ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

jedijax

They will be, they just don't want to overload people with it since they just came out with a spinoff all Minions movie two years ago.

What Spidey: HC has going for it is that it's now in the MCU universe which is where people have wanted to see for ten years now plus it's going back to it's roots and making Peter Parker a fun loving teenager instead of Emo kid. I think long as it's a typical Marvel quality movie then it is going to come off very well and do some extremely good business.

 

Not to be insensitive and I hope people don't take it that way but with Carrie Fishers passing this movie will most likely surpass TFA. It's her last movie and it'll make even people not into Star Wars most likely see it. That's my take at least.

 

Not to the tune of $937 million domestically. That was a once in the generation thing as TFA was a happening due to it being the sequel to a movie people been waiting 30+ years to see. I do think Carrie's death will offset some of the drop off but the odds of it being a cultural phenomenon is almost none. I am nearly 40 years old and I seen four of them in my lifetime.

- E.T.
- Titanic
- Avatar
- The Force Awakens

That is one a decade. To see a second one in the span of three years is well nearly impossible.

 

But the dark tower is also, one alot of fans are waiting on it could surprise people. As for Power Rangers I think its hard to tell whether it will do well just because things that do extremely well have surprised me before so who really knows, im sure spider man homecoming will do well it looks so fun!

 

Was TDK a cultural phenomenon? I'd say it was. How about Frozen? I don't think the box office numbers makes something a cultural phenomenon. It's more the influence of the movie or set of movies. TFA was a phenomenon and thus, in my opinion, the entire new trilogy is also.

But it's the nuance that dies off unless something completely new happens. TDK was really an exception to the rule. But reaching $700-$750 million is still phenomenal if not being a cultural phenomenon by itself.

Btw, there should be more options on this page. It should have:
(1) Surpass TFA
(2) Comparable to TFA (less than $100 million difference)
(3) Small drop ($200 million or less)
(4) Significant drop

Or maybe it should have sets of $100 million:
(1) $900 million or more
(2) $800's
(3) $700's
(4) $600's
(5) less than $600 million

 

jedijax

This is really well said.

 

More than Rogue One, less than TFA. About what Age of Ultron made.

 

Umm...you must mean world wide. R1 made quite a bit more than AOU domestically.

 

The fact that a new SW movie could be even with a POS like Age of Ultron pains me. It should destroy junk like that.

 

Yes.

 

Yeah not a chance this movie will make as much as TFA. The only way a Star Wars movie will ever make that much again is if they take a lengthy break again and go on a two or three year hype campaign like they did for TFA. I see this movie making about 700 million or so if it is received well.

 

jedijax

Funny but I was going to put Frozen up there but ultimately went against it. The reason is that frozen while was a phenomenon it was only a phenomenon for a specific target audience mostly kids particularly little ladies but boys as well (My sons are fine with it for example but they always been other things as well). It wasn't a movie that truly had massive appeal. To me a true phenomenon is a seismic wave in the cultural universe that breaks all barriers. If we put Frozen on there, we need to put something like Toy Story, The Hunger Games and HP up there. Again those were all HUGE but I don't truly move the cultural consciousness where everyone in their grandmother went to see it and I mean that both literally and figurtively LOL! So again I only go with those three along with A New Hope. Those four movies were truly cultural phenomenons. People who would never go see those movies (IE your grandparents) went to see them because they were that big. Didn't matter it was a space opera that they would never be caught dead there. Or put this way, Red Forman would never go see Frozen at the theater....but he did go see Star Wars!



ladygrey45

Cult followings often struggle to find a massive audience. I also think Dark Tower could get wash away with a July opening as I think a lot of people are intrigued by a Marvel led Spidey movie as at least gotten away from Emo Spidey and gotten back to Peter being a fun loving kid. The response from his apperance in Civil War got rave reviews with some thinking he was the best part of the movie LOL! I As for Power Rangers, I really help it success because that will give more credence to finally doing He-Man (but why why why McG as the director....WHY GOD!??!) but I really think that as disaster written all over it especially it's opening only a week after B&tB even though that will lead into Spring Break for most schools so it's a good spring launch date. I just don't think Power Rangers will be on the menu.

