ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

I'm so glad it hasn't reached the 1,5 Billion mark, as predicted
the lack of repeated viewings by angry/disappointed fans is notorious
if this hadn't been the sequel of TFA, "just" an anthology film, it wouldn't have reached the 1 Billion mark

 

BP:$300 million in 8 days
$400 million in 10 days.
Predicted second largest second weekend of all time.

 

Who at Disney-LFL predicted 1.5 billion?

Why are you, a Star Wars fan, glad that a Star Wars film made less money than "as predicted"?

 

TLJ was a big hit. Deal with it. I also know it brought in a lot of new fans that thought Star Wars opted for a new and needed direction. Older fans and new fans that thought TFA maybe was a tad too vanilla.

 

TLJ will continue to be a top 10 all time hit in the U.S. for several more years before it is eventually bumped. There's no way it can be construed as anything other than a major blockbuster.

It's been fun comparing BP to TLJ and JW. Jurassic World had kids out for summer vacation driving a lot of box office in the mid week. TLJ had a second week holiday when millions of people were out of school and off work for the full week. Black Panther has no inherent advantage other than its holiday Monday, which was mostly a school holiday. And yet, it has done phenomenally well mid week. A bit off from Jurassic World, but I suspect that means more pent up demand this weekend and a surprisingly good hold.

This goes without saying but, despite excellent reviews, Annihilation is going to get buried.

 

Looks like BP is gonna add about 14.2 million for Thursday.

TLJ's first week defeats BP's holiday first week, 296.6m to 291.9m.

 

Considering all context (Star Wars branding of TLJ, time of year of releases, SW built in fan-base) what BP did was more impressive imo.

 

Deadline projects $104M+ for the second Black Panther weekend ($32M ahead of TLJ for the second weekend). Boxofficemojo thinks $120M for the second weekend ($48M ahead of TLJ for the second weekend).

 

It will be tough for Black Panther to pass 600m given the time of year it was released. I think this is showing that some people had way to high of expectations for TLJ as Black Panther was a 200m+ release as well and looks to be holding up worse than TLJ did. We just don't have enough data on 200m+ openings yet to make real accurate predictions on them.

 

Very impressive, indeed. Easily the most impressive first week for a Marvel movie.

 

I would agree that BP's success is hugely impressive, but you're ignoring the cultural aspect and pent up demand for BP, vs the third SW film in as many years. BP is essentially the Marvel SW here - a zeitgeist film. But each franchise gets the shot at a zeitgeist film once per generation. TFA did it for SW - where you get people that wouldn't normally go to the cinema picking up on the buzz, critical praise and WoM and checking it out. That's what gives that huge (and deserved) boost. I think BP could well beat TLJ, what will be amazing to see is just how big it is. I would not expect the BP sequel to be so big though (regardless of quality).

 

It's not a December or Summer release where people are off of school or work during the weekdays (besides President's Day). So the weekends will be loaded up on the demand that would have happened during the weekdays in those other scenarios.

 

TLJ's second weekend also was Christmas weekend though.

 

Looking strictly at domestic numbers, Black Panther is beaten by Detective Chinatown 2 ( i know, who?) opening during the Chinese holiday. First 6 days gross $ 299 mill. With huge competition. If any Hollywood blockbuster was being released in China now, it would have been blasted from surface...

@jamminjedi23 Think you are right about that. Maybe its a symptom of something we are likely to see a lot in the future. Some movies opening over $ 200 mil, even over $ 250 mill at some point, but legs will find a new definition here, even when a movie is being well received. I believe most people would want to see the movie during the first weekend / week, and most big movies will burn off rather quickly. Wonder Woman did something unsusual last summer, but its OW was pretty low in todays standards.

 

Black Panther will earn what it’s supposed to earn. Regardless of its release date. Obviously there are advantages. But I think all it will mean is very high weekend takes for the foreseeable future.


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For sure. This is why weekly comparisons will be more useful than weekend comparisons.

 

And the funny thing is, DC2 only opened in second place!
The Chinese new year's holiday delivered simply absurd numbers. DC2 336m, Monster Hunt 2 286m, Operation Red Sea 227m, Monkey King 3 100m, Boonie Bears 71m, all over the last seven days. MH2 actually delivered by far the biggest opening, but had pretty average WOM to say the least, so it fell behind DC2.


With that kind of drop, 100m+ for the weekend looks pretty likely. Behaving like Deadpool should put it right at 100m, and I think this might actually play a bit better.

 

[QUOTE="Othini, post: 54909240, member: 1376730"

@jamminjedi23 Think you are right about that. Maybe its a symptom of something we are likely to see a lot in the future. Some movies opening over $ 200 mil, even over $ 250 mill at some point, but legs will find a new definition here, even when a movie is being well received. I believe most people would want to see the movie during the first weekend / week, and most big movies will burn off rather quickly. Wonder Woman did something unsusual last summer, but its OW was pretty low in todays standards.[/QUOTE]

Yeah with as much marketing as these movies get these days it's getting to the point to where a significant portion of the people that intend to see the movie in theaters are seeing it opening weekend (or at least opening week). Using OW's to judge legs is a strategy that is becoming increasingly out of date with each passing year.

 

Yeah, you see, posts like this are just classic #### stirring in its most cynically purist form. A perfect example of the toxicity that has infested this website and message board of late, and one of the main reasons why I (and I’m sure many others) don’t post much anymore.

 

True. If you have an interest in other areas of Star Wars outside of talk about the immediate movie going on the atmosphere isn't that bad and you can post there without many problems. I read a lot of the books and the lit section is fine to talk at. Same with the tv section. Most of the toxicity seems to be primarily focused on threads dealing with TLJ.

 

Either way, Disney are swimming in money.

 

Day 70: The Last Jedi current gross: $618,375,718
Day 70: The Last Jedi current multiplier (total gross divided by opening): 2.81
Day 70: Amount of money Rogue One had left to earn: $3,156,780
Day 64 to 70: % The Last Jedi trailed Rogue One: -21.18%
Day 140 (May 2017): Last day Rogue One was tracked in theaters. The Last Jedi would end up with a final tally of $620,863,892 by same day if no further change versus Rogue One.

Week 10 ended yesterday.

Spoiler: line graphs

 

BP
7-Day Total:
$291,954,422

TLJ
7-Day Total:
$296,602,356

 

Deadline's come down now with industry projections of $92M+ for BP's second weekend.