ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

thoughts on Coco?

I just went to book tickets for an 11:20am showing (which starts in an hour), and we were the first 5 people to buy tickets (they have reserved seating). I was really surprised by this.

Granted it's Wed, but most schools are out today and families love late morning showings, generally.

 

With all due respect to these articles, there was only one meaningless number offered and that was the $200M number. It doesn’t mean anything lol. The rest were all in favor of TLJ including one added after I posted. 94 versus 92 awareness from TLJ to TFA and 65 interest versus 60. That means not only do MORE people know about it (in contrast to the anecdote here about someone’s coworkers being clueless; must work in a cave) but more want to see it.

What that article actually communicated is that TLJ is tracking off the charts with some of the strongest numbers ever compiled. They can’t tell whether that means $190M or $275M. Nobody can. You can’t track a record that hasn’t happened yet. Nobody who is sane is going to publish an article saying “TLJ to be highest grossing movie ever opening weekend.” First, that’s not what the tracking says, it only can indicate interest not actual follow through. Second, predicting things that haven’t happened before is rather foolish. That’s why TFA never was tracking anywhere close to its final weekend total.

There’s no chance of TLJ being at $175M though get out of here with that! Beauty and the Beast made that and it clearly wasn’t filling a lot of seats. I saw that movie opening night in IMAX at 10 pm and we had 5 people in the theater. FIVE. Opening night. Yeah it’s a family movie blah blah whatever but you couldn’t find an IMAX theater in this country opening weekend for SW that doesn’t have 50 seats sold by show time I don’t care if it’s at 5 am Sunday morning lol.

 

If TLJ is as good and shocking as Disney thinks it is, then it could fetch additional revenue from repeated viewings and WoM.

 

FWIW, I finally saw Spidey HC last night using Redbox. It was...eh. Cute I guess. I personally like origin stories myself. My wife thought it was cute. Keaton was great in the non fight scenes. Those fight scenes were generic but then again that's okay I guess.. Didn't like the POV stuff in the beginning. Interested in seeing if they make a Scorpion since he was always my favorite Spidey villain when I was little.

How do they use those polling numbers to come up with tracking numbers? Seems the $200 million is just a throwaway number which, as Bowen said, doesn't really mean much except for going with the "flow" of predictions. It's more of a sensiible reasonable number than anything else.

 

Also are they using the new math?

Cause 200 wouldnt be second all time, it
would be fourth (avengers 207 jw 208)

And to answer someones question, under aou (191) would be shocking to me unless we have avatar weather...

As for 'overpredicting' thor came right under rhe tracking i saw....'it' might go down as the most underpredicted opening ever..

And i gave the reasoms for jls failure....b v s.made half its audience on ow...a huge fall off should have been expected ( though not as much)

Tfa is not b v s and tlj is not justice league

 

It’s just a number they throw out because it looks good and round. It’s not hugely meaningful but I think nice to see a month out. Star Wars so far is 2/2 with beating tracking by a good deal. Rogue One hit tracking at $135M as I recall. Not that close. TFA was $180M at first (LOL yeah right guys). So by that logic TLJ should make $270M OW hehe.

The tracking makes me excited because I hate predictable things and this sounds like a good unpredictable thing. It really could be anywhere from $185M to $250M I think. We just won’t know until we see.

 

Dont think original avengers tracking was anywhere near 207 either..

But original tracking for it at about the same time from release had it at 50 million for the weekend and it made 50 in previews and full day friday alone

 

Just to be devil's advocate, AOU was projected to be higher than Avengers. But again, I think that's just a guess. It was reasonable at the time to presume AOU might do that.

If TLJ dazzles and surprises in a good way, the repeat viewings could actually be something to watch for, especially among fans. Maybe more Bowens running around seeing it 40 times.

 

Aou didnt hit 200 cause reviews and reception were luke warm mild hot at best.

Still its percentage fall off to avengers one ow wasnt very big..its legs werent very good

 

True, but wasn't there also a big boxing match that weekend or something? I don't know because I don't follow and don't know how much that matters.

It was as if people anticipated the Thanos battle and AOU was an interim film. It faded off but not because people hated it. Maybe it was more that it didn't offer enough new.

That's one thing we keep seeing and hearing about TLJ which should make things different. TLJ just screams "new" and "bold" and "intense" taking things in a new direction from TFA. It doesn't feel like the same ol' same ol' and that will help it IF the critics reflect that. With a few exceptions, reviews really do matter a LOT.

