ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

If you make a good "Four Quadrant" film, it will make money.

Hollywood should know that by now.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-quadrant_movie

 

Still haven't seen it, yet there's ample opportunity; despite being released for streaming next week it's still playing in plenty of theaters here.

 

The rules for how movie releases work and how long audience interest can last for a series have completely changed in the last ten years. We're off the map for how movies worked in the 20th century and into uncharted territory. And the changes are just getting started. A streaming services war is about to start. When it's over there will probably be three mega media companies left. The big factors for who wins are going to be subscriber, bandwidth, content, and money backing a service.

Even if Star Wars looses some of it's luster in theaters - it's going to be one big domino for Disney's streaming services. Also every new Star Wars theatrical release becomes a 5 star home media event 7 months later when it arrives on streaming. And we're seeing with Marvel that there is no such thing as Super Hero Fatigue. Super Hero Movies are to theater goes today what Westerns were for the first 70 years of cinema. My hope Star Wars can fall into a pattern like Marvel, where all the films are solid hits, with one standout block buster every few years. But how does that work when there are also Star War TV shows happening at the same time.

So what happens next? We're going to get more Star Wars than we ever dared dream of. And anything can happen.

 

I think what we'll see, as with Marvel, is "new" stories with a familiar branding to make things connected to what audiences know. Franchises are certainly the "thing" these days but there is a desire for new material within those familiar brands. New heroes and stories for known (well or little) heroes is how Marvel will be doing it. For SW, it means keeping that galactic familiarity but opening the door to new stories and characters. Unfortunately, new stories not tied to familiar brands just aren't making it these days.

 

TLJ made it to $1.330 billion. Now we just need that domestic boost to get it to $620 million.

 

Looks like around 8m Mon for BP. BP is going to need to continue to have incredible weekends in order to pass TLJ with second weekday numbers like that.

 

I think it will pass TLJ. Not sure about Avengers. Should be nestled in among those two.

The $650 million projection is WAY too high. $630 seems to be around the highest. Absolutely stunning no matter what!

 

We'll see. There really isn't much difference between TLJ and Avengers so saying it will pass one but not the other doesn't mean much other than saying it will pass TLJ. BP will start falling off TLJ's pace this week. TLJ had 464m by the end of its second slot of weekdays and had 50+ m third weekend (including a 66m long third weekend). BP is going to need to start playing catch up a bit.

 

Somehow that seems less impressive now. It just got eaten alive by a Black Panther in less than 2 weeks. It was just another mid size blockbuster when you look back in the history books. The focus on its success in this thread, maybe not really justified by what it really did.

 

Since when does a 900 million+ movie count as a "mid-size" blockbuster?

 

So much credit is given to Disney for putting out so many ridiculously lucrative blockbusters. But how much credit does Disney TRULY deserve for Marvel and SW? They just distributed these after all. They also distributed movies I didn't even realize they did like Lincoln.

Disney is so much different than other studios in that they are like an amoeba engulfing other protozoa. They're still great, but the credit still needs to be mostly on Marvel and Lucasfilm as corporations. I mean, pretty soon they will get credit for Avatar sequels too?

 

@Nipuhanipera

Agree especially since they only threw $90 million in the production budget. Jumanji #2 was a mini pop culture phenomenon. It just kept going and continues to do so. This was it's 12th weekend out and still is in the Top 10 for the weekend (#6). Meanwhile TLJ fell out of the Top Ten after it's ninth weekend. TLJ came in like a lion but is going out like a lamb.

@jedijax

Disney still deserves a lot of credit for building the workshop for these franchises to work in. I also think Disney brass is starting to get a bit concerned about Star Wars and if it's potential is being meant. Solo even if it does pretty well, looks to be fighting for a Top 5 finish this year.

 

That Monday number is on par with Avengers 1 which ended up making 623million.

 

I can’t quite understand why BP would need to meet winter vacation weekday numbers in order to match other bloackbusters, many of which also didn’t benefit from winter holiday weekdays. It’s a hit with kids and kids are in school. The weekends are what I’ll be watching.

 

Next week end BP will have no competitor again so it will be big. In two week wrinkle in time will be a competitor even if its got bad review (i really think it will) and then tomb raider and pcific rim will be big competitor. If they got good review they will take the lead.
10 million oversea monday

 

Do you have some evidence that Disney is starting to get concerned about Star Wars' "potential"?

 

@Nipuhanipera Beaten by Black Panther in two weeks ( domestic i should have added + BP not having happy holidays to go by) All this Jumanji playing underdog is simply more or less more about some people not getting the whole picture )
@Luke02 Mini pop culture phenomenon? Really

Perspective do not come after 5 weeks of media headlines. Try again.

$ 900 mill is probably not enough to save Sony long term. Like someone else posted, we are likely to have 3 big studios within 5 years. Expect Disney to grab Sony and its Marvel stuff as well.

 

BP is underperforming Jurassic World's second Monday, but it had a much better second weekend hold. I expect the third weekend hold will be very good. Red Sparrow should do pretty well for an R rated opening weekend, but it won't hurt BP, and BP will be the number one movie for the third straight week. It looks very good to tie JW's 17 days to $500 million. And $600 million is all but guaranteed at this point.

 

Pointing to a Monday (or any weekday) crowd for BP is a misleading tracker. The weekends is when it will kill. $80+ this weekend wouldn't surprise me.

Good perspective -
Why 'Black Panther' Is A Bigger Box Office Success Story Than 'Star Wars' And 'Jurassic World'
https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welco...urassic-world/&refURL=&referrer=#7058d9e44e4a

 

Jurassic World came out during the summer. All schools are in session obviously and President’s Day is traditionally not a huge day at the box office with the exception of Deadpool. This just adds to the absolutely insanity of Black Panther. It is putting summer/holiday type numbers out of the gate in February. Incredible.

 

For Marvel, Feige certainly deserves all the credit for nurturing the MCU and getting all the right people. After his string of blockbusters, it's pretty clear it's more talent/skill with him than luck.

 

Did beauty and the beast had holidays boost in march ?

 

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $618,728,556 46.5%
+ Foreign: $711,433,993 53.5%
= Worldwide: $1,330,162,549

Almost reaching a round number, 620M.

 

Credit to Lucasfilm, Disney and Kathleen Kennedy for having 3 movies in 3 years over $ 1 billion.

 

@Darth Luch

Sort of. Spring break weeks in the US can start as early as the week of St. Patty’s Day though typically most schools are out the last week of March now (the schools my wife and I work at are along with the grade school my boys attend). So Beauty did some help with kids starting to be off those weeks in March and Early April. Nothing like a summer opening or even a holiday one but I am sure it got a little help from having spring breaks close by which is why I at least in terms of release dates, Pacific Rim 2 got the better opening date compared to Ready Player One. PR 2 is coming out March 24 which will be the start of many Spring Breaks. Ready Player One comes out a week later therefore it will be coming out just as many Spring Break ends.

Edit: Black Panther did almost $11 million yesterday. That is only three million behind TLJ's second Monday total of $14 million. TLJ second Monday fell on January 1st. Black Panther's fell on February 26th. It just topped the total for Civil War and Iron Man 3 domestically. It will eclipse Wonder Woman's total after business today. All in less then twelve days. Again incredible.