ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

These microbudgeted movies don't look quite as good when you factor in marketing to get them successful wide releases. Buying a tv spot costs the same whether the movie cost $1.5 million or $150 million to make.

 

For sure. I should have made a better distinction between ROI (return on investment) and just high profit numbers.

When a smaller movie makes a big success, the ROI is amazing.

 

Agreed, Get Out isn't going to spend $100 million on a global tv ad campaign, but it has to spend something, and once it has been successful, the studio ads in post-release tv spots that add revenue but bring down the profit margin. My point is that a $250 million movie may spend $150 million on marketing for a global launch, but a $30 million movie may have to have to spend more than $18 million. It may have to spend $40-50 million in marketing to ramp up to a wide global release like La La Land. Get Out probably spent 5-10 times its budget on marketing, at least.

 

Very curious to know how the SW demographic intersects/compares with the MCU demographic.

 

So VF states that SW9 will start shooting in January. Betcha bottom that they secretly plan to release it in December 2019 after all. When filming wraps, it's not a whole lot of time for post production. Not for a SW movie.

 

They can turn these movies a lot faster now. Don't forget that ROTJ filmed in 1982 and still managed to make their May 1983 release date. And that was pre CGI basically therefore it was nothing basically but stop motion with models and puppets LOL!

That said? I agree. I really do not anticipate Episode IX until December 2019 especially since the third spinoff has not even been anmounced a LK admitted recently that they are still finalizing Phase 2 for Star Wars.

 

Each day I think it is more likely that Disney put IX with A4 just to scare away any competition for A4. As they know the other movies are not interested in December, and since they also reserved December with a new fairy tale I guess.

 

*snaps fingers* That's it!

Studios don't cater to fans' every whim, as we're not the majority of the audience.

However...

They DO depend on us for word-of-mouth.

The PT made big bucks, so why did Lucasfilm go on about "practical effects" so much? Why make a huge effort and big deal over Han, Luke and Leia returning, despite nostalgia not being a thing for the general audience?

Buzz. Word of mouth. Etc. How many big-budget movies with hardcore fans disappoint at the box office because said fans were extremely displeased?

I mean, this is all conjecture. But I doubt all the "fan targeting" is being done for Kathleen Kennedy's health. I have faith in Disney/Lucasfilm to be extremely calculated in its major marketing/movie decisions. (Although I admit I was surprised to learn just how much freedom each director was given with the ST. Do we even know at this point why Lucasfilm decided to go with 3 different directors?)

 

Disney did everything leading up to TFA in order to make sure that the diehard fans were on board knowing that some were not going to be too happy with the story direction (No Big Three together, Luke being MIA, Han meeting his hand etc) so they wanted to make sure the fans were at a fever pitch going in excited about it on all levels. Disney does a tough balance act as they need to placate some to fans and yet need it to be different and unique so the "rehash" is not warranted.

It is interesting watching Lucasfilm Star Wars kind be a combination of the very well orchasted laid out plan of Marvel's rollout and the crazy "let's just throw stuff against the wall" frenzy of DCEU rollout. For all the talk of Iger's "50 years of Star Wars", they clearly do not have a definitive plan of how that will look as KK admitted that they are as we speak discussing what will happen next after Episode IX. I understand the need to be "flexible" as you do not know what audiences will truly glaviate towards but watching Kevin Feige's execute his plan of having ten years worth of movies leading up to the Infinity Wars is truly aweinspiring. Nobody in Hollywood thought he could pull it off, not even Disney when they bought the company and next year that is what we are going to get.

Part of me hopes that once Episode IX (or the last spinoff) comes off for this cycle, Lucasfilm truly takes a moment and lays out where they are going with Star Wars because I do think some stuff is getting lost in the shuffle especially with the new EU as well, a lot of is kinda crummy. Poor storylines, bad writing, weak character development etc. I think if they slowed down a bit they less things would fall through the crack as the universe would truly be strong from top to bottom. I know KK is spearheading this Phase 1 rollout, but I truly think they need someone in charge of Star Wars who is a true visionary like Kevin is at Marvel or John Lasseter is at Pixar Studios. I think it could really push Star Wars into a new category in terms of it's content on all levels, not just the films.

