ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Some SW fans get angry if you call SW science fiction, but to be honest the definition of sci fi is more than large enough to encompass it. It's definitely not hard sci fi though.

 

This is not everything with Germany and Europe in general. Sci-fi has a harder stand here. The acceptance and interest here is like this:

1. Fantasy (Harry Potter universe, KOTR universe, Hunger Games and fairy tales)
2. Comic action (mainly Marvel, but also DC and Transformers) it is in very close competition with Fantasy
3. Horror (like Aliens, Halloween, Conjuring and million others) it has a big fan community
4. Sci-fi (like Star Wars, 2001, Interstellar and other more serious technical or drama approach)

yes, Star Wars is also fairy tale, but had a very technical/visual approach. At least the new ones lack a lot of the fairy tale so far.

 

Out of all those 12 movies the only ones that I think will gross well above 500 million internationally are GotG2, Woman Wonder, Transformers and Spider-Man, with War for the Planet of the Apes and PotC 5 being possible contenders. Both GotG2 and Transformers will hit the billion dollar club respectively, with Spider-Man coming close with around 900 million. I can see Wonder Woman reaching around 800 million.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes was a massive success with its 710 million box office haul, but I think the third act will struggle to reach those numbers in this busy summer season. There's just too much else going on, and it looks as if the third movie is a bit too similar to the previous one. I'm predicting a very good score on RT though, probably the best out of all those on the list.

When it comes to PotC 5, I think it's been too long since the previous installment. The franchise just isn't poplar anymore, plus Johnny Depp isn't popular anymore. The critics will probably hate it, and audiences might not like it. I smell Terminator Genisys on this one - It will flop domestically but be a success overseas.

As for the others, what can I say. King Arthur will flop, but might see minor success in Europe and Russia, total box office around 150 million. Alien Covenant will open strong but fall quickly, and end up with around 300-350 million. Baywatch will open to huge numbers domestically, and if people like it it might actually end up grossing around 300 million. The Mummy will be a MASSIVE flop and only gross around 100 million. Cars 3 will probably have a decent run, but won't reach above 500 million. Despicable Me 3 will see the same fate as Cars 3 (a second Minions movie would probably gross more, people prefer stupid movies). The Valerian film looks promising but it will suffer from being an unknown brand combined with fierce competition, and end up with around 200-250 million (but hey, at least that's enough to greenlit a sequel).

The only one I don't know how to judge is Dunkirk. It's like a joker (no pun intended).

 

The trailer for Dunkirk reminds me of the first time I saw the "Titanic" trailer. I'm not saying this is going to be the biggest movie of all time, but it's the most original-looking WW2 story we've seen in awhile. It's the movie of defeat and successful retreat. With the very youngest living allied veterans of WW2 now hitting their 90s, there's no time like the present for this movie. Nolan has the potential to hit one out of the park, James Cameron style. Don't know if that's this movie. We'll see. But whatever the next "biggest movie of all time" is, it won't be a sequel.

 

$13 million for BatB Monday. Wow that's pretty amazing!

$80 million 2nd weekend? Should be at least very close to $300 million after the 2nd weekend!

I'd say $400 million is guaranteed. I'm upping my projection to $450-$480 million.

 

no idea why so much praise for Dunkirk? It is another depressing movie in which everyone dies.

 

Some people enjoy those types of movies!! I might see it myself..

 

I don't think Dunkirk will beat Avatar, let alone reach above 1 billion. That's a long-shot. In order to be the biggest movie of all time, you need to have something original. I'm not saying Dunkirk doesn't look original, but there's a LOT of WW2 movies. And a lot of great ones, too.

In order to be the biggest movie of all time, you need to show audiences something that they have never seen before.

 

Agreed!

 

Even though it's predictable material in one sense, having Nolan as director makes it completely unpredictable for me. Visually, I'm thinking it will also influence other filmmakers. Also, exciting cast! Tom Hardy and Cillian Murphy are consistently good, Mark Rylance was amazing in Bridge of Spies, and my girlfriends are excited for Harry Styles. Though agreed that it will not be among Nolan's higher-grossing projects.

 

Rylo Ken But Titanic was that big because it was an epic romance. They didn't do epic romances since, I dunno, Doctor Zhivago in the 60s? There were only romcoms as movies with a romance in its center, but all big, SFX-laden stuff was not romance, though it had obligatory trophy kiss at the end. So Titanic catered to a huge underserved audience and changed the way movies are made because it turned female audience into Hollywood's most desirable target group (previously, blockbusters were male-oriented). And before some fans jump on me with the obligatory "not all women care for romance", it's true but it's also true that there's huge audience that does. And was waiting for an epic one. And when it happened, they made it into the biggest hit of all times.
Beauty and the Beast is a monster hit for the same reason - it's an epic romance, not an action/other genre movie, where romance is just plot C or worse. Avatar was also a romance in a sci fi setting. Still the biggest movie of all times worldwide.

My point is, Dunkirk isn't really comparable because different genres and we had WW2 movies recently (hacksaw Ridge Inglorious Bastards, Fury, Unbroken). That audience isn't hungry and underserved.

