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ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Discussion in 'Sequel Trilogy' started by James T Kirk, Jan 3, 2016.

?

How will Episode VIII's box office draw compare to TFA?

  1. It will surpass TFA

    13.8%
  2. It will be comparable

    38.3%
  3. Drop/Significant drop

    47.9%
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  1. Lee_

    Lee_ Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Nov 3, 2012
    Yep, and that is a giant gap.
     
  2. fastcooljosh

    fastcooljosh Jedi Master star 2

    Registered:
    Mar 15, 2017
    Am I the only one who thinks Valerian will flop really really hard ?

    There is no hype and the movie had a budget of almost €200 million ($ 220 million )
     
  3. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    I don't see any way it WON'T flop hard. We're just not in the climate for any new "thing" to come along that will make it big, unfortunately.
     
  4. GregMcP

    GregMcP Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 7, 2015
    How did The Fifth Element go? It's now a bit of cult favourite, but I don't think it was a hit at the box office.
    I will still go see Valerian, whatever the rest of the planet does. I generally don't see eye to eye with the rest of the planet anyway.
     
  5. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Lee_

    The budget for MoS and particularly Dawn of Justice were overbloated and it showed in the work. $150 million for a WW origin movie is perfectly fine and once again does not explain that a bit of the CGI look like half-baked Matrix stuff. The movie was good but it had it's warts and budget cannot explain them.

    GregMcP

    In North America, it didn't do anything special. Was #26 for the year just behind "In & Out" as it only grossed $62 million (with a budget of $90 million). But just like the movie itself, it's box office was ahead of it's time and did huge business internationally. Made over $200 million internationally that allowed it to be #9 at the box office worldwide in 1997. So it was a box office success though it really relied on the international market to do it. Over 75% of it's ticket sales were from the international market.

    As for Valerian, I just cannot work myself to see it even though I enjoy Luc's movies a lot and obviously "The Fifth Element" is one of my all-time favorites. I don't know what it is but it just does not look interesting even if it's based on a famous French sci-fi comic series.

    Good start for DM 3 as it's at 85% on RT which is around where the other ones have been though it's still early. And Baby Driver has added some more reviewers but not rotten a one still. I honestly am more interested in seeing that then Valerian and a host of other big name moves coming out. After DM3, Spidey and Dunkirk I really do not have any other movies I am really interested in seeing that much other then perhaps Baby Driver. I know Apes 3 and Dark Tower comes out this summer but they scream rental. And frankly DM3 and Spidey are really for my kids though I most likely would see DM3 without them and potentially Spidey if the buzz is good.

    jedijax

    So in other words dummy down the story enough for today's world where the Kardashian's can create a financial empire complete with a TV show on air for over ten years can understand. :p
     
  6. Othini

    Othini Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    I would be happy if Valerian deliver. Its in a genre not far off from Star Wars - prey its more 5th Element and not much Jupiter Ascending.
    The cast is crazy: Rihanna, John Goodman. Rutger Hauer :), Herbie Hancock ( !), Ethan Hawke and Clive Owen. Then adding DeHaan and supermodel Delevingne.

    Heard from people that were in Cannes this year that the Korean film "Okja", a family film, is fantastic. It should have a limited release in the US, its a Netflix production. Baby Driver looks cool.

    Btw. Why Disney is not bying Netflix is still beyond my belief. To expensive, too late? It would be a massive, but great deal for The Mouse.
     
  7. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Othini

    Couple reasons why Disney has not bought Netflix:

