ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

True. Memorial Day seems like the end of the season now. All the films with real Spring/Summer box office potential are already out by then.

 

Just saw an interesting segment on early morning news about the anticipated release of Frozen 6 years to the day. Went on to say even though Disney has diversified Frozen represents everything Disney holds to their roots.

So I suppose if we look at that context and that Frozen is the prize indeed maybe the switch makes further sense.

 

Off topic but why is the boxing day release time of Lord of the Rings not ever repeated? Is it US specific and less of a holiday than elsewhere?

 

That could also be the case with Avengers to couldn't it? I haven't seen past the 2nd but have the subsequent ones all performed strongly or improved?

Back to my comment before I can see the reasoning for Frozen at Christmas and for Disney to not want to dilute their activities pushing multiple assets where one is seen as their core business to shareholders etc.

I think EP9 will drop for all the said reasons. And more so if EP8 is the fan wanted darkness etc. But maybe its moved back to prop mid year up if there is a fear of Avengers underperforming.

 

Thanks for answering answer that. I'm not in the US. Lord of the Rings was still released on Boxing day though wasn't it or was it your Christmas day? People don't go to movies Christmas day where I am. Theatres are closed.

 

I completely disagree. Expecting a sizeable drop when everything has been going very well is like throwing it under the bus. Same can be said about Avengers. Pirates-now that's a franchise that probably won't hit $300 million domestic again, but SW has full potential to get $700 million or at least high $600's domestic if it is released at the right time.

Something's going to change. Place all bets on the first 3 weeks of release is unreasonable. I'm still curious to see whether there is something going on with Avengers 4 since the SW9 announcement came out right after they announced that A4 will not be filmed simulataneously with Infinity Wars.

 

Keep in mind Avengers 4 is the send off to the Phase 1 Avengers. It's pretty much the swan song of Iron Man, CA, Thor and Hulk at least as main players. I could see Thor and Hulk sticking around more but really after Avengers 4, the new class of Spidey, Ant-Man, Black Panther, Doctor Strange, Captain Marvel with the GOTG being kinda of a x-factor with the group. Therefore I think Avengers 4 can see a uptick as it will be branded as the swan song for the original core Avengers. Be similar to how HP: Deathly Hollows with Part 2 being the bigger movie financially.

I always assume the ST would play out the same way. I figure it be similar to the PT & OT financially speaking with the first episode with a "lull" in the second episode while the finale ramps up a bit. I don't know so much now. Again Disney is figuring SW fatigue might be kicking and the lid for Episode IX might be set regardless of when it released in May or December so why not dominate May and throw up numbers that no other studio will catch before the summer even really starts.

They have a insanely busy slate that year, like OMG crazy. As it stands, this is what Disney as slated in 2019:

March:
- Captain Marvel
- Untitled Live Action Fairy Tale #1

April:
- Untitled Disney Cartoon Movie #1

May:
- Avengers 4
- Episode IX

June:
- Toy Story 4

July:
- Spidey 2

November:
- Frozen 2

December:
-Untiteld Live Action Fairy Tale #2

IMHO that is the most ambious year by a studio ever. You have four movies (Avengers 4, Episode IX, Toy Story IV and Frozen 2) that would be any other studios biggest flagship movie therefore they would only release one of those every few years since it's essentially their megaweapon. Disney is releasing four of those....in one year! Oh and they also have to fit in two Marvel movies, two live action movies (which one of them could be The Lion King and if so, that will be HUGE....bigger then Beauty IMHO) and another Disney cartoon.

Therefore it's really a insane calendar, unlike anyone has ever had to put together. So putting Episode IX Memorial Day weekend seems to fit into the rest of the slate best as it's going to do it's business regardless of it's May or December so why not put it out early and throw the flag down before the midyear its. Plus they will own May just like they will in 2017 and 2018 which they might feel is the best month to roll two big movies out.

That all said? I am still not willing to bet that May 2019 we will be seeing Episode IX. I got a funny feeling that might get moved to "delays". Will have to see how it plays out. For now, it seems like Disney is very firm on the shift.

jedijax

I am a Star Wars nut and even I must admit four movies in four years = a bit of overkill. Plus too we talk about how what helped TFA from a Megahit to Ludicrous Hit was nostalgia. The nostalgia is going to be gone by 2019. Han is gone, ditto Leia (RIP Carrie) leaving Luke as the only main legnedary character left...maybe (personally I think Luke's arc got insanely shifted after the death of Carrie as I think now Luke will indeed make it to Episode IX and either killing Snoke, who took everything from him or actually make it and simply have a off screen death before Episode X....or whatever they do next which IMHO won't be a Episode but that is here nor there) So Disney must figure either it won't matter what release date it has, the cap will kind be set by then. And if it's a second once in a generation hit? It won't matter if it's release in Februrary or August. It will do Ludricious Hit regardless.