 

I'm actually surprised Studios didn't create more epic romance films after Titanic's mega success.

 

cerealbox We got POTC (romance on high seas), AOTC ("Titanic in space" - GL), Pearl Harbor (that was supposed to be Titanic 2), Avatar, etc. What happened is that some genres that used to be male oriented got romantic repackaging where romance became the focal point rather than a side plot. POTC (pirate genre), Avatar/AOTC/ROTS (sci fi, space opera), Twilight (horror), Pearl Harbor (war). So that's different.

 

Dunkirk has a smart July 21st opening, after 3 weekends of Transformers, Spiderman, Despicable Me and War of the Planet of Apes, people are tired of popcorn movies by then and it has rest of July for itself. I would not count out Nolan delivering some of the most spectacular visuals of the year, but yes, in the WW2 genre its hard to impress these days, we seen it all before both at the cinema and on tv. Saving Private Ryan, Band of Brothers etc. I am going to buy a ticket for Dunkirk though, and will probably skip most of the other summer outings, really hard to find anything that excites me. I think TV will be the hot ticket again with new seasons of Game of Thrones. House of Cards and in October another season of Stranger Things.

 

Dunkirk has a relatively happy ending: one of the most successful large scale retreat/evacuations in military history. I get all the points about epic romance. I'll repeat: the next biggest movie of all time isn't likely to be a sequel or an epic romance. It's going to be something unexpected and original. The next Titanic will look nothing like Titanic. But it will have that aura about it. Dunkirk has that aura.

but who knows. It could be even worse than Interstellar, though that would be an incredible feat all by itself.

 

Rylo Ken

Possible, though Avatar was technically the next Titanic and it was a space romance. I'm not counting TFA cause everyone and their mother predicted Star Wars to be gigantic. I'm also not saying that that romance is required for the next Titanic since Star Wars:ANH was Titanic of its time and didn't have it as a central story. Whether Dunkirk is it, we will find out soon enough.

 

Interstellar was perfect and one of the best movies for years.

 

Interstellar was superb for sure.

 

I still imagine what "Pearl Harbor" might have been if it were a good movie. That was meant to be the next Megabudgeted Epic Romance in a Disaster Setting after Titanic, but it was, to say the least, poorly executed.

 

Pearl Harbor was an MTV video stretched into 3 hours. I never miss that movie when it's on TV cause unintentional comedy is delightful. The scene where ridiculously overdressed Beckinsale comes to visit Hartnett in the hangar and then the one where they make love among parachutes are solid comedy gold.

 

Interstellar is a movie so stupid that it's like watching all my brain cells sucked into the event horizon of a black hole.

But anyway, my main point of the list was that Fate of the Furious has a lot of room to itself at the global box office, relative to the mud wrestling pit of May-July.

 

Interstellar was Nolan`s Spielberg moment. It was pretty good, but not a classic.

Fate of the Furious is the 8th installment in the franchise, which should mean weaker box office normally, but i think we could almost say they have rebooted the whole Furious series. Like they did with Jurassic Park. Also remember that China Film, the state owned film distributor / investor is investing money in Furious and its marketing, which should again see some healthy profits in China. Plus Vin Diesel is a big star over there. Surely the only place he is a real star these days. XXX: Return of Xander did $ 164 mill in China.

 

I don't see how Dunkirk will be feel good. Yes the allies managed to get a lot of men out, over a hundred thousand as indeed years later Churchill called it a miracle but really it's going to be a couple hours of the Nazis regrettably being the pants off the good guys. The BEF lost over 68,000 troops, the Brits over 3,000 and all kinds of major weaponry was left behind. Yes Operation Dynamo was a success but what a price to pay. Again I don't see how it is going to be feel good. I mean D-Day was obviously a success but Stephen didn't make Saving Private Ryan a feel good story. It showed war is hell and I think Dunkirk will be in the same fashion.

That all said, I cannot wait to see it. It's one of my must sees at the box office this year. I just love Nolan's work though Interstellar was just okay. It wasn't bad as I was entertained by it but to me it wasn't one of his best works. To me, Inception was way better. That movie was just fabulous. Every time I see it I forget just good of a movie it is LOL! So Dunkirk will be a movie I sneak to see off this summer while taking the family to see Despicable Me 3. Spidey and Wonder Woman are possibilities this summer but they are not a must see like Dunkirk and Despicable Me 3 is.

Haven't seen yesterday's numbers but Beauty & the Beast made $13 million Monday. It is now the number #1 movie domestically for the year. Power Rangers might as well throw in the towel now so Lionsgate can have their accounts start cooking the books early.

 

So Luke02, Beauty did $ 18 mill Tuesday US + $ 18.2 mill overseas, standing at $ 429 mill total. Pretty impressive.

 

It is going to have a $400/1 billion+ split and Disney is going to fire the first major torpedo of the year sticking a huge flag in the sand early on the 2017 box office race. I honestly think no other studio will be able to topple that. Disney is once again going to be competing against itself.