    1. They want to figure out ESPN before they add on such a expensive properly. Whether they sell ESPN (which they are currently shopping) or just continue to cut costs until it becomes more stable, they need to fix that wound because it's causing them to bleed like a stuck pig.
    2. Reed could be a bit apprehensive about a buyout because the next logical question would be "When does he take over for Bob Iger?". It is no secret that the only reason why Bob still is at the helm (he desperately wants to retire) is because Disney has not found a worthwhile successor. Alan Horn was offered the role on a temporary basis until they found a long term fit but Alan is happy just where he is and frankly, is looking to retired soon. All other in-house candidates have not shown interest or simply be a temporary fix including Kathleen Kennedy who is also getting up there in age. But Reed is young enough that he be a long term replacement that could be at the helm of the company for a decade plus. Therefore it be a endless stream of questions that be about when does Reed become president of Disney.
    3. They are still tinkering with building their own streaming service but I think they are starting to realize that Netflix is so good darn at it, why not just buy them out and let that become their streaming site.
    4. They are facing stiff competition for Netflix most notably Apple which has obviously a lot more capital then Disney and wants to get into the streaming service business as well hence why they are starting to produce their own content. Apple is leaning more towards buying Telsa according to the most recent reports as they want to corner the market on self driving cars and beat Google to the punch.
    5. Warning this is not a political statement endorsement or viewpoint, simply stating a fact LOL: A lot of these major companies are wanting to see what happens in Congress with the Trump corporate tax cut. Once that gets settled whether its basically none or big, you will see a flurry of action. Simply put if the corporate tax cut is big enough you can see absolutely crazy stuff happens. You could see something anything from Apple buys Netflix and Telsa to Apple simply buys Disney and becomes the first trillian dollar company. And even if no corporate tax cut happens, you will see truly mindblogging things happen. Just again a lot of these companies are waiting to see what hand they will be working before they start making a move. Google buying Whole Foods was sort of surprising given the fiscal policy uncertainly out of Washington currently but then you realize Amazon has money to burn and was worried someone else make a move in buying Whole Foods and turning it into a robot grocery store...Oppppsss sorry wasn't supposed to mention that LOL JK!
     
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  8. Master of None

    Master of None Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jun 14, 2016
  9. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Master of None

    You be correct sorry I was reading something about Google at the same time as typing that post and my mind drifted LOL! Thanks.
     
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  10. Master of None

    Master of None Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jun 14, 2016
    I deleted because I don't want to be argumentative :)
     
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  11. Othini

    Othini Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Appreciate a long good investigation from you again! For Disney starting up their own streaming site would be pretty useless now. Its too late. Just do like Zuckerberg, if anyone new hot shot start threaten you, or taking away your young customers: Buy them up! We will see. Star Wars is either way going to play a a big part in Disney`s content, on any platform.

    Transformers; Last Knight opens to $ 265 mill internationally. Wonder Woman with another great hold domestic.
     
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  12. Lee_

    Lee_ Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Nov 3, 2012
    Right, you've been quite clear on your opinion on this matter; I wasn't trying to sway it with my post, I was just commenting :)
     
  13. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Othini

    Agree and hence where is not so suttle cat and mouse game (no pun intended) between Disney and Apple with regards to Netflix. Both companies are desperate to get in the streaming service game and like you said, they are late to the party. It seems like Netflix, Amazon Prime and Hulu will be the three main players with very little or no room for anyone else even if Disney decides to get in a service with their content build in. So each looks at Netflix as the perfect solution with each having strengths in their pitches. Apple has more captial and would be a easier transitition along with having the ability to incorporate hardware into the streaming services potentially. Disney though as well....the Disney movie library which is the best library in history. Any streaming service dream would be to have the Disney movie catalog on their site and that it is what Netflix could get by being bought out by Disney. Keep in mind too they already are doing business together so there is already a personal relationship in place. Therefore I give Disney the nod in the potential Netflix sweepstakes...but then again Disney could buy Netflix only to see itself be bought out by Apple LOL!

    Transformers is going to awful business here and could easily make more then $850 million worldwide which to put that into perspective is what Dawn of Justice did. Even if Transformers only does $100 million here, it could still do $750 million internationally to get a $850 million haul. The international haul didn't save The Mummy (only $275 million which isn't bad but still not what they needed) but it saved Pirates 5 ($517 million) and is certain to save Transformers 5 as well. It really is kinda of a tough tug of wall for the studios right now as they need to find films that sell well to both a domestic and international audience. Both GOTG 2 and WW are doing fabulous business here but are doing just alright internationally. Compare that with Furious 8, Pirates 5 and now Transformers 5 which did okay to poor here domestically but have done good to insane overseas.