As far as the three directors, it be almost impossible for a director to make more then one of these films unless they film them back to back. It's a simple calendar schedule. For example, TFA came out in December 2015 yet secondary shooting with pre-production had already begun of that year with prinicpal photography starting in February of 2016 and that was a month behind due to a quick story rework and the almost producer guild's strike. There simply is no way a director could jump from finshing one movie (remember JJ said he was making changes to TFA like not even 10 days before it needed to be in the can, he basically was working on it until midnight hour which is like most directors) and then jump right to the next film. Just not possible timewise hence why the need for different directors on each film.

 

i feel like they are trying to make it a thing that star wars anniversary is in may so i think its coming out when its scheduled to be coming out. also yeah i too would like to know the plan after episode 9 what they are doing if they are doing major story or just sticking to anthologies. Also wonder woman is getting really really good reviews! people are saying its the best DC movie out yet which is awesome female director and female lead, women too can be superheroes!

 

I'm curious about this. Is Wonder Woman getting good reviews because it's a genuinely good movie, or is it getting such reviews because it's a vast improvement for the DCEU? I remember when AOTC first came out, it was getting great reviews simply because it was thought to be better than TPM.

 

I really wouldn't take too much from the timing of the shoot. The Han Solo movie is following a similar schedule this year, and will come out in May. TLJ obviously has a similar schedule and comes out in December. So that in itself doesn't tell us anything at all. Though TLJ seems to be pretty far in production already, meaning they probably could have started later on that one.

 

What I understand so far, a bit of both. It's the best DCEU so far but if it were a Marvel flick, it be somewhere in the middle of it's universe. If that holds though, you will see WB executives doing a gig because even a solid but not speculator received film would be like giving ice water to a thirsty person in the desert. It is so needed right now just to get good vibes going again and some momentum (I know I beat that word to death so sorry LOL) leading into Justice League.

And we haven't discussed it yet but Joss Wheldon is taking over Justice League in order to finish it. Not sure much he can do other then editing and stuff. I know it's blasphemy on here but I am not a big Joss fan. I like some of it's work but I think he is also overrated.

 

Hey. Editing can change a movie totally
As far as i understand, he will also supervise some reshoots. I have nothing against Whedon, but i know he has been sniffing heavily around Lucasfilm for doing his own Star Wars movie, i am glad he has not been given it - he is not really a cinematic director and i think he is wrong for Star Wars. Just because you are a big fan and have a "Star Wars heart" does not mean you are the right person to direct it. Its good he is doing a favour to a friend in deep personal crisis. I also guess Warner is paying him of course. As they should do.

 

He is directing Batgirl for them as well so he makes a lot of sense to take over the project since Joss is directing a future DCEU movie:

http://variety.com/2017/film/news/batgirl-movie-joss-whedon-warner-bros-1202018544/

I also agree about Wheldon and Star Wars. Not a good mix.

 

I wonder if RJ was all "no central romance" thing out of fear that a SW series with a female lead may be seen as a turnoff for guys if there's romance too? Just a theory.

 

The OT and PT "romances" were not so well executed, so if they do it in the ST, they could try to improve how this would relate to the story.

I rather prefer if they keep it implied like in the end of Rogue One.

 

The end of R1 was beautifully done.

Or it could be very open-ended, with each segment of fandom (that cares) making of it what they will.

But I still want Rey to be a Skywalker. And if there's no central romance, I feel more hopeful...

 

Rogue One ending was absolutely beautiful. It had the aura of those old Hollywood epics. And like "we found love in a hopeless place", but it did not feel forced in the end.

Reylo is not happening, and that`s good news for the box office total of TLJ i believe. I think a deeper romantic angle needs more time and space ( ahaha) to develop than Star Wars makes room for. I was totally seduced by Han + Leia when i was a kid though, but it took 3 movies to get there for them as well. The ending of Empire of course made a breakthrough.

 

JoJoPenelli

Considering how disappointed fans are on social media right now, no, that's not his intention. What he meant is, when you look at the plots in TLJ, that romance (if there's any) isn't central. He didn't say there's no romance. Just that it isn't central. Which makes sense. Out of 3-4 parallel plots, only 1 (Finn and Rose) could have any romantic drive. So that wouldn't be central. I don't know why everyone is either gloating or panicking. It's not a debunk.

 

Ricardo Funes

I think Han + Leia = One of the best love stories ever told. I also think Anakin + Padme = One of the worst love stories ever told.

