the cap!

 

I'm pretty sad Annihilation will not be in theater in france, directly on netfilx. I can't wait for ready player one, Spielberg and SF is what i want, i hope its good.

 

Well, people in US are talking about it but I dont think it will be worldwide hit. In my country BP sold less tickets in premiere weekend then Grey in its second week. (and only about 25% of TLJ premiere week )

And lets face it, I am Star Wars fan so I hope that Solo will win box office 2018 just as it was for the last 3 years

 

Your English is better than most of us native English speakers, don’t worry.


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Could Solo be the first SW film not to be #1 domestic since AOTC?

 

I'm pretty sure that will be the case, yes.

Before the year started I wouldn't exactly have expected Black Panther to come in ahead of Solo, not that it happened yet, but it seems very likely at this point. In terms of likelyhood of winning the year (domestically) I would have put Infinity War first, JW2 second, Solo third and The Incredibles 2 fourth. They all had different ranges that overlapped to some degree, with the latter two needing peak performance at the same time as the first two struggling a bit. And obviously, if the opposite would happen, the gap would have been quite huge

I wasn't really sure whether The Incredibles 2 would beat BP, but I thought it could have a high ceiling if everything went right.

 

I'd never have expected BP to potentially beat or even come close to IW. Now I can't see anything coming close to BP. BP at mid to high $500's and IW in the low $500's (millions domestic). Marvel will take the top 2 slots for the year easily.

Jurassic World 2 will probably take 3rd.

Solo, Incredibles 2, and Deadpool 2 will battle it out for 4th, 5th, and 6th. Disney will have 4 of the top 6 films for the year. Could be They will have 6-8 in the top 10 next year easily as well. (SW9, TA4, TS4, Froz2, Aladdin, LK, maybe Dumbo and/or Captain Marvel). In 2019 the movies to break Disney's top 10 dominance would be WW2, It2, and Pets2.

 

Take a look at this http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4373&p=.htm. It's expected to do better than most films on its sophomore frame. BP is the event for now.

 

Yes, it will be unfortunately. BP is doing tremendous at the box office, and Avengers: Infinty Wars is up, followed by Deadpool 2, then two weeks after Han Solo comes out its the Ocean 8. No big deal on that movie, but the week after that one is Incredible 2 and that will be a whopper followed by Chris Pratt and Jurassic World 2. Still, Han Solo doesn't need to be number one as long as it is good its all we can ask.

 

Still surprised how many people here severely underestimated Black Panther's potential.

Meanwhile I don't think Solo has a chance of being the top film of 2018.

 

I agree that Solo has no chance of topping the 2018 charts, but I think there has been far more overestimation of Black Panther's potential that underestimation. Maybe not quite as much on here, but across various places on the web I've been seeing all kinds of outlandish projections.

 

Black Panther was originally projected to do 110-115 million a few months ago. They knew it would do well, but not nearly as well as it has done. It will most likely have a significant drop, but that’s because of it’s release date. School is still in session and people have to work.

 

Funny thing about Disney. We all say how amazing Disney is with their movies but here's the question. Does Disney make great movies with amazing box office runs or do they simply just buy out the companies that do?

The answer is obviously the latter. Take away the companies they've bought and they have Beauty and the Best and Finding Dory in the top 20 all time.

@powerfulforce What's happening with BP is that people, despite school and work, are FINDING time and the "need" to see it and will do so thus keeping it in the theater and near the top for longer than many other films. That's an event film!

 

Also, just a little note...

TLJ has officially passed The Avengers pre-expansion domestic total.

 

Will pass TLJ again by Sunday.

 

And promptly fall right back behind it again. What’s your point? Lol it’s not beating TLJ.

 

SW fans should never underestimate.

 

Why not. Maybe not the best opening weekend, but if fan reaction is positive it may get a long run

 

I agree it has a small chance if it is the "fun" Star Wars movie the marketing is beginning to hint at. It has to be remembered that ANH on release was FUN. It made people happy and indeed gave them hope.

A fun Star Wars movie, if done really well, always has a chance for top dog at the BO.

Never tell me the odds though

 

I'm guessing that BP will be around in good force after March 15 so that we can see it then (or the following weekend). Ironically, we'll be too busy preparing our trip to WDW to see the biggest movie from Disney out now.

As far as BP catching TLJ domestic, I think it will be somewhat close. And this is without holiday legs. Imagine if BP was released by itself (not much comp) around the holiday time with the same WOM and positive press??? I guess $700 million would have been easily attained.

 

BP have absolutely no competition
TLJ had jumanji wich ended being a big competitor but BP's biggest opponent is peter rabbit wich is a movie for little kid and 50 shades.
In hollydays it would have face big movie

 

700m is not an easily attainable number. The holiday season wouldn't give it a 100m boost.

 

BP will tie the JW/TLJ mark of 8 days to $300 million in the US. It's well on track for a phenomenal second weekend.