    DM3 is tracking for a $98 million opening weekend (which would be lower then Minions but higher then any DM movie) and a $290 million domestic gross. I don't know I think that might be a little light at least with the total domestic gross. The series has not lost any steam as kids as still absolutely go crazy over it and early reviews/buzz says it's right in the line as the last two. I really have a tough time seeing it anything worse then $300 million domestically. Maybe it doesn't hit the mark of DM 2 but to see that series go under $300 million domestically right now would be a true shocker.

    I am happy to see WW doing well as again THANK GOD WB got one of their DCEU movies right. Because MoS was IMHO pretty good but nothing great and since then, it's well yeah until WW. I think it really got helped too by a great window in the calendar (just as the kiddies were coming out) and having both Pirates 5 and Transformers 5 just thud. Cars 3 was never going to interfer with it's business just like DM 3 won't either though DM 3 is the one that will take away some of WW's momentum yet really, WW should have a clean run until Spidey comes out. BTW and it's very very EARLY which means in the immortal words of Mike Zeroh this should be taken with a "pinch of salt" but the early social media reviews coming out for Homecoming is really good. Now granted we heard this before on other films (most famously with Dawn of Justice) but keep in mind, the buzz around the film is very good so this matches it opposed to Dawn of Justice where insiders were saying it was a mess months in advance.

    So hopefully DM 3 and Spidey Homecoming can catch on because the box office could use a kick start despite the WW craze because overall it's really hurting and frankly that will carry over into the fall and winter which can effect TLJ. I will argue to the day I die that TFA was helped by that incredible summer slate that year lead by Jurassic World. It helped get people back into the habbit of going to the theaters and like we discussed both momentum and competition are good at the box office. I think Disney was rather happy to see how well the 2015 summer box office went (after 2014 was such a dud) and felt better about TFA that December even with THG 4 being a giant whiff.
     
  14. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    Glad the Transformer ship is finally sinking. Yeah, it's doing well overseas so I say let Bay keep making his movies for those people and let it get buried here.

    Andy by next weekend, WW should have passed both BvS and Suicide Squad.
     
  15. Artoo-Dion

    Artoo-Dion Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jun 9, 2009
    Bay is leaving the franchise.
     
  16. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Bay has said that before only to come back. The Bumblebee spinoff though looks like he won't at the helm of.
     
  17. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Transformers will make money WW. Remember, China loves those types of movies.
     
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  18. The Legions of Lettow

    The Legions of Lettow Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 14, 2015
    FWIW, the original Casino Royals officially had 5 directors, including John Huston.
     
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  19. jedijax

    jedijax Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    May 2, 2013
    So.....(hides in this thread to get away from the war going on in the Colin thread)....anyone see any good movies lately? :D
     
  20. Master of None

    Master of None Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Jun 14, 2016
    OH Lordy, you too?!? :)
    I cut myself off yesterday, after getting scolded. I planned on cutting myself off spoilers anyways.
    I like this thread because I always wait until I can watch at home (SW exception). You guys give such great reviews and reports here.

    I'm going to be hanging out over at SW community, they're much much more positive...all are welcome :)
     
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  21. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Master of None

    So in other words you realize now why 90+% of my posts are either in this thread or the social thread. :D

    I tried a few times to get everyone to calm down enough in that thread in order "to agree on disagreeing" and move on since it wasn't doing any good. I kinda felt like Mel Gibson's character in "The Patriot" when he walk into the bar:



    I should known better though. Stick to the box office + social thread and life is good. The rumor thread can be fun at times but again I try to be very picky when I post in there.

