ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

What about local multiplexes? In Australia, at least, you'll have a multiplex with maybe eight or more screens in a shopping centre; the one in my area has cinemas seating between 200 and 300 people--and I'm on the outskirts of the metropolitan area. I'd be kind of surprised to see less than 200 seats.

 

I also love that peoples awareness factor of tlj is higher then tfa. Like i said numerous times lack of hype does not mean lack of anticipation or exitement...

 

Well, tbh, I've mostly looked at big complexes in and around cities like Chicago, LA, Houston, etc. Many many many near sold out shows which is great. But 200 seats is max these days for most multiplexes. There may be 1 or 2 screens that have over 200 seats per big multiplexes. But that's out of 15-20 screens.

 

The theater I saw JL in(The Grand here in Conroe) has about 15x15. I've not been in too many theaters with only 10 rows of seats. Most seem to have 15-18. That's not counting the ones with floor seating. Even the smallish theater I saw Rogue One with my mom and daughter in Tyler had 12-14 rows... Not in the industry but I am going to guess a theater's goal is 300ish seats(standard seating, not super comfy recliners).

 

This article really underplays the return of Luke Skywalker IMO. As much as i love Rey and Finn and am looking forward to the movie in general it is Luke that I am most looking forward to see

 

Well if 200 is truly average, then TLJ has $50 million in previews locked. If that is true, then $36 million has already been made just from presales for Thursday. That doesn't include any other day. From what I have seen, despite the number of seats, is that at least 5 showings in every theater are 95-100% full as we speak (unless there are less than 5 screens in a theater). But there are those with 10 showings that are 95-100% full so 5 full showings are a great average.

Then, just for kicks, throw in 5 more screens at 50% full.

4100 (theaters) x 200 (seats) x 5 (full showings) x $9.00 (ticket average) = $36.9 million

5 more at 50%= $18.4 million.

Blam! That's $55.3 milion. Subtract $5 million for the sake of being conservative and Thursday previews are $50 million based on everyone's claim of 200 average seats.

Not sure if Friday "proper" will be higher or lower than Thursday but it's safe to say it will be at leas a little higher. Let's say $55 million (not quite what TFA was). That's a $105 million OD.

Add another $110 million for Saturday and Sunday combined and we're at $215 million.

So the 200 seat thing makes $200 million conservative. The debate is about (1) seats and (2) unforeseen events such as blizzards. Oh and JL level reviews which I doubt.

 

If is a 105 od its going over 220

Btw forgot to add bladerunner during my post on predictions......despite its critical acclaim its bo predictiin of 50 million. Was absurd when u consider thats about half of what the original (a flop) made adjusted..

No large fan base or even medium fan base was waiting 35 years for blade runner 2

 

Yeah no way most theaters are 200 seats per auditorium sorry. If you live in a huge city maybe but that’s not reality even in Portland and this is a top 30 city and one of the fastest growing in America. As I mentioned my nearest theater is 16 screens but it’s about 50 seats per auditorium. All recliners and very spaced out. The bigger 18 screen multiplex is maybe 250 seats for IMAX but the other screens more like 150-175. It’s the biggest theater overall. Most theaters around here I would say are about 150 with the bigger ones 200, smaller 50-100.

 

Well I live in an average size city. There are several theaters in town but really only about three that people go to. Those three are far far far bigger than anything you guys are talking about here. I wasn't joking when I said there were about 150 seats just in the very front section of the individual theater I got tickets for. Figured it would be the same way in most cities where they would have massive theaters with the type of capacity of the one I go to.

 

Here is a pic of a view inside one of the theater chain I go to. Not the same one I go to but from the same chain. I think the individual theater I got tickets to is even bigger than this. Thought this theater size was pretty normal. Based on what you guys are talking about though this would be like the top 1%.

 

Out of all the concerns of bo for sw i really dont get the seating thing....seriously i dont think its decreased that much in two years.

More worried about the longer running time leading to less showtimes

 

Thanks-I thought I was being crazy!

Bowen do you think this was the case 2 years ago?

Like I keep saying, the % of theaters being soaked up won't be a problem for TLJ. Those numbers are crazy huge already. If you were to look at $$$ per seat spent, I think that Thursday will reflect VERY close numbers to TFA.

