ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

It really is a great film. And I absolutely agree the smaller scale helps the film immensely. Excellent casting and really captures what it feels to be young.


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Deadline mentioned 48-49m for Spiderman on Friday, Rth chimes in - in his usual indirect manner - with a picture that hints at 50m.

If it follows similar movies over the weekend, it should end up somewhere around 130-140m.

 

"A" Cinemascore as well. It's all upside.

 

Spider Man looking at 100 million opening.

And Wonder Woman still selling tickets at about 10 million this weekend; looking at scraping in the direction of 800,000 worldwide.

 

No way a $100 million OW if it has already made $50 million OD.

 

So Friday estimates are indeed a bit above 50m, impressive. Looks like it won't behave anything like for example GOTG 2 though, as rth has the Saturday at 'only' 37m, I had expected a bit more due to its reception. Sounds more like 115-120m for the weekend at this point.

 

$117 million OW estimate. That means $67 million Saturday-Sunday (average of $33.5 million each day). That's pretty steep fall, isn't it?

 

Yes, it definately is a whole lot lower than for example GOTG 2, which made 56/51/39, though it might have been caused by a combination of lower summer weekend jumps and following the 4th of July holiday. The estimates have Spiderman now drop 27% on Saturday and 22% on Sunday, and there is one movie from quite some time ago that kind of matches that behaviour: POTC 2 opened under the exact same circumstances in 2006, and it dropped 20.4% on Saturday and another 20.4% on Sunday. That is obviously from a time where the openings behaved quite differently compared to now, but the similarities do exist.

Unlike other large openings with a rather week OD to OW ratio, it doesn't necessarily hint at bad legs though, as POTC 2 dropped 54% in its second weekend before never dropping over 50% again for its entire run, finishing with 423m after a 135m start. It might as well just be a unique situation caused by the schedule.

 

Per Wonder Woman, I do think this movie and the others(BvS, SS) should really have gotten the DC heads fired. If anything, it completely validates the Marvel release strategy in full and doing things just to be different has severe box office consequences. Imagine if we had gotten WW before BvS, and people weren't confusing her with Catwoman for the first half of the film? Now we're going to get Justice League, with a bunch of nobodies in cosplay comprising half the cast. Oh... we'll see them in their film later(presumably), but by then the big teamup will have already been spent.

Seriously.. they should just clean house over there at Warner Brothers. At this point, if you actually buy the movies, it would be best to watch them out of order from when they were made. Absolutely atrocious structuring and incompetence.

 

Ah the good ol' 3 Days of the Condor method.

 

The key is to simply never let Zack Snyder behind the camera. Ever.

 

It will be interesting to see if they can turn this thing around without restarting. How many movies are they still in for? Justice League and Aquaman? Wonder woman could continue on her own. It seems like breaks are on the Flash and Batman for the moment.

 

Sounds right.

Flash and Cyborg are just bland bad casting. Jason Mamoa looks able to carry Aquaman though with that presentation from the trailers.

And personally.. I like the conceit they went with that these characters basically represent a new version of gods on Earth. But its structured so horribly, its really not going to matter. And that font for Justice League does them no favors. Had they taken the time to plan it, build the characters up, they would have done far better when it came time for the big showdowns. As it stands, they likely left a ton of money on the table with their ineptitude.

 

True and the perfect realization of Flash including great casting already exists, it is the CW tv series.

 

Yeah, there's almost nothing I find worse in genre filmmaking than the superhero "team up" formula, and DC trying to jump on that train (and far too early) is definitely a mistake.

 

Looks like Wonder Woman, Spider-Man, Guardians 2, Transformers sequel, and Despicable Me 3 are all going to end up in roughly the same sub $1 billion global box office ballpark.

That leaves Last Jedi, Beauty and the Beast and Furious 8 as the overwhelmingly likely worldwide box office champions of 2017. Last Jedi will likely not take the foreign box office crown from Furious.

I still think Dunkirk is the summer's black swan event. Unpredictable box office, extremely heavy marketing. My 80 year old father wants to see it. It will bring out a huge age range excluding kids, though it will be gender skewed.

 

With an Oscar-worthy movie like Furious, you could see why they like it so much.

I think TLJ will likely have the highest worldwide total.

 

TLJ will have the highest global total, with imho 99% certainty, but I doubt it will get $1 billion in foreign box office alone. It will have far and away the highest U.S. domestic total of 2017.