 

Ask me again after the final trailer debuts

I will say this though, 2 billion dollars worldwide, 800 million - 1 billion domestic, this film might break records.

Reasons are Carrie Fisher's last role, Luke Skywalker in action and Yoda, as well as furthering the adventures of Rey, Finn, Poe, and Kylo Ren.

This film will surpass TFA

 

CarboniteSolo

It's also missing the fact it isn't the sequel that people been waiting over 30 years for and Harrison Ford. Ford in the role of Han Solo puts butts in the seats that sometimes would not be there.

Do I think it's possible that it could surpass TFA? Yes. Will it? Extremely unlikely like less then a 10% it does.

 

It could end up like ESB.

Critically the best one in the series and in later years, the one most fondly remembered. But during its run, made the least amount.

 

You have to assume that's a distinct possibility. The third Star Wars movie in three years. 1) It's not sustainable as the kind of massive pop culture event that TFA was. 2) the mediocrity of Rogue One possibly diminished the goodwill general audiences were feeling after TFA. 3) just general lessening of interest. the boredom of familiarity. 4) a strong dollar hurting international revenue. I'd put the emphasis on 1 and 4 obviously.

Nevertheless I don't see anything challenging The Last Jedi at the box office in 2017. Are there any unknown knowns? Foreign releases that could sweep every market but the U.S.? An unexpected hit.

Guardians of the Galaxy 2 is an outlier. I think it's poised to gain considerably on the box office of the first movie. There's the rising star of Chris Pratt, the pop culture phenomenon of Groot. A whole lot of upside potential in foreign markets.

 

All of my money.

 

So is that just your opinion or alternate facts?

 

My emphasis is on 1 and 3 as I noted and maybe 4. The Last Jedi is going to make less than TFA domestically and internationally. I don't know very many people who disagree with that statement. The Last Jedi will likely make more than Rogue One domestically and internationally. I know even fewer people who would disagree with that statement.

So, there's a whole lot of room between $528 - $936.6 million in the U.S. and $521 - $1,131.5 million outside the U.S.

$650 million U.S. /$790 million foreign seems about right to me, taking into account in particular the strong dollar.

 

I agree with you. Carrie's last role, and all the people who wanted to see Luke in TFA--that payoff still hasn't happened yet. On top of all of that, there are a lot of young boys and girls who are hyped Rey taking steps towards being a Jedi. If the movie performs, that's where you're going to get a lot of repeat viewing. TFA's reception in China wasn't groundbreaking so if that remains consistent or improves, they've got a chance at topping TFA.

 

so there are a few people who disagree I guess

 

Rylo Ken, I love that picture of Winona Ryder, lol.

Everyone wants to know what happens after Rey offers his lightsaber back to him. What will Luke say to her? This film will surprise a lot of people, which will make people want to come back and see it again and again. It opens in December, that helps too. You put the Han Solo trailer in front of this film exclusively for the first week. Fans will go nuts over this.

There are so many factors why this film will make more money, just wait and see.

 

There's potential for a great story. TFA had a lot of problems. Terrible, confusing superweapon, brazen revisiting of the ANH plot. And yet it was a lot of fun. The success of TFA guarantees that Last Jedi is going to be another recapitulation of OT beats, something that certainly isn't going to hurt the box office potential. Maybe help it.

And yet, I don't think Last Jedi is going to be the big cultural event that TFA was. You're not going to recapture that so quickly, despite the death of Fisher. I don't think general audiences care as much about that as we do.

 

There is no "guarantee" that TLJ will be a recapitulation of OT beats. Indeed, most of what we know suggests that Johnson is going in a different direction. Sure, we have an old Jedi master on a remote planet, etc. But this film is not going to do what TFA did.

 

you seem very confident about that. But in terms of box office, the more rehashy it is, the better.