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  1. In Memory of LAJ_FETT: Please share your remembrances and condolences HERE

Amph The Oscar Race: Now Disc. Ranking the Oscar hosts of the past 20 years

Discussion in 'Community' started by Zaz, Nov 13, 2005.

  1. Moff_D

    Moff_D Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Aug 3, 2002
    The one thing that King Kong will have against it is the "we've honored Peter Jackson enough lately" factor, otherwise it would be a strong contender in major categories. However, that simple fact, which the Academy goes by much too often, could hinder its chances for anything. However, if it is so good it can't be ignored, and indications are it is, then they may have no choice but to recognize it with nominations at least.
     
  2. Tyranus_the_Hutt

    Tyranus_the_Hutt Jedi Padawan star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 14, 2004
    It is looking like Memoirs of a Geisha and Munich are really losing steam as serious Oscar threats.

    That?s a very good point. "Memoirs of a Geisha" is getting roasted by the critical community, and the general feeling seems to be that the film is more of a sentimentalized soap opera rather than a serious consideration of its subject matter; this will in turn limit the picture?s chances of success in the major award categories (although it will likely be recognized for its technical merit). Although "Munich" has been receiving some mixed reviews from well-known critics, it has featured prominently in several of the critics? awards, which means that the film may be able to ride Spielberg?s gravitas alone to procure a number of Oscar nominations.

    Geisha is a critical flop and Munich apparently isn't as good as it should be.

    Indeed, "Geisha" looks to be a critical disappointment. "Munich" is getting some mixed early buzz, so perhaps it isn?t on par with something like "Schindler?s List," but I wouldn?t count it (or Spielberg for that matter) out yet.

    Brokeback Mountain could charge right through that wide open door.

    Look at the critics? awards below and you will notice that "Brokeback Mountain" has emerged as the early favorite to garner multiple Oscar nominations.

    King Kong and/or Narnia could be in play as both are well-regarded at the moment and getting positive to rave reviews.

    "Kong" and "Narnia" will both receive technical nominations, but whether they get anything beyond that remains to be seen; certainly, "Kong" has the better shot at scoring a Best Picture nomination, but the fact that LOTR and Jackson won big at the Oscars a couple of years ago, in addition to the film?s expansive running time (3 hours, 7 minutes, 70 of which pass before we actually get to Kong; it?s also worth noting that nearly all of the critics who have praised "Kong," point to its length as being one of the few detriments) could frustrate some viewers. By comparison, "Brokeback," while not short, clocks in at a neat 130 minutes which, coupled with the film?s staggering emotional impact, could increase its odds tremendously. I should also mention that Spielberg?s "Munich" is apparently somewhere in the vicinity of 167 minutes in length, which might also prove to be a difficulty should the film be anything less than enthralling; if that is the case, Clooney?s superb "Good Night, and Good Luck" could play well for voters, due in part to its lean 93-minute running time.

    Will: Munich, Brokeback Mountain, Good Night and Good Luck, King Kong, Squid and the Whale

    All of the above films have a very reasonable shot of being nominated for Best Picture; "Brokeback" is almost definite, whereas the others are more difficult to gauge, especially "Munich."

    Won't: Crash, Jarhead, Syriana, Rent, Narnia

    I predict that "Crash" will receive a Best Picture nomination; while I don?t consider it to be amongst the top 10 films released this year, it is a very strong picture that undeniably made a huge impact with moviegoers when it opened last spring. "Socially aware" pictures such as "Crash," are often like lightning-rods for prestigious awards and so forth, something that will obviously work in the film?s favor.

    As for the rest of those titles, I would agree that "Jarhead," "Rent," and "Narnia" will not get nominated for Best Picture. I liked both "Jarhead" and "Narnia," but I can?t see them (especially the former, which is somewhat of a divisive film) obtaining "major" nominations (although the great cinematographer ? and Academy favorite ? Roger Deakins will probably get nominated for his work on "Jarhead," and deservedly so). "Rent" was for me a more problematic film (for a variety of reasons that I won?t get into here), and will probably delight some audiences while alienating others. However, I do feel that Rosario Dawson, who gave what is arguably the film?s best performance, has a legitimate shot at getting a Best Supporting Actress nomination.

    For a nomination, I
     
  3. Tyranus_the_Hutt

    Tyranus_the_Hutt Jedi Padawan star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 14, 2004
    I don?t usually like to double-post, but since there are further critics? awards coming in, I thought I?d contribute them.