 

One of the things that made TFA such a BO monster was it drew people who never go to the movies, or rarely to the movies, sometimes for repeat viewings.

What happens to this audience if the critical consensus/buzz/WoM on TLJ is that it's better than TFA?

 

Thats what im saying...another reason the estimate is too comservative...but also crunching numbers in relation to tfa is not pointing to a near 20 percent ow falloff

At leaet this will epically put an end to 'no movies open big in december'

Just movies that dont have sw attached to it

 

The only number I will believe is when Disney provides official information from presales.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...aims-for-near-record-200m-debut/#1a01fd391190

 

I honestly would be as surprised if it beats TFA's opening weekend as I would if it falls to about 180/170 million OW. If it does come close to TFA's numbers or beats it it just shows how well received Rey, Finn, and Poe were as characters.

 

I don't think TlJ's opening weekend is going to be 20% off TFA with those astounding metrics. What those interest and first choice numbers represent is the huge level of goodwill generated by TFA. Unaided recall will increase obviously as the tv spot and merchandising tie ins kick into higher gear. It's possible that terrible reviews and a massive winter storm in multiple locations could drive it below $200 million, but I think it has a shot at getting close to TFA's OW numbers.

 

If it does get close to those numbers or beats them we are almost assured of getting Star Wars movies for the next 50 years.

 

That's the big piece of the puzzle that has been curiously missing. I have no idea why Disney or anyone else isn't reporting this.

I keep going back to the Fandango site. I keep looking at random HUGE theaters and while I see an average of 5 sold out/nearly sold out shows (exception being handicapped and front row if that), the theater capacities are SHOCKINGLY low.

When we had our old friend 2 years ago pounding us with data that ended up being accurate, the average seat number was at least 200. I'd say the average is closer to 150 seats due to renovations. As I have said several times, I don't blame studios like Disney for demanding higher %'s of revenues. Theaters make most of their money off of concessions and can raise prices at will. Ticket sales, meanwhile, have not risen to make up for the large reduction of seats. They lose millions as a result. JL probably would have made around $110 million.

Another piece of the puzzle missing, although we can make a solid guess, is the number of theaters. I'd say at least 4100. But let's look at these numbers for a moment.

Let's say the average % of the highest 5 screens per theater on Thursday night is 95%. That's the HIGHEST and most theaters probably average that number already for TLJ.

4100 x 5 x 150 x $9 x 95% = $26.3 million

Now let's add in 50% for the next 5 highest showings to balance it out. That's $13.8 million. Total = $40.1 million. This is as of NOW. This does not take into consideration what happens in the next 23 days.

But all in all, that's still a long way off. It would appear based on reserved seats that TLJ has made at leas $30-$40 million so far.

 

jedijax you must be taking into account some pretty small theaters if you are saying the average seating capacity is 150/200. I never paid attention before but I just counted up some of the seats in the theater I am going to see the movie in at there are around 150 seats in just the very front section. The total seating is probably well over a thousand for the theater I am going to.

As I have said before there are about three theaters in my city that are extremely busy (and those are the ones with the seating in the thousand+ range) and probably 90/95% of the people in my city use those three theaters and all the other ones struggle to stay open. I'm sure it is that way in most cities where most people just use some specific theaters,

 

Most I've seen have around 17 seats across and about 8-10 rows. IMAX 3D theaters are the ones that are over 200, but the numbers are those are fewer. But there are theaters with 100 or even 50. So the 150 is around average.

 

Fwiw i dont think tlj ow will surpaas tfa and never have. But the closeness of the numbers deadline used dont indicate it will be anywhere as low as the 200 they predict

 

What the reduced seating WILL do is increase the percent of tickets sold. I am not sure if the two factors will cancel each other out. I have a Regal 19 IMAX and an AMC 24 IMAX theater close to me. Checked on their seating. While tickets for Thursday are going fast, I still count (even in the IMAX stadiums) 10 rows of 17 seats each. I'm not seeing anything with 200. I think those are few and far between now.

Tickets be theater will be great for TLJ. % tickets per theater will be phenomenal to out-of-this-world. But $200 million OW is still not a 100% guarantee.

 

Yeah those are tiny theaters. Kind of theaters you would most often see in small towns. Or ones from cities that don't get used much.

 

Imo only way 200 isnt t locked is if the movie gets bad reviews bad weather and bad reception.

Likewise if all those things swing the other way we are looking at a signifigantly higher number