The Monty Hall Problem

Correct. He has no choice (if there are 3 boxes) on which one to open if you picked a wrong box. He has to open the other wrong box. Just you don't know if he had to do that or not!

 

um, guys, you know I'm jesting right?

 

yeah. And I just confessed to Halibut via PM that I agreed with him waaaaay back when he offered his explanation. I was just in a mischievious mood.

 

Chet, I just opened one of the boxes and there was a note inside, addressed to you .... with a picture ....






[image=ftp://ftp.sunet.se/pub/pictures/tv.film/X_Files/xf_8.jpg]

 

Okay. let's put an end to comparing this with government conspiracies and life models and the like. It's all irrelevant.

Here is a complete logical series of statements

1) If you pick the wrong box to start with, you will ALWAYS win if you switch
2) The probability of picking the wrong box to start with is 2/3

Therefore, by combining these 2 facts, the probability of winning of you switch is 2/3

Don't just respond with "It must be 50-50". Explain to me WHY you think these statements are false

 

//slaps forehead

 

*BEFORE* the game you could say that the probability is blah blah that it's best to change...


BUT



when you are left with the choice - box A or box B the probability is 50:50


damn - this is getting dull.

 

I believed eons ago. And what thanks did I get for it? Eh?

 

//gives TTG a cookie

 

Hey!

Where's my cookie!

I have 3 lines in my sig devoted to BYP, 3, count 'em!

 

A thought following on from what TC said:

1) If you pick the wrong box to start with, you will ALWAYS win if you switch

This statement refers to the point at which you switch or don't switch.

2) The probability of picking the wrong box to start with is 2/3

This statement refers to the start of the game.

Can they therfore be run next to each other as part of the same argument, or is it a semantic trick? Does the whole mathematical prooof revolve around the same trick? Does reality hold some memory of the choices you made earlier in the game, or are you just down the a 50-50 choice and wasting your time thinking about decisions you made earlier which no longer have any relevance?

I rang Agent Mulder's line but someone called Dog Eat Dog answered.

[image=ftp://ftp.sunet.se/pub/pictures/tv.film/X_Files/xf_8.jpg]

 

Hey thanks, can I have a cup of Pat On The Head to dip my cookie in?

 

remember, your Government is lying to you.

when my office finally got a court order to examine President Kennedy's brain in the National Archives in the hopes of finding from what direction the bullets came, we were told by the government the President's brain had disappeared!

In the same way, your teachers are lying to you......

 

1) If you pick the wrong box to start with, you will ALWAYS win if you switch

This statement refers to the point at which you switch or don't switch.

No it doesn't. It refers to the whole process of picking, host opening, and switching. If you pick the wrong box, the host HAS to open the other wrong box, meaning you WILL win if you switch

2) The probability of picking the wrong box to start with is 2/3

This statement refers to the start of the game.

Yes it does

Can they therfore be run next to each other as part of the same argument, or is it a semantic trick? Does the whole mathematical prooof revolve around the same trick?

It is honestly not a semantic trick. Just do a webserach for "Monty Hall", and you'll find proofs from professors and all sorts

 

OJK has a point you know. It's a question of free choice.

You're all asking the wrong questions.

That's the real question, isn't it - "Why?" - the "how" is just "scenery" for the suckers ... Oswald, Ruby, Cuba, Mafia, it keeps people guessing like a parlour game, but it prevents them from asking the most important question - Why? Why was Kennedy killed? Who benefited? Who has the power to cover it up? ...

All of you, ask yourselves WHY halibut asked you this?

 

Oh God, here we go again. Look, just take the money. forget the boxes !

 

I just read all six pages of this thread - still none the wiser and I have a headache -
reminds me of that time I went to school.

what's are these boxes of? can mine be made of glass?

 

I just read all six pages of this thread - still none the wiser and I have a headache -


Likewise, except this thread gave me bumitch nervosa.

 

I am astounded. This is the 143rd post and....





















WE'RE STILL ON TOPIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

A monumental moment in the history of the British Isles - Regional General Discussion forum!

 

*Walks into thread.....................Walks right back out again*