    New York Film Critics Circle:
    picture: Brokeback Mountain
    director: Ang Lee
    actor: Heath Ledger
    actress: Reese Witherspoon
    supp. actor: William Hurt
    supp. actress: Maria Bello
    screenplay: The Squid and the Whale

    The National Board of Review:

    BEST TEN FILMS OF 2005

    Best Film: Good Night, And Good Luck

    And, in alphabetical order:

    Brokeback Mountain
    Capote
    Crash
    History of Violence
    Match Point
    Memoirs of a Geisha
    Munich
    Syriana
    Walk the Line

    BEST FIVE FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILMS OF 2005
    Best Foreign-Language Film: Paradise Now

    And, in alphabetical order:

    2046
    Balzac and the Little Chinese Seamstress
    Downfall
    Walk on Water

    BEST FIVE DOCUMENTARIES OF 2005

    Best Documentary: March of the Penguins

    And, in alphabetical order:
    Ballets Russes
    Grizzly Man
    Mad Hot Ballroom
    Murderball

    Best Animated Feature: Tim Burton?s Corpse Bride
    Best Director: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
    Best Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
    Best Actress: Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
    Best Supporting Actor: Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
    Best Supporting Actress: Gong Li, Memoirs of a Geisha
    Best Acting By An Ensemble: Mrs. Henderson Presents
    Breakthrough Performance Actor: Terrence Howard, Crash, Get Rich or Die Tryin? and Hustle & Flow
    Breakthrough Performance Actress: Q?Orianka Kilcher, The New World
    Best Directorial Debut: Julian Fellowes, Separate Lies
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Stephen Gaghan, Syriana
    Best Original Screenplay: Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale
    Best Film or Mini-Series Made for Cable TV: Lackawanna Blues
    Career Achievement: Jane Fonda
    Career Achievement in Film Music Composition: Howard Shore
    Outstanding Achievement in Special Effects: King Kong
    Billy Wilder Award for Excellence in Direction: David Cronenberg
    William K. Everson Award for Film History: George Feltenstein
    Producer of the Year Award: Saul Zaentz
    Special Recognition of Films That Reflect Freedom of _Expression:
    Innocent Voices and The Untold Story of Emmett Louis Till
    Special Mention for Excellence in Filmmaking:

    (Listed Alphabetically)

    Breakfast on Pluto
    Cape of Good Hope
    The Dying Gaul
    Everything Is Illuminated
    Hustle & Flow
    Junebug
    Layer Cake
    Lord of War
    Nine Lives
    The Thing About My Folks
    The Upside of Anger

    I find it interesting that the poorly-received "Memoirs of a Geisha" is continuing to win critics? awards, when it was they who (in large part) proclaimed the film to be a failure. These lists are usually good indicators as to who and what is going to be nominated for Oscars, so perhaps "Geisha" could garner some nods, especially if the film is warmly received by Academy voters (although Sony will have to make quite a promotional push to help the movie past the aforementioned lukewarm reviews). At this point, it seems as though Chinese superstar Gong Li is a Best Supporting Actress candidate, especially with her NBR win. Also, it would appear that William Hurt is getting a lot of attention for his scenery-chewing cameo in Cronenberg?s "A History of Violence," and after picking up his second critics? award of the season (NYFCC, above), it is likely that he will be nominated for an Oscar as well (despite some notoriously prickly behavior in the past, I understand that Hurt is well-respected by the Academy).
     
  4. Captain_Typho

    Captain_Typho Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 30, 2003
    the globes will be revealed tomorrow morning. Come on Ian! [face_praying]
     
  5. Tyranus_the_Hutt

    Tyranus_the_Hutt Jedi Padawan star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 14, 2004
    Here is an update of critics' awards, as well as this year's list of Golden Globe nominations (only those which pertain to motion pictures, mind you):

    San Francisco Film Critics:

    Best Picture: "Brokeback Mountain"
    Best Director: Ang Lee for "Brokeback Mountain"
    Best Screenplay: "Good Night, And Good Luck," by George Clooney and Grant Heslov
    Best Actor: Heath Ledger for "Brokeback Mountain"
    Best Actress: Reese Witherspoon for "Walk the Line"
    Best Supporting Actor: Kevin Costner for "The Upside of Anger"
    Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams for "Junebug"
    Best Foreign Language Film: "Caché" ("Hidden")
    Best Documentary: "Grizzly Man"
    Marlon Riggs Award: Jenni Olsen, director of "The Joy of Life"

    Golden Globe Nominations:

    Best Pic, Drama:
    Brokeback Mountain
    The Constant Gardener
    Good Night, and Good Luck
    A History of Violence
    Match Point

    Director:
    Woody Allen, Match Point
    George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
    Peter Jackson, King Kong
    Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
    Fernando Mereilles, The Constant Gardener
    Steven Spielberg, Munich

    Actor, Drama:
    Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
    Terence Howard, Hustle and Flow
    Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
    David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

    Best Pic, Musical/Comedy:
    Mrs. Henderson Presents
    Pride Prejudice
    The Producers
    Squid and Whale
    Walk the Line

