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The Second Year of the Obama Administration: Facts, Opinions and Discussions

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by Jedi Merkurian , Jan 20, 2010.

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  1. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Well, the US has never been perfect despite the fact that it's the world's only superpower. Like I said there are things to be learned from many countries besides the US. That also doesn't change the fact that economically, the US has been incredibly successful despite the current economic crisis.

    Watto, Europe is awesome. But, there's a reason why tons of people left Europe for the US and why we have issues with too many people trying to get in. The US is awesome too.
     
  2. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2000
    Yeah, succesful at borrowing.
    We'll still want that money back someday.
     
  3. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Given the rise of China, I'm not sure our status as the only superpower is a valid or accurate one.
     
  4. Mr44

    Mr44 VIP star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 21, 2002
    Ah, Jabba. well that's a different idea.

    I'm not sure "decline" actually fits either. It's more along the lines of what you pointed out, a transition. There's certainly not going to be any single country that replaces the US in the traditional bipolar (during the duration of the cold war) or even more recent unipolar hyper-power sense. It certainly looks like the economic dispersion is happening first, but the military realm is a bit different. I'm not sure any power is going to rival the US for at least the next 20-30 years, simply based on capability. But then again, point 1 also spills over to point 2, so strict military might might only matter if something like WWIII breaks out, or some sort of major regional conflict.

    We're entering an era were the responsibilities, capabilities, etc...are going to be shared, not replaced. That's not really a bad thing.

    EDIT: Watto, reference "no single model." Um, I agree. That was the point of my post that you replied to.
     
  5. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    if you're only talking about the current economic conditions...

    Being a superpower isn't based purely on economics. There are an awful lot of folks suffering in China still...suffering a lot more than most in the USA...

    Watto, why so bitter? :p
     
  6. Mr44

    Mr44 VIP star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 21, 2002
    And I'd say the idea of a unified "Asia" is never going to happen. There's never going to be a true version of the "Asian EU," because the individual countries are only succeeding right now by competing with each other. I suppose one should never say never, but "Asia" will only be a collective if a massive and widespread paradigm shift occurs within each country.

    Japan is never going to link up with China, nor India with Indonesia, etc... The Asian block is only successful right now because the respective powers are emulating the "industrial revolution" era from the past century. When the collective populations of China, India, etc.. start demanding equal access to wealth, health and environmental protections, basically everything that we've taken for granted for a long time now, the growth is going to come to a screeching halt. To be a bit stereotypical here, no one can support an entire economy by providing Microsoft tech support call centers, especially if those centers start paying their workers more than a dollar a day.

    China itself is fast reaching a guaranteed pension crisis, and when the government defaults on hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of defined benefits, which it is going to, it will be interesting to see what the results are.
     
  7. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Because no one suffered in the old Soviet Union?

    I mean, just going by the facts, China has 1. Massive global influence, 2. A large economic base, 3. A sizable nuclear arsenal, and 4. A political ideology that stands in some contrast to the American model. Sounds like a second superpower to me.
     
  8. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    A superpower is a state with a leading position in the international system and the ability to influence events and its own interests and project power on a worldwide scale to protect those interests; it is traditionally considered to be one step higher than a great power. ...

    I don't think it's quite there yet. Perhaps when it starts commanding the UN. :p
     
  9. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Because if there's one thing the US does, it's influence UN decisions to a greater extent than China.:rolleyes:
     
  10. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    what?

    How does that?

    :confused:

    What are you talking about?

    Here from 2006:

    To match the US by 2030, China would have to :

    1) Have an economy near the size of the US economy. If the US grows by 3.5% a year for the next 25 years, it will be $30 trillion in 2006 dollars by then. Note that this is a modest assumption for the US, given the accelerating nature of economic growth, but also note that world GDP only grows about 4% a year, and this might at most be 5% a year by 2030. China, with an economy of $2.2 trillion in nominal (not PPP) terms, would have to grow at 12% a year for the next 25 years straight to achieve the same size, which is already faster than its current 9-10% rate, if even that can be sustained for so long (no country, let alone a large one, has grown at more than 8% over such a long period). In other words, the progress that the US economy would make from 1945 to 2030 (85 years) would have to be achieved by China in just the 25 years from 2005 to 2030. Even then, this is just the total GDP, not per capita GDP, which would still be merely a fourth of America's.

