ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

There isn't much doubt that Avatar made 3D and proved the market. As per the sales, part of the marketing for that movie is that it was made FOR 3D, using 3D cameras and specific angles and construction of scenes that best enhanced and made use of the depth, and that you weren't really getting the full immersive experience in 2D(which was quite true). For something like TFA, the 3D is incidental and simply pasted on in post-production. It was a movie built for 2D screens, was noted as such, so that's where it performed best. But just because you can get people to buy-in to watching it in 3D, rather than 2D... that does not mean they will rewatch it in 3D in the numbers you need for record receipts.

And if technical prowess was all it took to make a movie generate dollars, we'd have had movies that surpassed it at the worldwide box office by now. Nobody has even come close. Not even Star Wars. It had to settle for the domestic crown. In fact, in the intervening years, nobody has really come close to matching the visual language Cameron invented for making full use of the 3D. To the point that pretty much most movies are largely post-converted now(and the 3D has pretty much been pushed back burner as a result, in favor of more pixels and higher frame rates). 2D has a lot of legacy inertia built in. Its why it'll be interesting to see just what level of destruction Avatar 2 has on the industry given 10 years of advancements. In a lot of ways, Avatar and 3D are the disruptive wrecking ball to a traditional way of making and watching movies, while embracing a fairly traditional, measured method of storytelling.

Heck, in a lot of ways, Avatar was as big a jump of technology and style as to when Walt Disney made Snow White & the Seven Dwarves. That style of Disney animated film wasn't really matched in this country for well over half a century. The same question could be asked there. Did the animation 'make' those movies on its own, or was it the visual storytelling?

 

I may be repeating what you've said here so bare with me. I think that TLJ will definitkey do well but will it make as much as the force awakens considering it was the relaunch of the sw franchise? I'm all for it though but not sure it will surpass it. Will definitely do well though.

 

Well except I didn't say anything about technical prowess being all it takes- what I said was that the Avatar brought a novelty that was new that caught on fire, which was 3D, and it wouldn't be the monster it was without that. I was clear that it wasn't the ONLY reason it was popular, just that the level they reached required the novelty of 3D.

The example with animation couldn't be anymore irrelevant to what I was saying. I was talking about a specific instance; you wouldn't be able to generalize that to EVERY advance in technology because (obviously) some are a whole lot more popular than others.

 

Yes and without the re- releases. I thought these numbers would be more accurate.

True but that ( the 40 % drop ) is exactly what happened in each trilogy before. I personally dont see TLJ finishing its run under $600 Million as well.

 

Spidey Homecoming already the 12th highest grossing movie of the year in North American and it has just finished Day 5. No doubt it will be well over $200 million by the end of next weekend and will be making a rapid accent to $300 million domestically after that. Won't make it to $400 million but Marvel and Sony could not be happier with it's performance on every level. BTW I saw it yesterday. I thought it was the best comic book movie of the year as it was better then Logan, WW and GOTG 2 to go along with being one of the five best MCU movies so far. I know many are waiting to see it so I won't say much other then it's well worth seeing at the theater.

Oh and good news fans of Luc Besson which includes me: Early reviews for Valerian have been pretty positive! Still thinks it's going to be a total dud regrettably but it's nice to see so far it is not getting shredded by critics. Maybe there is hope!

 

The Valerian reviews have been interesting. The movie obviously doesn't work for some, while others love it.
And I've seen a few "This works. That doesn't."
So it's worthy of a look.
That's all I need. It's not just a vomit of CGI.

Lucy was on the teevee a few days ago.
Damn stupid idea for a movie, but it's still quite fun.

Spiderman... You know, I don't need to see it. I'm sure it's great, but in my gut, nah. I just don't want to. Maybe it will be on Netflix in a year and it will help me get through the ironing one Saturday afternoon.

Avatar... when I saw the trailers it looked like a PS3 video game. I thought it was pretty, but no big deal. But throw in the 3D and the immersiveness of the whole thing, and it very successfully wowed me. I loved it. I know there's a backlash to it having an environmental message, and a message about treating other cultures with respect, well, I'm fine with those messages.

 

War for the Planet of the Apes has a ton of momentum and great reviews and is poised to build on the box office of the very well received first two installments of the NPT (new primate trilogy), but it seems ineptly sandwiched between Spider-Man: Homecoming and Dunkirk. It's great for people who like three straight weekends of high quality big budget cinema, but it seems likely that Apes is the one that gets crushed, relatively speaking, and maybe all three movies get hurt.