    Actor, Musical/Comedy:
    Peirce Brosnan, The Matador
    Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale
    Johnny Depp, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
    Nathan Lane, The Producers
    Cillian Murphy,Breakfast on Pluto
    Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line

    Actress - Comedy:
    Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
    Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice
    Laura Linney, Squid and the Whale
    Sarah Jessica Parker, The Family Stone
    Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

    Actress - Drama:
    Maria Bello, A History of Violence
    Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
    Gwyneth Paltrow, Proof
    Charlize Theron, North Country
    Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha

    Supporting Actor:
    George Clooney, Syriana
    Matt Dillon, Crash
    Wil Farrell, The Producers
    Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
    Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents

    Actress, Musical/Comedy:
    Scarlett Johannsson, Match Point
    Shirley MacLaine, In Her Shoes
    Frances McDormand, North Country
    Rachel Weisz, Contant Gardener
    Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

    Original Score:
    Syriana
    King Kong
    Brokeback Mountain
    Chronicles of Narnia
    Memoirs of a Geisha

    Screenplay:
    Match Point
    Good Night
    Crash
    Munich
    Brokeback Mountain

    Song:
    Brokeback Mountain
    Crhistmas in Love (?)
    The Producers
    Transamerica
    Chronicles of Narnia

    Foreign Language:
    Kung Fu Hustle
    The Promise
    Merry Christmas
    Paradise Now
    Tsotsi

    Cecil B. DeMille Award - Anthony Hopkins

    Take these nominations with a grain of salt, as they are voted upon by the Hollywood Foreign Press, which is not affiliated with the A.M.P.A.S. (according to oscarwatch.com, for instance, the HFP wasn?t too fond of LOTR, and yet that franchise went on to win a large number of Oscars ? go figure). Anyway, it looks as though Woody Allen?s stock has risen significantly with the multiple nominations that his film "Match Point" has received; Roger Ebert recently said that the picture was Allen?s best in 15 years, so after the relative disappointment of "Anything Else" and "Curse of the Jade Scorpion," perhaps Woody has regained some of the directorial prowess that was evident in many of his earlier works, such as "Manhattan," "Hannah and Her Sisters," "Interiors," "Another Woman," and "Annie Hall."
     
  6. Moleman1138

    Moleman1138 Manager Emeritus star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Aug 18, 2004
    I guess Munich aint the front runner any more. Couldn't even grab a not for Best Picture-Drama
     
  7. Rogue1-and-a-half

    Rogue1-and-a-half Manager Emeritus who is writing his masterpiece star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2000
    Most interesting thing in that post is the nomination of Pierce Brosnan for The MAtador . . . maybe that movie is as good as I'm hoping it will be.
     
  8. Captain_Typho

    Captain_Typho Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 30, 2003
    Brokeback is gonna sweep this year.
     
  9. Zaz

    Zaz Jedi Knight star 9

    Registered:
    Oct 11, 1998
    "The Squid and the Whale" is a comedy?
     
  10. Captain_Typho

    Captain_Typho Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 30, 2003
    yes it is. And Jeff Danials is da man. Bout time he got some recognition.
     
  11. Rogue1-and-a-half

    Rogue1-and-a-half Manager Emeritus who is writing his masterpiece star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2000
    I should also say I'm glad to see Hopkins getting the DeMille award. It's about time.
     
  12. JediTrilobite

    JediTrilobite Jedi Grand Master star 7

    Registered:
    Nov 17, 1999
    I'm really hoping that Goodnight and Goodluck will get something -
     
  13. Zaz

    Zaz Jedi Knight star 9

    Registered:
    Oct 11, 1998
    Does anybody know when the Oscar nominees are announced?
     
  14. Zaz

    Zaz Jedi Knight star 9

    Registered:
    Oct 11, 1998
    According to EW, these awards are the best predictors of Best Picture Oscar:

    The Golden Globes (80 per cent accuracy)

    Producers Guild of America (60 per cent)

    Broadcast Film Critics Association (50 per cent)

    New York Film Critics Circle (10 per cent)

    National Board of Review (10 per cent)

    Los Angeles Film Critics Association (0 per cent)
     
  15. JediTrilobite

    JediTrilobite Jedi Grand Master star 7

    Registered:
    Nov 17, 1999
    I'm really surprised that Jarhead hasn't been nominated for anything yet.
     
  16. Drew_Atreides

    Drew_Atreides Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Apr 30, 2002
    Eh, the only thing i could see it being nominated for is Cinematography, or some other technical award like sound editing, or something.

    The performances were good, but not great. The movie was interesting, but not great. And for Gyllenhaal, i think this is the year of "Brokeback Mountain". If he gets nominated for anything, it'll be from THAT film.
     
  17. leia1964

    leia1964 Jedi Youngling star 1

    Registered:
    Apr 21, 2005
    I have a question that is just burning me up... since you guys seem to be very knowledgable in the area of the "movie awards", maybe you can enlighten me.