Othini

What made Han & Leia work is how understated it was as Irvin did a just masterful job pulling it off. It was implied and didn't have a lot of (as he said) a lot smoochy and stuff but still you can the tension with a knife. He also took time in the beginning and lay the groundwork in the early scenes that a lot had happen between the start of TESB and the end of ANH ...and in between them. And of course, a lot of that as to do with the chemistry between Harrison and Carrie because in pretty any situation where you have a great on screen romance, there is tremendous chemistry between the two actors. And you never know how that will work out until shooting begins. You can set things up to play one way but then they turn another. Originally in "The Warriors", Marcy was going to have a romance with Scout while Swan went off on his own adventure (or if anyone knows the original story, a misadventure!) but the chemistry onset was between the actors who played Swan and Marcy (Beck & Van Valenburgh) therefore Walter Hill changed the story during production. You could have the greatest love story ever told but if there isn't chemistry within the actors, it will come off terribly.

I know I am in the minority but I am kind of bummed that their will be no central romantic story to TLJ including Reylo. I thought that could be really interesting. Maybe not so much they fall in love but more they gain "sentiment" for each other during their training (Kylo learns how truly alone she has been this whole time while Rey learns just how tortured Ben was from a young age and really didn't stand a chance). I honestly think it will be a great waste if Rian and/or Colin doesn't take advantage of the connection between Rey + Kylo especially after the interrogation scene. I know it's a bit too much HP but it would be interesting to seen their minds being connection due to that scene. I am holding out that Finn gets a bit of love from Rose, even if it's understated like in Rogue One or TESB LOL!

JoJoPenelli

There is zero chance IMHO that she is a Skywalker or a Solo. It's either Rey Nobody or PERHAPS (my hope) she is Rey Kenobi. That's it.

Box Office Mojo is perdicting Pirates 5 will lead the weekend with a $81 million 4-day weekend:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4295&p=.htm

That must have Disney nervous since Pirates 4 did $90 million in three days. You wonder if Depp is just damaged goods beyond recognition at this point. This is his signature role and they brought the legendary characters from 1-3 and yet it cannot do even $90 million over a holiday weekend? Not good and could be another sign that the box office is truly down like we been expecting. This is also be the last major blow for GOTG 2. You figure over $25 million starting today and going through Monday so it should be over $335 million come end of business day Monday. Again, $350 million domestically? Lock but $400 million? Don't know it honestly really has to do how it holds after this holiday and really how Wonder Woman does. If WW really surprises and sucks all of the oxygen out of the room, then it will be a huge long shot (really impossible) for it to hit $400 million in North American. But if WW keeps it's current tracking and there is room for GOTG 2 still to breath a bit? Then yes I think it has a decent enough chance. Will know more after this weekend. Oh and Beauty should finally clip $500 million in North Ameica. It should be it's final gasp, it really fallen off the pace lately. I know kiddie movies hang better but I don't see it hitting any other milestones from here on it domestically.

 

Well Beauty and the beast has also been out since before Easter, so that I'm sure is a direct contributing factor to it's slower pace.

Glad to hear about Wonder Woman! I actually like the DCEU so far. I know people have their issues with it, but I really am a fan of this interpretation of these superheroes-especially Batman.

Joss Whedon being brought in to finish Justice League is not due to their lack of confidence in how good it is, nor is it meant to redo it. It's cos Zack Snyder's daughter unfortunately committed suicide, and despite trying to work thru it Zack and his wife need some well-deserved time. In fact WB went out of their way to say that Joss will work to maintain Snyder's vision.

I think Pirates is doing as well as can be accepted considering it's the 5th film, and I feel the ship has passed (pun intended) for the whole pirate craze.

I am thinking that TLJ will probz gross a bit less than TFA. Just a bit. History proves this with other film series as well as SW, and I'm sure certain general moviegoers that didn't really like it won't be in a rush to buy tickets.

 

I wouldn't say that BatB is suddenly burning and crashing. Of course now it's going to drop off, but after how many weeks? 10 weeks? It had a pretty amazing run and will hit $500 million this weekend if not tomorrow. And just in time for the release on home video.

Pirates looks to be in trouble. May not hit $200 million domestically. I HOPE that Transformers 5 crashes and burns.

What's the good news about Wonder Woman? They've gone full course press in the past 3 weeks for this movie.

 

Yeah, TLJ won't match or exceed TFA.

TFA was a perfect storm.

I'm sure LucasFilm and Disney knows that.