 

Early buzz on Dunkirk it's speculator but I can quite a few critics tearing it apart for the mere premise of having a movie in 2017 when there is little to no character development. I cannot wait to go see it. Seems like July is just going to be an amazing month for films with Spidey, Apes 3 and Dunkirk.

 

Going to watch Dunkirk this coming Wednesday with my dad. Then Valerian.

Looks like War for the Planet of the Apes is heading for a $ 55 mill plus domestic opening. I saw it yesterday and i can see it being too dark and dystopian for many. Its not a kids movie, thats for sure. It has something as seldom ( this days in Hollywood) as a long, slow build up, all the action scenes takes place in the 3rd act, and although you get who is playing protagonist / antagonist, with Woody Harrelson being an extremely cynical, but still interesting "villain" - the movie does not always show a clear picture of who is good, who is bad, in this world. Which is refreshing. The ending is hugely emotional and the execution of it, surprisingly non sentimental, but strong, very strong, it certainly touched me in a way i was not prepared for.

Also seems like the great reviewed July movies, unfortunately will eat up each others box office. Its too tight, to many movies, crammed into the spot, very difficult to make a huge impression, even if you can waive with a 90% RT score and great buzz.

Waiting for some good Lucasfilm info tonight at D23. Here`s what i hope for:

* TLJ trailer 2 ( very unlikely ), realistic we get extended behind the scenes reel with some clear picture of themes and storytelling direction ( i hope)
* The main cast of TLJ, including Laura Dern on stage.
* Rian Johnson showing us a bit more on Leia`s role in the film and doing a tribute to Carrie at the same time.
* 3rd anthology movie announced: Main actor and director.
* Han Solo movie - short teaser + interview with Ron Howard about the direction he is taking this movie.
* Indiana Jones 5 update: Harrison Ford on stage with some confirmation from Alan Horn / Kathy Kennedy on the script development + Steven Spielberg saying a few words to add to the optimism.

 

I never thought those apes movies looked very good, but I watched the first 2 this weekend, not bad. Think I will go see apes 3 at the theater.

 

I think you should see it.

Yesterday`s D23 did show us that TLJ and Infinity War + Lion King remake are all going to be huge at the box office. The rest of the Disney slate, not so convinced. Aladdin already feels like it could ( unfortunately ) turn into a bland concept. I actually doubt younger audience care about Mary Poppins. And Dumbo + Tim Burton sounds to me like a bad match, especially if he is not being given freedom to make it...a bit more freakish.

Loved everything about TLJ. Although was hoping for more from Lucasfilm.

 

Glad they immediately released the BTS for TLJ. But I want to see what they showed for Infinity Wars and Lion King. How did they already have something for LK? (and what about Mulan-is that still happening?) Will they release this stuff?

 

Agree, they can´t keep that footage secret for long. Its always a competition between Marvel and DC at Comic Con right? Guess Infinity War will totally rule the galaxy, with Justice League trying to build some momentum. Maybe DC even reshot the whole 3rd act with Wonder Woman now totally kicking it

 

Yeah Disney wanted the focus on SW at D23 since it is not even going to comic-con (which IMHO really honks me off since Comic-Con helped launch Star Wars back in 1977, even they just do some token stuff out of tradition it be fine) therefore Infinity War will get it's day in the sun (including footage online) then. And while Star Wars was the focus of D23 with the a very good BTS trailer, Infinity War as the picture of the convention:



And the scary part? There are major cast members missing including Chris Pratt. Imagine what that is going to look like when they have their premiere and EVERYONE is there. That is going to be sick.

I am shocked that Apes 3 is not going to clip $60 million domestically this weekend. It is getting incredible reviews and the WOM has been very strong too. Just seems like Americans currently do not have any interest in going to the movies anymore. For all the talk about WW as this "phenomenon", it totally isn't. It's doing just fabulous business but in the end won't even make $450 million. It seems like the studios have hit a major wall for whatever reason with people going to the theaters and are clueless to truly fix it. Last year at this time we already had 7 movies that reached $300 Million domestically already released at the box office. This year? 3. And really outside of TLJ, what movie is just locked to reach that number between now and end of the year?? I guess Justice League seems like a strong lock considering DCEU is 3 for 3 in doing that so far but who knows really. Spidey after a terrific weekend seem like a lock to reach it especially as the WOM was even better then the strong reviews. Now? Not so much. It is at $208 million after this weekend so it is going to be a long crawl towards $300 million assuming it makes it.