    Why is it that, for the most part, the movies that I am seeing nominated on all of these critic's lists and the Globes are movies that have made so much less money than the likes of RotS, WotW, GoF, (and soon to be big money makers) King Kong and Narnia? Here's how I thought it worked; the best movie of the year wins the award. Period. That simple. So if we look at the numbers and we see that people want to see a great movie like the ones I listed above then where are these other movies like Brokeback, Capote, Syriana, The Squid, coming from?

    Why is it that the critics AND especially Hollywood don't see a movie as a good movie the same way the public does? This is why Hollywood fails (and they keep trying to figure out why), because they give awards to movies that that, for the majority anyway, people don't think are good or worth paying the money to see. Am I missing something? I know it can't be that hard.

    The only logic I can derive from what I'm reading is this: The general movie-going public likes cgi, critics/Hollywood academy members do not. So my assumption is that the Academy Awards (and the Globes and others) really mean nothing to the general movie-going public. Again, this is why the studio exec's are still sitting there scratching their heads going... "gee, I just can't figure out what's wrong with the box office." Sheeeesh.
     
  18. Drew_Atreides

    Drew_Atreides Jedi Grand Master star 5

    Registered:
    Apr 30, 2002
    ..eh, alot of it has to do with taste...

    Being exposed to a greater number of movies then the general public sees.. (remember, it's a critics job to watch EVERY film that comes out in a year. The general public go to movies for fun and entertainment. Half the time, they aren't even aware that a film like "the Squid and the Whale" exists because a film like that does not receive the marketing campaign that a Star Wars or a King Kong does. People just aren't aware of it).


    Acting in a big budget film with lots of CGI is much more difficult then acting in a film where you're acting off of other people, thus it makes the job of acting a WHOLE lot easier in these smaller budget pictures (most performances in high calibre-special FX films are brutal for that reason, ya know?), thus you have much better performances in these smaller budget films.

    Like everything else in the world, you have your specialists who are well-spoken in the intricacies of movie-making, and then you have people who are much less interested in the technicalities and much more interested in just having a good time.

    The awards are, normally, awarded by people who are the type who are into the intricacies of filmmaking.

    Sometimes, of course, a bombastic, entertaining film is DESERVING of winning Best Picture. There is no denying that, in the past, there has been a slightly snobbish attitude among the award-giving set to ignore a film that makes alot of money. They're getting better, though. I mean, flicks like "Titanic", "Forrest Gump" and "ROTK" prove that..

     
  19. Rogue1-and-a-half

    Rogue1-and-a-half Manager Emeritus who is writing his masterpiece star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2000
    Well, popular opinion is hardly an accurate reflecter of quality.

    And, at base, the Oscars are the awards as given out by the industry, ie. the artists. The public have their own way to indicate the best film of the year. It's called the box office. The Oscars is just the artist's corollary to that.
     
  20. SeventhAngelicSlayer

    SeventhAngelicSlayer Jedi Youngling star 2

    Registered:
    Jul 18, 2005
    The box office doesn't really have a whole lot to do with the quality of a film. Some of my all-time favorites have tanked at the box office.
     
  21. Rogue1-and-a-half

    Rogue1-and-a-half Manager Emeritus who is writing his masterpiece star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Nov 2, 2000
    I'm not saying the box office picks good films, it picks films that the public chooses as good. Just as the Oscars pick films that the artists choose as good.

    Neither are an indication of quality necessarily.
     
  22. Zaz

    Zaz Jedi Knight star 9

    Registered:
    Oct 11, 1998
    Of course, just because a movie is an indie and as cheap as dirt, doesn't mean it's an artistic success either. :p
     
  23. solojones

    solojones Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Sep 27, 2000
    Or that it's any good. It's just as stupid to proclaim all indie films are inherently good as it is to say that awards should go to top box office performers. Neither being an indie film nor making a lot of money has much bearing on how good a film actually is.

    Critics lean too far to one direction to try to compensate for the frequent stupidity of movie goers. That's just how it is. The actual merit lies somewhere in between, mostly with the non-professional movie critic/film buff/fan types.

    By the way, the Golden Globe nominations this year are baffling and unexpected. I really don't know what to think of them at all. I can't imagine the Oscars following about 50% of that...
     
  24. Zaz

    Zaz Jedi Knight star 9

    Registered:
    Oct 11, 1998
    Some movies are already out of the running, including "Rent" and "The Producers" unfortunately.

     
  25. Captain_Typho

    Captain_Typho Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 30, 2003
    Sometimes I hate the way the academy works. They completely neglect fine performances like Ian McDiarmid in ROTS or Michael Cain in Muppet Christmas Carol just because of the nature of the film. It was a miracle Johnny Depp got nominated for POTC.