BUT, there's also spillover. Less availability means (perhaps) people will have to spill over to following days.

Do I still think TLJ will make $200 or more million in its OW? Absolutely. But I won't say it is guaranteed. Will it be #1 for the year in OW? I'd say that I can guaranteed.

jamminjedi23 Yes that is huge and it probably 1-5% of theaters.

 

I got plenty of my seats in my theatre 2 years ago and today...strangely i went om dec 22nd 2015 a day it made about 38 million and there was 13 people there...tfa managed fo survive

 

Yeah I'm a Portlander as well and I was thinking I must live in an alien city compared to what people were saying. I've never been in a theater with 1000 seats, lol. Most of the time I see movies in a recliner and there aren't 150 - 200 seats in those auditoriums. Even in the big theaters that have multiple screens with 150 - 200 seats, they tend to have smaller auditoriums on site for movies on the way out and/or don't sell as many tickets.

 

Guess my theater going experience has always been in the top 1% then and I didn't realize it was the top 1%, lol. On the bright side to having these 1000+ seat theaters is that they don't have to dedicate as many screens to one particular movie. They can run TLJ and still have plenty of space left open to get business from people who might want to watch something else. I imagine with the 150-200 seat stadiums they have to almost dedicate their entire facility for a time to running a movie like TLJ.

 

To get $200 mill OW for a sequel is pretty dam good - it will be the first ever sequel to top $200 mill.......

 

Pretty sure jw was a sequal. Pretty sure tfa was too

 

Hey, sweet, a fellow Portlander! Haha that's funny. Small world. Yeah I live in Beaverton now technically (I lived in The Pearl during TFA's run, so saw it at Lloyd for the most part, IMAX), so my primary theaters are Century 16 with all recliners and about 50 seats per auditorium, they are very small now for seating, and Bridgeport, where I don't think most of those auditoriums are 200 seats. They look to me about 150 to 175 if I'm guessing, but it's possible a few of them may be in the 200 range and a few may be more like 100. I believe I counted the IMAX once when I was bored at Bridgeport and I thought it was 225 to 250.

An auditorium that seats 1,000 would be definitely the top of the 1% actually. I think Regal L.A. Live, which used to be my "go to" theater when I lived in downtown Los Angeles, seats about 1,200 and it's one of the biggest in America. I can't recall how many Mann's Chinese seats but I go there for each Star Wars movie. I have my company's annual meeting in Los Angeles early January so I have been more and more making it into a Star Wars focused trip not just business. The first time, I saw TFA at Mann's Chinese with my editor. Last year, I saw Rogue One at both Mann's Chinese and AMC's CityWalk in 70mm IMAX, which was amazing! This time, I'm leaving my girlfriend in Portland so I can spend an extra two days in Los Angeles (she was bored last year attending our meetings) and hit up TLJ in probably 3 theaters. I'm thinking Saturday is Mann's Chinese, Sunday is The Egyptian, and Monday after work meetings I'm not sure yet, maybe Hollywood ArcLight or undecided. I'll have to give it some more research.

jedijax I don't know if I think it's a big deal about so many theaters switching to recliner seats. Yes and no. Yes because you're right it has been a much bigger trend the last two years, I've certainly noticed it around here, as I believe both Evergreen (a Regal cinema) and Century 16 switched to mostly recliner seats or all recliner seats. No because I think to be honest it's going to kill everything else in the market when big movies come out. Instead of TLJ occupying 5 or 6 screens like TFA did at the Century 16, it's going to wipe out 8-10 screens, which means virtually everything that didn't just come out is going to be pushed out of theaters. It won't hurt TLJ because the theater will adjust to meet the demand of the biggest movie. At that time, if they can only keep 5 other movies in their theater or 6 other movies, really who cares? Nothing comes out in the first half of December anyway, so that gives them space to keep for instance whatever big Indian language film they are playing (lol as I mentioned that's a big thing at this theater), perhaps Coco, maybe Justice League, a specialty fare type of film, maybe Wonder, etc. It gives them enough flexibility in alternative programming but let's be honest 85% of the box office that weekend is Star Wars.