 

$56 million is disappointing for a movie that follows a $72 million OW and has outstanding word of mouth.

This is what competition does though.

 

This is indeed due to tough competition yes. I would have guessed on about $ 65 - 70 mill for Apes 3. But again, the movie is pretty grim looking. Next week both Valerian and Dunkirk is going to premiere. Dunkirk has som stellar buzz going on now, Hans Zimmer`s score is supposed to be fantastic. Valerian is not for everyone it seems, as i thought. Could be another cult hit for Luc Besson. But it carries a very big budget.

Looking at that cast picture of Avengers Infinity War - i start to think:
How much screentime will each of those characters have on their own?
Who is the protagonist and antagonist? For real. Yeah, i know Brolin is the big bad, but still.
How much extra will this movie cost because of a logical pay rise for all of them?

 

But that movie is going to rock. I have dibs that it will not only destroy the ham solo movie, but will make more than the last Jedi. Also, avatar 2 is for real, with principal filming beginning on sept 5.

 

i dont know why i read this thread anymore cause uts reverted to pre Tfa gloom....tfa made 2 billion. r1made one billion, a movie that had zero commection to tfa and one in which the entirecmain cast dies.....if tlj performs around the middle of those 2 movies it would still put it over avengers 2, which prre rrlease was supposed to be the biggest hit of all time but didnt even finish second at the bo that year...will infinty wars beT han solo? easily...the last jedi? betting against a big sw film is like betting agaimst tom brady iithe 4th quarter of a superbowl..

 

This might sound absurd but I have a strong feeling that this will make more money than TFA both domestic and worldwide

 

Othini

While I agree that was due partly stiff competition, I also think it is again a slump at the box office that is a long growing trend to go along with IMHO a rapid change the American appetite at the box office. Warning: I am going to use my words very carefully here because I absolute despise talking "hot button issues" on here especially politics since well, knowing about politics inside and out has been my profession since I was 22 years old plus I come to sites like this for an escape (and if that ever changes I will leave quietly) therefore I only going to say this that hopefully everyone can agree with: the world seemed a lot less chaotic in 2014 when Apes 2 came out therefore people were willing to see kind of a grim movie. Today though people are looking for simple escapes at the box office. Look at the Top 3 movies this year. They were all kind of silly "escape from reality" movies. There wasn't much realism in that all and none of them were too grim at all. That is why I am worried about Dunkirk. The buzz is stellar like you said but I really don't know how many people are wanting to go see a movie where the Allies are getting their butts handed them to for most of it. It also is one of the reasons I am little less bullish about TLJ then some on here. TFA was for the most part a silly fun popcorn flick. TLJ is looking like it was going to be anything like that. Relatively speaking that could have a major impact on the box office. Meanwhile Valerian despite getting some pretty good reviews will lucky to get it's money back which highlights a discussion I had with my oldest childhood friend (who happens to be my next door neighbor) while we were smoking a cigar outside of my garage after our wives and kids went to bed: Hollywood is really in a pickle. Everyone keeps saying "make original stuff" and yet when it does, they always seem to bomb. For all the talk of originiality, it truly is only sequels/big tent pole films that do anything. I mean Pirates 5 is going to be the "least successful" out of the series and still made over $700 million worldwide LOL! So I totally get why Hollywood just sticks with the sequel format. It's a much better bet then trying new stuff.

As for Infinity War it will be really REALLY interesting how they divide screen time up but from the very nuggets I been seeing (plus what Marvel has come out with), it seems like the focus of the film seems to be the following:

Antagonist? Thanos is obviously the main villian obviously as he tries to complete the Infinity Gaunlet but he will have help. Warning: Spoilers in that article:

http://uproxx.com/hitfix/avengers-infinity-war-black-order-children-of-thanos/2/

When it comes to the protagonist of the film, that is a lot tricker. I always assume that the main protagonists would shift since it's despite not being called a "two parter" is indeed that with Infinity Wars focusing on the Original Avengers while the sequel shifting it's focus to the Avengers 2.0 (Spidey, Ant-Man, Black Panther, Doctor Strange, Wasp, etc) but from what I been reading/hearing including talking to my "contact" friend in the business, that is not entirely true. According to her, I am sort of right but the true protagonists for the films will be WARNING possible spoilers: the GOTG specifically Peter Quill. As she said, "he is the one coming home to save his birth world from his adopted one. Plus too they didn't throw Adam in at the end of GOTG 2 just for giggles.

