Arena The Official ATP Discussion Thread - now discussing the U.S. Open

eh, grass is djokovic's worst surface. he'll most likely lose at queen's and wimbledon, but the way he's playing anything is possible. he has definitely made "the leap".

i don't think federer is quite done yet, but wilmbledon is the only major i would give him a chance to win this year.

 

McEnroe was quite humble in commenting on Djokovic's streak, said it was far superior to his own, given the increased depth of quality. It would certainly be appropriate if he broke the record at the French, given how McEnroe's streak ended there. Still remember watching that match, Mac was in complete command, astonishing for him on clay, then the incident with the photographer (was that you, KW?!!!) and it was a totally different match from then on. Mac went on to dominate the rest of the year (won Wimbledon and the US Open easily), iirc he only lost 3 matches all year. But that loss in Paris spoiled the year somehow.

tom, even if grass is Djokovic's weakest surface, given how poor Federer looks at this point, who would the favorite there be?

 

i would take the defending champ.

 

McEnroe was overpowering Lendl and then it fell apart. McEnroe reeled off 20 straight victories after that loss and obliterated Jimmy Connors at Wimbledon, a victory on par with Nadal's near-bageling of Federer in 2008. Connors may as well have been swinging a matchstick.

I wish McEnroe had been able to finish off Lendl, and had played in the Australian Open in 1984. I don't think there's much doubt that he would have won that and the Grand Slam along with it, coupled with a French Open victory. I don't think any player was in that kind of total command again until Federer's peak years.

i would take the defending champ.


That's Rafael Nadal. Federer last won in 2009.

(was that you, KW?!!!

I couldn't handle sports at that level. You take a high number of shots in search of just one or two good ones.

 

uh yeah, i know. guess i should have been more clear.

edit: just to be totally clear i think nadal should be the favorite at wimbledon as of right now. but if djokovic beats him at the french and wins queens then obviously i would give him the nod.

 

the thing is, though, would you have picked Nadal to win Wimbledon the first time -- against Federer, no less? Or, for that matter, Agassi? It doesn't seem like there's really a great grass player (a la Sampras, Edberg, McEnroe, etc, or even the real serve and volley specialists -- remember Roscoe Tanner? Or the Crotian guy from the late 90s -- can't remember his name!) right now, which is why I think you can't completely count Novakovic out.

 

i agree, it's also why you can't count federer out. maybe someone new will break through. i'm not a big murray supporter but i usually pull for him at wimbledon (just like i root for tsonga, monfils, etc. at the french).

 

Murray should never be counted out at Wimbledon. I really want to see him in a Wimby final because that would be such an occasion.

For the French, Monfils is the best hope on clay. Tsonga is a hrad court player and Gasguet is best on the grass. France has tons of players in the top 100 but none that are serious gran slam threats(excpet Mofnils on clay).


Draw comes out tomorrow morning.

 

Roddick pulls out of the French Open. What will ESPN do? The Williams sisters and now Roddick out. Hopefully Harrison qualifies(plays 3rd round qualies tomorrow vs Marti).

 

Goran Ivanisevic. And he made his first final in 1992 (and 2 others), before coming back from a declining career as a wildcard to deny Pat Rafter in 2001. One of my favourite players.

 

I remember both of those matches so well. On the Wimbledon final, the match go tan incredible amount of hype, and few were expecting the blowout. I overslept, by the time I woke up, Mac was already serving for the match. Just an absolute drubbing, which I, as a McEnroe fan (same hometown, Douglaston, NY) and Connors hater, absolutely loved.

 

I just watched highlights from that match on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoOwJlysdLI

McEnroe could do no wrong. Interestingly, both McEnroe and Nadal lost four games in their respective routs. Federer managed three games in the second set, only to be completely destroyed in the third set at 6-0. Connors at least took no less than one game in each set.

 

yikes, Nadal draws Isner in the 1st round and Federer draws Lopez. Those are two very tough 1st round matches

I'll have full draw analysis later when the qualifiers are placed.

 

crazy that federer would draw lopez after that epic match they just had in madrid. i expect federer will be able to break serve a lot more on the slower surface.

isner is a bad draw, but nadal should still cruise.

 

Here's the draw I spilt it into eighths


now my analysis of the 128 draw: (# signifies seed, Q= qualifier, LL=Lucky Loser, W=Wild Card)


1 Rafael Nadal vs John Isner
Santiago Giraldo vs Pablo Andujar
Pablo Cuevas vs (Q)Antonio Veic
28 Nikolay Davydenko vs (Q)Denis Gremelmayr
24 Sam Querrey vs Philipp Kohlschreiber
Ivan Ljubicic vs Somdev Devvarman
Dmitry Tursonov vs Xavier Malisse
16 Fernando Verdaso vs Juan Monaco

Actually a somewhat difficult section for Nadal. Isner(former UGA Bulldog) is tough first round opponent. He is bad on clay but his serve is one of the best in the world and when on, can beat anyone. Davydenko is always a threat on clay despite his poor form. Verdasco is also a good clay court player who has had a poor season thus far, which is why he has slipped down to #16 in the world. Tough 1st round match for my Indian pal Somdev Devvarman. This section has dangerous floaters like Malisse and Kohlschrieber(who will beat Querrey).
Pick out of this section: Rafael Nadal


10 Mardy Fish vs Ricardo Mello
Daniel Gimeno-Traver vs Robin Haase
Jeremy Chardy vs Grigor Dimitrov
18 Gilles Simon vs Michael Russell
27 Marcos Baghdatis vs Frederico Gil
(Q)Leonardo Mayer vs Dustin Brown
(Q) Albert Ramos vs (Q)Javier Marti
5 Robin Soderling vs Benjamin Becker