 

Fast and Furious is huge outside the United States. Wonder if that cut into some of Transformers global box office. And how is the Rock not in a Transformer Movie?

Star Wars right now is the domestic juggernaut. It seems a sure thing for the 2017 highest grossing domestic film to be The Last Jedi. And if The Last Jedi is good - Episode 9 will probably win the same prize. The national attention span seems like it can last five years and three movies.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens internationally with Star Wars going forward. The Force Awakens has been out for two years. Is that movie finding an audience on home video in countries that didn't get Star Wars before?

 

$117 million OW = $300+ million domestically a very strong possibility. As a matter of fact, it be shocking if it didn't. Most films that open to $115+ million always get over the $300 million mark. Only ones I can think of that didn't were Man of Steel, HP 7 and the last two Twlight films - and of those films I believe were $290+ million so the odds are very strong Spidey could do it. There is nothing earth shattering coming out over the next few months that will take all the oxygen out of the room. Yes both Apes 3 and Durkirk should do very well but there is no movie "event" coming out like a much anticipated comic book flick or obviously a SW movie. The next comic book movie isn't to Thor 3 and that is in November. So Spidey should have enough juice to get to $300 million domestically.

That means (assuming it happens) we will have four movies to reach the $300+ million mark this year: B&tB, GOTG 2, WW and Spidey. Obviously TLJ is a lock but after that? I don't know. Right now I don't think Justice League is a lock. One would think it have a lot of momentum going into it considering how WW as been a runaway hit but I think most casual fans felt like Dawn of Justice wasn't any good and this looks more of the same. Plus by the time it comes out, we would had five comic book movies this year in Logan, GOTG 2, WW, Spidey and Thor 3. And obviously 4 of those have gotten fabulous reviews (in many ways, this has been the best year for comic book movies so far - 4 comic book movies = 4 extremely well received movies) and if the talk of Thor 3 be really good too, people are going to look at SS and be like forget there is too many other good comic book movies. Of course this is assuming JL is bad. One never know perhaps Josh can work his magic and splice it together so it works but right now, I say Justice League is going to be a mess....regrettably. And even if JL manages to get over $300 million, that means only six movies will hit that mark in North America even though we had monster tentpole franchises stick a flag in the ground. I think the situation at the box office is getting worse, not better. Last year we had nine.

jedijax


Yeah I meet so far this year, my bad. If I had to guess how it will look when the year ends; this will be how the opening weekend race ends like:

1. TLJ
2. Beauty & the Beast
3. GOTG 2
4. Justice League
5. Spidey Homecoming
6. Wonder Woman
7. Furious 8
8. Logan
9. Apes 3
10. Thor 3

Or something like that LOL!

nightangel

That is why if I am WB, I am calling Lord & Miller to see if they want to make a Flash solo movie. They be a perfect fit for that.

 

Agreed. Like Wonder Woman going 50-50... Star Wars tends to lose a little something overseas. I think the root of it is that the whole Good vs Evil thing doesn't play well universally, particularly in those countries wondering if they're meant to be the 'evil' and have a distinctly gray view of the world and the US. It will be interesting to see if it builds, though. Its got a great starting point.

Its why something like Avatar did gonzo overseas... because it was primarily a story of The Little Guy overcoming all the odds against the insurmountable Colonial Powers seeking to enforce their rule and pillage the land. Something that has played well ever since the Zulu movies. Most countries can relate to that and the viewers can put themselves in the place of the Na'vi, and in turn provide nice wish-fulfillment entertainment.

 

That ignores that it is China that makes the difference, not "the world" as a whole. TFA easily outclassed Furious 7 when it comes to 'internationally - China', and it is very like TLJ will do the same thing again this year. Though just like domestically, it would be extremely surprising of TLJ somehow improved on TFA. There isn't really any room for growth for Star Wars, unless it somehow turns into something entirely different, or the Dollar goes crashing, neither of which is in any way likely.

Star Wars has the bad luck that the second biggest market in the world doesn't really care about it, which gets countered by the biggest market going completely nuts over it. This is what causes the weird the split, as the domestic market is a huge outlier. You aren't going to have a common domestic/international split if the domestic market is far bigger than is the norm. The opposite is the case for something like the FF franchise. It's only doing very well in the domestic market, while being gigantic in China. This automatically pushes the split way towards the international side, even if all other markets are only running as well as the domestic market does. Now, there are a handful of other markets the franchise excells in, but they don't do much for the split.