That dfollows the comic pretty well so it makes sense combined with it making a lot of sense both story and even business wise. The price for this will be insane. The reported $1 billion for both films was obviously ridicilous but I would not be surprised if Disney shells out about $600 million for both of these films. And considering they are a lock to make at least $2-3 billion worldwide, it seems like a insanely good bet.

 

Han Solo will not compete with Avengers. Infinity War will probably perform as other huge Marvel tentpole movies and make most of its money in the first 2, 3 weekends. I could foresee a massive opening though, possibly over $ 220 mill. And international will be massive. But the movie ( Infinity War) still need to show up something new and breathtaking and need the usual WOM to climb to higher levels. I bet it will beat Age of Ultron`s total though. But maybe not by that huge margin as we might think.

I will wait for Avatar. Maybe.

Luke02
Did not see your reply before posting. But i do agree with that political view too, even if we probably should not discuss it here. Maybe people are looking for something more ...lighter now. It could bode well for Star Wars, as i don`t think TLJ will be very, very dark. There will be darker twists though.

How do you explain half of America watching the not so light GOT tonight then?

 

funny people who thought tfa would make 2 billion were thought ti be delusional but imfinity wars is gonna make 3 billion...based on?

 

SKYGUY23

That is really absurd sorry. I hope you are correct but it is almost impossible for TLJ to be even close at least domestically. Maybe it catches on in China and some other markets TFA "struggled" but I really don't see any scenario where it can even close to $900 million domestically. TFA was a perfect storm that had all the ingredients mixed in just right. Doing that twice is essentially impossible. Even Lucas could not do it. Not to say TESB and ROTJ were "box office bombs", they never were not able to reach what ANH did at the box office. Creating a true box office phenomenon happen only like once a decade. I am going to be 40 next year and I only seen about 4 of them: E.T., Titanic, Avatar and TFA. I just don't see a situation where TLJ becomes #5 on that list.

vong333

I would be beyond shocked if Infinity War doesn't only soundly beat Han Solo but pretty much every movie that isn't named Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, which as of right now seems to be the only movie standing Infinity War from being #1 at the box office in 2018. And you know who else would be shocked? Disney. There is no way they are expecting or even hoping Infinity War loses to Han Solo unless it's a situation where Han Solo somehow makes like $800 million domestically and Infinity War only makes $799 million LOL! They simply too much riding on Infinity War to be like in the Top 5 for the box office next year unless again something crazy happens. It has to be Top 3 and really, either #2 or #1. Everything else would be a true disappointment unless something truly truly unexpected again.

And not only is Avatar 2 happening..but so is four other sequels. Will see if the cameras start rolling on September 5th. Cameron is the most tempermentual director in Hollywood but his track record speaks for itself as I go by a simple rule, never bet against James Cameron.

Othini

I use to think Han Solo would moved but I am not so sure since I truly was clueless just how much they had slated next year:

- Feburary 16: Black Panther
- March 9: A Wrinkle in Time (which looks bloody horrific!)
- April 6: Magic Camp
- May 4: Infinity War
- May 25: Han Solo
- June 15: The Incredibles 2
- July 6: Ant-Man and the Wasp
- Nov 2: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
- Nov 21: Wreck-It Ralph 2
- Dec 25: Marry Poppins Returns

And keep in mine, June 2018 is stacked! Deadpool 2 and Jurassic World 2 are both slated to come out that month so pushing Han Solo to June might due more damage then simply releasing it Memorial Day weekend. So throwing it December and moving Marry Poppins 2 would be really tricking especially with The Nutcracker and the Four Realms coming out that month as well. They might just stick with the current slate and hope for the best.

 

i would be surprised if han solo even makes the billlion rogue one made. but then again 1 billon was the high estimate some people were giving TFA in 2014 and early 2015.

we are comparing a spin off to an episode. and unless we think rogue one somehow damaged Tfa's credibility (are people wondering why they arent going to attack the death star in the last jedi?) or the movie just flat out sucks (not likely from everything ive read) then i dont see why it cant hit 1.5 billion.