    The communities are fun too but please don't leave our little family here and on the social thread all together. Your apart of us! :p

    jedijax

    No new movies though I will be seeing Transformers 5 (go ahead and mock) and DM 3 over the next week. I did watch TFA again Saturday since the kiddies want it to watch it. The more I watch that, the more I feel like that was kinda like that is Dawn of Justice except really really well made. I said it before that Dawn of Justice to me was a pizzaburger. Two great things on their own but when you shove them together it just does not work. In the case of BvS, I feel like they had a good Superman story and a very good Batman story written but shoving it together made a huge mess. TFA is kinda like that for me in this regard - I think they had a really good original story in mind with Ardnt and a pretty reboot with Kasdan/JJ. They push the two together and it kinda came out messy but MUCH MUCH MUCH better then Dawn of Justice obviously. I don't know I guess no matter how many times I watch TFA it will always be a good fun popcorn movie to me with some huge warts that will never go away. Anyway no new movies but I did watch the pilot to GLOW. I remember watching it as a kid and have a thing for Alison Brie so I figure I give it a whirl. So far, so good. Was quite entertaining and different. Hopefully it can help my wife and I (she remembers it too she is watching) getting over the fact there is no Stranger Things this summer. Not that I am upset they move it to the fall since it fits PERFECTLY with Halloween but as she said, it gave us something to watch in the summer LOL! Obviously GoT is coming but that is just a me show therefore we are watching GLOW and are looking forward to The Defenders later this summer. Speaking of Marvel TV, The InHumans finally got a poster and preimere date:

    https://www.gamespot.com/articles/marvels-the-inhumans-poster-released-premiere-date/1100-6451180/

    Think I am one of the few human beings (pun intended) excited for that show LOL! Not only for the show itself but also making it will finally make SHIELD move away from their InHumans subplots that were dominating the show too often. I honestly be curious to see the pilot in IMAX late this summer. That sounds fun especially since Game of Thrones will not be showing an episode in IMAX this summer again! :mad:

    Ricardo Funes

    No doubt but domestic still is the golden ticket for studios since the US market still drives the box office and still where the studios make most of their money since that is where they get their biggest cut. Plus it's a ego thing to with them. They will stick their chest out a bit more if they win the box office race here more then they would worldwide. I certainly do not think Transformers is dead as franchise but it needs a major reboot to get some excitement here. It doesn't need to be in the $400 Million or even $300 Million Club to do fabulous business thanks to what it does worldwide but this might not even make $150 million here. That cannot happen. $250 million domestically? Sure especically since it will make easily $700 million plus internationally for a fabulous haul but not $150 million. That isn't even the budget. Just unacceptable and hence why I am sure Paramount is happy that Michael Bay is moving on from the directors chair. They need a facelift desperately.

    So DM 3 RT score is at 78% which is on par with the others. It seems like some reviewers just don't like that franchise. Again maybe it's because the series is not one of those kid movies that is also for adults but rather just a kiddies flick that some adults might find funny (I think it's hilarious). Reminds of adults who think Halloween is an adult holiday. *smh*. Oh and Baby Driver is up to 49 reviews and not a rotten one yet. I really hope it's good and catches on. We need more off the beaten original movies. And no reviews yet for Spidey Homecoming but that is expected since Marvel embargos usually don't end to a few days before the premiere. Spidey comes out July 7th so it reviews should be coming out a week from now or so.
     
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  22. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
  23. Master of None

    Master of None Jedi Master star 4

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    Jun 14, 2016
    Luke02 I'll check on you guys daily

    Thanks for da luv :)
     
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  24. Othini

    Othini Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Everybody`s welcome in this thread. We had some really intense fights in the old Force Awakens b.o thread, but that is history :) Also, with Episode VII grossing $ 936 mill in US alone - it sort of made everybody in the thread speechless and shut up, in the end :)

    Now we know all know better i think. Right? haha. Taking part in the other speculation threads would take too much of my time, and i am still not sure about how much spoiled i want to be before TLJ. Before TFA, i knew everything, expect for the opening shot, with rumours still circling about "Lukes floating lightsaber hand in space". It wasn`t. But this time i think i want to explore TLJ a little different and not knowing everything .
     
  25. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    I do not know how my view on TFA would have been if the Han vs Kylo scene was spoiled to me. I am glad that I did not know that.

    My level of spoilers is just the trailers/teasers and some smaller stuff like the Vanity Fair article.

    This is why I have unsubbed to several SW channels on Youtube (some of them post spoilers in the video title), and as soon as the Collider videos show the spoiler warning, I am off.

    TLJ will make good money, and I hope there is a major twist that helps to capture public imagination like ESB did.
     
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