MS1

They are hurting. The Movie Houses are starting to really feel the crunch of people wanting more and more to watch their content at home. People really don't come out to the movies like they used to. The tentpole films really carry the box office now. Look at this way. What does really big business outside of comic book movies (again Star Wars fits into that box in terms of a financial perspective) and kiddie flicks? Nothing really. Horror flicks are the best bang for your buck in Hollywood but they are not huge money makers for the Movie Houses. Meanwhile romantic comedies/dramas have pretty much died off as huge money makers for the Houses, ditto buddy buddy comedies, dramas etc. All that money is now on TV. There is a reason why Movie Houses are going all out to get customers back on a regular basis outside of the "event movies". Everything from recliner seats, full menus, alochol etc are now being offered at many houses to try and get people back into the theater more.

The area where they feeling the most? Teenagers. They simply do not come out to the theater like they used to. I see it everyday at work. The kids barely know what is coming out half the time. Meanwhile my friends and I used to see a movie pretty much every single Friday night when we were teenagers. Even if we had work or a sporting game was on (like the Bulls) we manage to work around it as we often to a late showing of something. Today though? Unless they can watch it on their I-Pad in their bedrooms at home with their earbugs (or in their basement with a significant other), a lot of them are not interested. That is when it comes to pop culture at the high school I teach at, you better know what is on Neflix much more then what is playing at the movie theaters. Example: The talk these past few weeks has been about "13 Reasons Why", not "Furious 9". Quite a few kids saw "Furious 9" but that pales in comparison to many already watch or are watching "13 Reasons Why". Again if it's something they can pull up on their I-Pad, they are much more likely to watch.

 

Put like that there could be very much of a financial impact where people just can't afford to see everything. Assuming the don't get actual theatre fatigue.

Lol. It not that long ago when the death knell was being called on traditional theatres.

 

While this is true I don't blame people one bit for not going to the theaters as much anymore. Paying 10 dollars to watch a movie (plus food and drinks on top of that) is ridiculous.

Let me put it this way. You can watch an entire months worth of movies off of netflix for the price of a single movie (plus a coke) at the theater. Unless it is a movie people really want to see there is little reason to not just wait a few extra months to get it off of the online movie rental sites.

 

It's a pretty sad state of affairs if they assume SW is fading after having he most successful movie of all time followed by the most successful spin off of all time. I'm not buying that theory.

 

I think the only people who are saying that are people that didn't like TFA or Rogue One.

 

Luke02 I agree with your point "I am a Star Wars nut and even I must admit four movies in four years"

Whist I don't think past success could be repeated in the same manner I do feel like the old 3 year spacing between movies allowed StarWars to grow and it be a wider part of peoples lives. I'm wondering if something has been lost in the experience? Oddly something I have never considered is that it makes more sense to continue TLJ so much closer than TFA for the fact that the actors have aged a little less.

 

I like TFA. I gave it a solid B even though it has it's giant warts and that will never go away.

I really like Rogue One a lot. I gave it a B+/A- with the only downgrade was the first third was choppy and kinda blah. But other then that, I really liked it as the last third was absolutely epic.

It has nothing to do with those movies, just the reality of the situation. It will be the fourth Star Wars movie in four years. Really hard not to have a little fatigue kick in and again. Han is gone. Leia is gone. Luke is only left and who knows how much he is in Episode IX. Therefore to think it's going to do OMG business in 2019 is really not thinking realistically. It's going to do monster business, $500-750 million domestically. But anything beyond that? Unlikely. It won't have the nostalgia of TFA, won't have the freshness, Han is gone aka Harrison Ford puts butts in the seats as Harrison Ford etc.

I think a couple are just looking at this wrong. Disney is simply betting on the cap of Star Wars Episode IX to be in that $500-750 million range and it will get that whether it's release in May or December. The odds of it making more and reach OMG TFA money ($900 million plus domestically) plus are remote so why not go with a dominate May and let their live action fantasy movie for December roam more?

Again it's not saying Episode IX cannot do TFA type business at all. Not in the slightest. All it's simply saying is this:

Episode IX:

$500-750 million: 100% guarantee basically regardless of release date!
Anything beyond that truly outside of perhaps closer to $800 million: Unlikely.

Again I think a few are simply looking at it wrong. It's more about Disney understanding the market for Star Wars is going to stablize after this inital rush then it's suddenly "downturning". I know a few posters will see Episode IX making only around $700 million as a "downturn" but it isn't. It's simply the market readjusting itself. There is a ebb and flow to this. Disney knows that.

MS1

My wife and I used to be regular movie goers. Now? We only see the true event movies and stuff for the kiddies. I might go sneak off to see a Logan (very good btw) or a Dawn of Justice (blah) if she doesn't see it as a "must see" just like she might sneak off with a couple friends to see some "chick flick" as she puts it but other then that? We hardly go to the movies anymore compare what we use to. It's really a couple big event movies a year and really to take the kiddies now. 90% of stuff now? I can wait for home video.