Relatively weak section. Fish is a 10 seed but dreadful on the clay and could very well lose in the 1st round to the Brazilian Mello. Chardy vs Dimitrov is the battle of talented but mentally weak youngsters it will be a battle of who crackes first. Rasta man Dustin Brown has a wimmable game in the 1st round. 2 time defending runner-up Robin Soderling should advance out of this section.
Pick: Robin Soderling


4 Andy Murray vs (Q)Eric Prodon
(LL)Simone Bolelli vs (Q)Frank Dancevic
(W)Arnaud Clement vs Filippo Volandri
26 Milos Raonic vs Michael Berrer
21 Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Rainer Schuettler
Andreas Haider-Maurer vs Ryan Sweeting
Tobias Kamke vs Olivier Rochus
15 Viktor Troicki vs Julian Reister

Andy Murray nearly beat Djokovic to end his streak just two weeks ago. Murray is not known for his clay court prowless but he is playing quite well on it this year. Nobody in this section will bother him. Troicki is a bad top 20 player. Dolgopolov is dangerous, his game is so unique and sporadic. When he has a great day he is unbeatable, but when he has an off day its awful. Dolgopolov's game is so out of the box, the opponent never knows what he will do next. Raonic the huge serving Canadian needs some more years under his belt to be a threat.
Pick: Andy Murray


11 Nicolas Almagro vs (Q)Lukasz Kubot
Carlos Berlocq vs (W)Bernard Tomic
Potiot Starace vs (Q)Alejandro Falla
20 Florian Mayer vs Igor Kunitsyn
32 Kevin Anderson vs Nicolas Mahut
Juan Ingacio Chela vs (W)Tim Smyczek
(W)Edouard Roger-Vasselin vs (Q)Lukas Rosol
8 Jurgen Melzer vs (LL)Andreas Beck

Open section. Melzer was a semifinalsit last year. Almagro is always great on clay and I expect him to run through this section,even over Melzer. Not much else interesting in this section, Mayer is #20 but not nearly that good in actuality.
Pick: Nicolas Almagro


7 David Ferrer vs Jarkko Nieminen
Julien Benneteau vs Rui Machado
Kei Nishikori vs Yen-Hsun Lu
31 Sergiy Stakhovsky vs (Q)David Guez
22 Michael Llodra vs (Q)Steve Darcis
Philipp Petzschner vs Mischa Zverev
Adrian Mannarino vs (W)Guillaume Rufin
9 Gael Monfils vs (Q)Bjorn Phau

Ferrer vs Monfils round of 16 match would be a fiercracker of a match. Both are strong on the clay and both extremely athletic. None of the others players in the section will disrupt that potential match. Ferrer is more solid, both players are very defensive. Monfils will have the crowd behind him. Will be one of the best matches of the tournament. I give the slight edge to Monfils
Pick: Gael Monfils


14 Stanislas Wawrinka vs (Q)Augustin Genesse
(Q)Thomas Schoorel vs Maximo Gonzalez
Florent Serra vs Igor Andreev
17 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs Jan Hajek
29 Janko Tipsarevic vs Brian Dabul
Ivan Dod

 

I am hopeful that the wizard of clay can win another title. Nadal is still the master of Roland Garros until someone truly shows otherwise in a final. His loss in 2009 doesn't count to me, as he was injured during that tournament.

 

Dull opening day. I don't like the Sunday start. French is the only major to start on a Sunday rather than Monday. Only thing of note today was Cilic losing in straights to Ramirez-Hidalgo who beofr today had only made it past the 1st round a major one other time in his career.

 

Tomorrow at 3 there is the final four of college tennis action. Live video for every court
They play 3 doubles and 6 singles.

It will be #1 Virginia vs #4 Ohio State and #2 Southern Cal vs #6 Georgia. Both matches will be going on at same time. Final is Tuesday at 3 on ESPNU.

 

Isner nearly takes out Nadal. That would have made the draw very interesting.


My semifinal pick Almagro goes down in flames to Kubot, blowing a 2 set lead.

 

Some great matches tomorrow:

Gasquet vs Bellucci - Edge Gasquet because of the home crowd. Probably a 5 setter

Federer vs Tipsarevic - Tipsy gets up for the big matches. Loves to get big name scapls. Alays gives Federer a rough time. Real test for Roger

Tsonga vs Wawrinka - Again the crownd will help Tsonga. Wawrinka is better on clay than tsonga but has been shaky lately Tsonga to win.

and finally

Djokovic vs Del Potro - Love the match-up. Hopefully Delpo can bring the good stuff and make a match out of it. This is the last match on Chatrier for the day so will likely fall into the ESPN2 live window.

 

Djokovic and Del Potro split 6-3 sets and because of poor scheduling will have too finish tomorrow. They didn't start until about 7:45 paris time and got called after Del Potro took the 2nd. The announcers think it helps Delpo but I don't agree. He had momentum and now Djokovic can come out firing fresh once again

 

just watched the recording of Hantuchova destroying Wozniacki.


6 qualifiers made the round of 16, which creates interesting draws and such but also gives easy matches to the top guys late in the tournament. Nadal and Soderling romped today. 5 unseeded players made the round of 16, two are assured to make the quarterfinals.

 

Semifinals are the top 4 seeds. Tomorrow.

 

I meant to post it yesterday: I had a feeling Federer would beat Djokovic, and he did in an epic match. It'll be Federer-Nadal in the final. The way it seems it's always meant to be.

Given how hard Federer had to work, Nadal has to be a heavy favorite. That and the last time they met at Roland Garros, Nadal obliterated Federer.

 

I was surprised at how pro-Federer the crowd was today.

I think that Nadal will win, but we'll see.