I'm curious, is IMAX seriously going to roll with Justice League until December 14? I personally cannot believe that. I mean Thor 3 got two weeks before JL, and JL is doing significantly worse. In all likelihood it will fall like a rock this weekend despite Thanksgiving, and the tumble the weekend after that is going to be epic. If I was IMAX, I'd definitely be asking Disney if we could run a one-week special engagement with TFA. There's no way they can make almost any money on JL that final week before TLJ, it just can't happen. Their auditoriums will sit empty for a week. ANYTHING would be better than that, whether it's bringing TFA back (which would actually put butts in seats, given fans are anxiously waiting for the sequel), whether it's giving Thor 3 one more week, or maybe there's a third option, some other re-release from earlier this year. I don't know, I'm just thinking if I was in charge of business operations at IMAX there's no way Justice League is going to hog the screens while it's underperforming and not contractually obligated.

 

Bowen ~ Ha that's my neck of the woods. Cedar Hills Crossing/Century 16 is my primary theater. I go to Bridgeport mainly just for IMAX. We also use Valley for cheap movies + beer, or once in a while Cinetopia, which also has recliner seats that certainly don't fit 150 people per screen.

I agree with you that less seats per screen won't change income. On the contrary, it helps make the super expensive movie tickets less of a hindrance. At least we know we'll be comfortable. They just make up for it with more demand, i.e., put the hits on more screens. The less successful movies are no longer taking up space with mostly empty theaters.

 

TFA multiplier (dom. total / opening) = 3.78
RO multiplier (dom. total / opening) = 3.43

200 million x 3.78 = 756 million
200 million x 3.43 = 686 million

 

The only differentiation in pricing that I recall is in the theaters that have not just recliners, but couches and tables with in-theater servers. It's a couple extra bucks per ticket there. It's possible that when the theaters switched over to recliners, they upped all the prices generally. It seems like the tickets are always getting more expensive though.

 

Bowen you bring up an interesting point. What exactly DOES happen to IMAX theaters in IMAX dry spells? Summer is no problem but I never thought about the dilemma of having wasted IMAX theaters in times when one film is burned out and well before another one opens.

Hence why they are starting to go out?

MagnarTheGreat If we put TLJ halfway between TFA and R1, it gets a 3.6 multiplier. Personally, I don't see it getting that multiplier but a 3.5X is reasonable.

To everyone, just for kicks go to reserved seating Fandango, randomly click on a theater (most have the seat selections prior to the buy tickets option) and peek around and you will be amazed at the sold out shows.

 

756 is my pretty much my prediction just think opening a little stronger legs a little weaker

 

Haha that’s funny we are basically neighbors! I live off Murray near Scholls so Century 16 is a few miles away but still the closest theater besides Cinetopia. I don’t want to get my blood pressure up talking about how much I hate Cinetopia but let’s just say any theater marketing itself as a premium experience with broken down seats, very poor sound, and servers coming in and out in front of you 27 times per screening is truly for the ultimate alcoholic or casual moviegoer I really like the comfortable seating at Century 16 and my GF far prefers it but even she’s finally started to realize why I drive to Bridgeport for movies important to me. The sound at Century is all over the board. We watched The Foreigner and it was so quiet I had to go complain. I was going to tough it out because I like a movie to play nice and loud so I thought hmm well, maybe it’s just me. But my GF said it’s really quiet, do you want to say something?! So I did. Didn’t help much it was still quiet. Then Bad Moms Christmas was nice and loud oddly when that’s not a movie I would need loud. They just seem inconsistent so I don’t trust them with important movies. I use MoviePass there a lot though and most movies I’d rather be comfortable than have perfect sound so whatever.

I made up my mind about a year ago that I see every big movie in IMAX though. Life is too short for me to waste my time seeing event films on anything less than the highest quality presentation. I look forward to some of these movies for months and all it takes is some nonsense to ruin the experience. I’m picky with my movies and how they’re shown I admit.

jedijax is right. I’m going to my 2nd TLJ screening preview night at 12:30 am IMAX and it’s full besides the lower section which is filling up too. The middle seats in the bottom section are taken. That’s crazy! That’s the 3rd showing in IMAX that day.