Arena The Major League Baseball Thread

Hard for me on the weekend at all. Thursday night or maybe friday is fine.

edit: unless I can make my picks before hand and they'll be ready to be drafted for it

 

I can do weekend (maybe/maybe not Friday night). And this would be a Live Draft, correct?

 

8 is fine. is it live draft?

And how many pitchers? Starting pitchers? I've only done the MLB.com version so I don't know the espn

 

I've seen variations on that with 3 SP, but I'm fine with whatever. I just like building my own pitching staffs.

 

That 30% chance of rain better now affect the Dodgers home opener on Monday.

 

I will definitely play.

 

I respectfully decline.

 

How lame is that?

 

I'm not a fan of these types of fantasy games, and I'm choosing to not go on a rant as to why I feel that way.

 

Johan Santana is most likely done for the season and possibly his career. He likely needs another capsule surgery, the same he had at the end of the 2010 season. And because it's the Mets, his contract isn't insured, so they owe him over $30 million to never pitch for them again.

Amazing.

 

I think it largely depends on your criteria. All told, they Mets will have paid him about $132 million, all for putting up about 15.2 WAR (your mileage may vary with respect to various advanced metrics, but I'm a fan). Over the last few years, the rough valuation for 1 WAR on the open market is about $5 million, making Santana worth roughly $75 million as a player with the Mets. Keeping in mind that prior to getting hurt, the Mets were more than getting their money's worth, as they only paid him about $56 million over the first three years where he posted 15.0 WAR. And I think going in they knew he'd be overpaid over the final years of his contract, the hope was that he'd make it worth it by then.

But if you start to include postseasons and such, then yeah, it was a pretty terrible contract. I just don't know how much you can include things like that when making these types of calls. Barry Zito is a solid example. His contract was panned the minute he signed it, he will ultimately be paid $126 million by the Giants and has posted 3.0 WAR (for contrast, Santana posted a 3.3 WAR season in 2009 when he made 25 starts and only threw 166 innings). By any measure that is a debacle of a contract. But with two World Series wins, does that make it better than Santana's?

And Santana has his own milestone moment, throwing the first no-hitter in Mets history. Ultimately it has no inherent value, but every single Met fan was waiting for that moment. I still remember the feeling a week later when I realized that it was something that had actually happened. It's sad in its own way that it was that meaningful, but there was a feeling that he earned his whole contract with that one night.

In the end, a bad contract to be sure, but if you ever actually look at long-term contracts, especially for pitchers, the vast majority look bad after the fact. Rater than being looked at as one of the worst contracts in history, I think this will be more seen as a cautionary tale. Prior to 2009, Santana had started at least 33 games and thrown at least 219 innings for five straight years. That's pretty remarkable consistency, but shows just how fragile pitching can be, and how bad any long-term deal can look at the end. Let's see how Felix Hernandez's deal looks in 5 or 6 years.

Amazing.

 

This is the reason why locking up pitchers on expensive long-term deals is ludicrous; it typically backfires.

 

Again, that depends on how you classify "Ludicrous" and "Backfires". If you go into the deal knowing that the last couple of years are going to be way overpaid, but you have to give them that money and those years to get them sign ... and the first 3-4 years of the deal are your "window of opportunity" anyways ... what's the big deal on overpaying that last few years?

Outside of a few select teams, there aren't many who can afford to contend year-in and year-out. So, if you are a fan of a small or middle-market team, wouldn't you rather see your team pay too much money for too many years to a top free agent pitcher, have 3 years of contention, and then that albatross contract on your hands as you rebuild? As opposed to coming close to contending, but never getting there?

This is why the luxury tax needs to cut both ways. Teams that don't spend near enough money are as bad - maybe worse - for competitive balance than the Yankees.

 

Miami could have had a great team this year if they kept their players. I thought they were overhyped last year, and was right but thought they could of been a threat this year...oh well

 

Houston needs to be charging $1 for any seat in the house this year. That's the appropriate charge compared to quality. And everyone spending less than Cleveland should be ashamed.