ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

I thought Luke02 didn’t like any of the prequels, had issues with ROTJ, and didn’t like TFA either... am I wrong or thinking of someone else? I mean if you only love 2 of the movies and we are almost at 10, isn’t it time to admit maybe the franchise just isn’t your cup of tea and hasn’t been for decades...? Just curious.

My $227M prediction is looking better and better huh? Told you guys. So certain were you hmmm? TLJ is a monster at the box office, I’m impressed. I’ll be honest I made my $227M prediction because I wanted something bold and it bores me to make a prediction that’s right on the tracking so I wanted to go high or low and wasn’t feeling low. My initial $185M idea months ago was a floor starting point and I would have been happy with that but now it’s looking more like TLJ will be setup so if it has legs, it may finish #2 domestic all time. At worse now I think it’ll be 3rd which is amazing.

 

Before watching, I had this pegged as hitting Jurassic World numbers but after watching I have lowered that significantly - between 1.1 and 1.3 billion globally.

 

they were in the movie?

 

They should have been as a stormtrooper but they were cut, they are in a deleted scene

 

Well the defense now is, "Well kids will love it". Two things:

1. I have yet to find a kid who "love it" including my kids, nephews, godchildren, cousins, kids friends etc. Lots of i really likes but no loves. And really what Star Wars movie they are not going to really like? Kids in 1999 loved Jar Jar Binks.
2. Pixar has been making films adults and kids love for nearly twenty five years. It can be done. My kids and I love Pixar films for the most part. I am honestly more excited for Incredibles 2 then I am Episode IX. Never thought I say that but here I am. Heck parts of me is more excited for Jurassic World 2 then Episode IX. At least it will be action pack instead of two and half hours of standing around.

$215 million seems like the number could be higher.

 

Boards have been closed down again for the past 10 hours or so.

$63 million Saturday. $52 million Sunday is needed to crack $220 million.

While I liked the film, I will say that JJ has a HUGE task on his hands. Not that he will have to "right" things from this movie but he will have to come up with a compelling enough story to make it a great finale. Even though it will do great, TLJ will disenfranchise hardcore fans moving into IX. Confidence for that group will need to be regained. Likewise, I think that JJ et al will need to come right out and tell fans some things they should expect in IX.

I have several ideas on what they can do to make IX better than TLJ. None of the ideas are a rehash but none or out of this world either.

The two people I liked the most in TLJ were Leia and Poe. They need to handle Leia well.

Is this still a spoiler-free thread at this point?

Luke02 JW2 looks horrid.

 

The defense for the movie is not "but it has a great cinemascore!", the defense is "every measurement that is based on actual polling is showing a great reception, while only those that can easily be manipulated and are internet-based without any means of protecting a movie against systematic voting is showing bad numbers". Add the fact that you have the lowest of the low areas of the internet campaigning to bring down the numbers of the movie everywhere, and you already have an answer as for why the rt audience rating is so low.

That isn't to say that there aren't people who dislike it, but those aren't what is driving these numbers.

Just for comparison, this is coming from comscore, you know, the company that is actually responsible for counting the money made the at box office in most countries of the world:
men 25+: 89% positive
men u25: 90% positive
women 25+: 94% positive
women u25: 81% positive
"definately recommend": 79% (which is tremendous)

 

TLJ goes into its first mid week with basically 90% of TFA in the U.S. A phenomenal achievement. But we have to be prepared for a significant downturn in the midweek numbers relative to TFA. This does not give the haters any ammunition. There just aren't as many people on holidays yet. The audience base will be considerably smaller through Thursday.

But it will continue to hold up very well to R1 obviously, and the second weekend will be huge.

 

Watched the movie a second time on Saturday and liked it even more. The issues I had with the movie after the initial viewing didn't seem nearly as bad. The humor which seemed a little jarring at times when watching it for the first time felt like it fit much better once I knew it was coming.