 

The time in between movies to build anticipation only works if the movies are good. Regardless of whether you take two years between movie or ten it won't matter if the film is not good. Some of us fans are underestimating how good TFA cliffhanger with Luke and Rey is. People want to see what happens next and that is what builds anticipation. If TLJ came out six months after TFA I don't think most people would have complained about that. Same thing with this fabricated super hero movie fatigue, Marvel has been pretty consistent in terms of film quality. So people keep watching the films. DC on the other hand will have some major issues if Wonder Woman and The Justice League are not good. General audiences watch what is hot and has good word of mouth. Star Wars is hot right now, has good word of mouth, and has two new movies that most people thought was good.

 

I don't buy it. I'm starting to agree with Rylo Ken and he wasn't so positive in the rogue1 box office thread. Look star wars is not dead, not by a long shot, but for now, it should have stayed with the December release. I don't like the Han Solo movie going against Avengers: Infinity War part 1 any more than I like Episode 9 to go against part 2 of the movie. In my book, Disney star wars needs super solid numbers from its first five movies. While Rogue 1 did very good at the box office, I believed that it lost some coin due to the release of the movie Sing. If Sing had not been released, I would say that this movie would have crossed the $600 million mark since it would not have had competition. Now, we are going to release these movies in the middle of competition central, and I'm sorry, but star wars is not a one man army that will defeat every movie. I'm telling you that I am not very happy by that decision. Maybe afterwards, after the 5 movies have all done good, so that we can steer clear of Avatar, but now? Nope

 

We want to see what happens next. We are Star Wars nuts. Casual fans want to see Luke finally more then anything else. Again the market is going to stablize a bit IMHO. Stablizing from $933 million domestically is not the end of the world. I know a few on here will say that it's a collpase of Star Wars but I think the vast majority of us live in reality that know the market will find a balance so to speak much like Marvel has. Again this is not a bad thing. If anything, it will show Disney that the market for Star Wars is extremely stable and long term so coming more pictures in a Phase 2 is going to equal huge profits yet again.

vong333

Rogue One exceeded all expectations of anyone who isn't a troll LOL! It was a concept movie made for diehard fans and manage to make a $500/1+ billion split and get darn good reviews both with critics/WOM. And no it didn't lose any money to Sing. Zero. And I am a believer in "momentum" but Rogue One would wound up where it did (which was incredible) regardless of Sing or not. Rogue One was really not a little kids film at all and say that as a proud parent of twin boys who are seven and are Star Wars kids. It wasn't for them. They saw Sing but not Rogue One in the theaters. Pretty much any parent of a young kid can tell you the same thing. Rogue One really is the first adult Star Wars film. And yet it still made what it did. Incredible.

I honestly think we need more "balance" then the Jedi do LOL! The expectation that Episode IX (and Han Solo) are not going to feel a little "course correction" after the insanity that was TFA and Rogue One is shortsighted and silly to me. And yet at the same time, seeing the entire brand collapse because the market stablize into more realistic box office returns is shortsighted and silly to me. I think Disney going forward sees the following splits:

Episodes: $500-750 million
Anthologies: $300-500 million

And in case anyone is wondering, those are the biggest split on the block IE Marvel and DCEU cannot touch those. Star Wars truly is competing against itself at this point. Let's try to have some perspective here.

 

I think some of you have the perception that if Star Wars doesn't get 600/700+ million that means something is wrong. I don't think anybody expects Star Wars movies to get TFA type numbers ever again.

Look. There are still less than ten movies that have ever made over 500 million domestically. Yet some of you are acting like if a Star Wars movie only gets 400 or 500 million that means the franchise is going downhill. Some of the Marvel movies fail to make 200 million domestically and I don't see any Star Wars movie falling that low for a very very very long time. If it ever does.

 

Luke02

We are living the same life, I'm sure of it

 

Rogue One did incredibly well at the box office. My guess would be that Disney wasn't counting on a 1 billion dollar take. And Rogue One CRUSHED it domestically (and because of this was hugely profitable). Rogue One actually did better than ROTS and AOTC at the US box office in adjusted dollars.

 

I am a fan who cares more about the movie being good more so than how much it makes. I think some if us are underestimating the draw of seeing Luke back and Rey's story unfold. If TLJ made half of what TFA did but it is a far superior movie sign me up for that now! Rogue One made less than TFA but many people think that is a better movie. So box office leveling out or dropping a little is lot different than people just not interested because of over saturation.

 

Rogue One had the biggest profit for Disney in 2016, 100M more than CACW.

I am sure this result was above their expectations, and could have been even better if not for the reshoots.

 

Absolutly agree with that.