The Canto Bight scene still drags (which was probably put into the movie just to give Finn some screen time) but other than that the movie flows very well. Sure we can say we don't like it because we think Luke should have been handled a different way or all those theories that we spent two years obsessing about should have been taken more seriously. But those aren't real criticisms of the movie and just us fans being upset because are own personal visions for what we wanted to see didn't happen.

In anycase the movie is going to be just fine. It only seems to be a sect of the hardcore fan community that is having a problem with it. Which I imagine they expected because they knew that they were creating a movie that would set some of the hardcore fan base off that obsesses about these characters.

 

Thanks to the bashers, when people leave the theathers they have a positive impression. Because they did not have a headcanon and they did not demand the movie to say what they wanted to hear.

Up there with Empire, ANH and R1 for me. Way up there.

Oh, and in China this will be huge. This is the first Star Wars movie that I think will hit the chinese tastes very well. A lot of action, which they love (see FF8) and overall I think it will do huge numbers in China this time.

 

If it comee in at 215 do i win a prize?
Was my final prediction..

 

219 million according to deadline now

http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-last-jedi-star-wars-opening-box-office-records-1202228444/

 

64 saturday has me feeling it hits 220

 

The fact that it made more on Saturday than it did on Friday tells me that the RT audience score is having very little effect and in fact it is getting very positive word of mouth amongst movie goers.. Most of the people who preordered tickets would have preordered for Thursday and Friday evening.

Edit.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...res-220m-u-s-and-450m-worldwide/#2514f84b546b

Official now I believe. 220 OW.

 

BoxofficeMojo is reporting $220m....already the 10th highest grossing film of 2017 (dom).

 

Deadline even hints at the possibility that the actuals may rise to 223-224m due to how well the matinees are running. Disney severely underestimated TFA on Sunday, so who knows, maybe TLJ can gain a bit more as well

 

Is someone hosting this site out of their garage in Antarctica running a server off a 1998 Celeron professor or something attached to a tin can with a string?! This has been terrible for days now.

Deadline is saying $223-224M is “possible” with the strong matinee business they’re seeing. The closer to my final $227M prediction the better. I’ll have come closer this time around than Rogue One even ($165M versus $155M actual). I’m proud of my predictions, I knew the hype was not much below TFA and I didn’t believe $200M or less for a second.

While Kylo of course is right the good news is the percentage of people off work will increase daily throughout the week not all at once as there are people who get off or take off at random points like starting Wednesday or Thursday. By Friday almost everyone is off setting up a monster weekend 2.

$450M worldwide is a great opening and means my hope for $1.5B looks about as much of a lock as you can get.

 

How does the 450m worldwide compare to TFAs opening?

 

TFA did $529 WW.

 

Just watched it at 1540 on a Sunday afternoon. Packed screening.

I always need a second viewing when a new Star Wars film comes out. This second viewing has cemented just how much I love this film. Genuinely up there with Empire and ANH for me.


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Just watched it at 1540 on a Sunday afternoon. Packed screening.

I always need a second viewing when a new Star Wars film comes out. This second viewing has cemented just how much I love this film. Genuinely up there with Empire and ANH for me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Funny when i looked at the buildimg presales thr last few days before release i knew i was lowballing it with 215...while others were panicking going as low as 185 i was wishimg i went higher (and said so)

 

For what it's worth, the record for opening-weekend sales outside of the U.S. is the $281 million of The Force Awakens (source: Bloomberg), so it seems Jedi's figure of $230 million is not that far behind. But I'm not certain they opened in the same number of markets.

 

Funny that TLJ made as much in three days as Justice League did in five weeks. DC movie fans are as pissed as hardcore Luke fans are now.

 

i posted this on another forum a few minutes ago, since these boards keep crashing:

I checked the available seats at my local cinema (assigned seating) and while there are slightly fewer showings than Sat, there are fewer unsold seats.
I'd guess as an aggregated number for the day, they're at about 90% capacity as of this posting.
Makes me think that the 20% estimated Sat-to-Sun drop might be a bit to too high.

 

If it plays like tfas. First sunday and disney lowballed it (something warner bros did with it too) we might be looking at 225