    2) Create original consumer brands that are household names everywhere in the world (including in America), such as Coca-Cola, Nike, McDonalds, Citigroup, Xerox, Microsoft, or Google. Europe and Japan have created a few brands in a few select industries, but China currently has none. Observing how many American brand logos have populated billboards and sporting events in developing nations over just the last 15 years, one might argue that US dominance has even increased by this measure.

    3) Have a military capable of waging wars anywhere in the globe (even if it does not actually wage any). Part of the opposition that anti-Americans have to the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq is the envy arising from the US being the only country with the means to invade multiple medium-size countries in other continents and still sustain very few casualties. No other country currently is even near having the ability to project military power with such force and range. Mere nuclear weapons are no substitute for this. The inability of the rest of the world to do anything to halt genocide in Darfur is evidence of how such problems can only get addressed if and when America addresses them.

    4) Have major universities that are household names, that many of the worlds top students aspire to attend. 17 of the world's top 20 universities are in the US. Until top students in Europe, India, and even the US are filling out an application for a Chinese university alongside those of Harvard, Stanford, MIT, or Cambridge, China is not going to match the US in the knowledge economy. This also represents the obstacles China has to overcome to successfully conduct impactful scientific research.

    5) Attract the best and brightest to immigrate into China, where they can expect to live a good life in Chinese society. The US effectively receives a subsidy of $100 to $200 billion a year, as people educated at the expense of another nation immigrate here and promptly participate in the workforce. As smart as people within China are, unless they can attract non-Chinese talent that is otherwise going to the US, and even talented Americans, they will not have the same intellectual and psychological cross-pollination, and hence miss out on those economic benefits. The small matter of people not wanting to move into a country that is not a democracy also has to be resolved.

    6) Become the nation that produces the new inventions and corporations that are adopted by the mass market into their daily lives. From the telephone and airplane over a century ago, America has been the engine of almost all technological progress. Despite the fears of innovation going overseas, the big new technologies and influential applications continue to emerge from companies headquartered in the United States. Just in the
     
  11. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Your presumption that China is not a superpower because it doesn't exert a lot of influence in the United Nations is incredibly erroneous. As a P5 Nation, China holds veto power on the Security Council, and among other things has proved a critical factor in preventing aid to Darfur.

    So I was sarcastically pointing out that both the US and China influence the UN's decision-making a great deal. We hardly "command" it.

    And the Soviet Union didn't match most of the qualifications you just listed, so I fail to see how they're relevant.
     
  12. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Well, I was being somewhat facetious. The US has enormous power over the UN and can side-step it if it wishes, like, The Iraq War :p

    China can't exactly side-step the US...not like that.

    EDIT: I posted some more...stuff...above. :p
     
  13. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Sure they can, I mean, they basically own us at this point.
     
  14. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Eh...they're not exactly a match when it comes to military strength...sorry. The US still has the muscle there. Look, the point is that China is not a current superpower by any means even if they're on track to becoming one. See the list above.
     
  15. Ghost

    Ghost Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Oct 13, 2003
    The U.S. has been the only superpower since 1991. Iraq showed the peak of our power, misguided as it was, going in there unilaterally. When it started to go badly we stalled, and since 2008 with the financial crash and our powerlessness to defend Georgia from Russia coinciding with the Beijing Olympics. If the trend continues, we're going to be remembered as the world's shortest lone superpower. I'm not saying we're not great, there's many things we're great about, and I don't think our true strength comes from our economy or our military, but we are not the rulers of the world. And people, such as my own great-grandparents, who were immigrating from Europe were leaving behind a vastly different place than what it is today.

    I would disagree on #4, since Mao's death and the rise of Deng the Chinese have focused a lot more on pragmaticism and idealism, going for whatever works. The PRC has no ideology, although it is still nominally "communism with Chinese characteristics".


    I think "Superpowers" is an outdated notion. All nations have a large impact on each other, we are only going to become more and more interdependent. We are entering a multipolar world.

    China does have that, some may say it has even more international respect than the United States, especially amonng developing nations. It's done everything it can to join the global community and international organizations, foster ties with its Asian neighbors, play by the rules and gain authority peacefully though the current system, etc.

    But like I said above, "superpowers" are going to become an outdated 20th-century concept.

    While China could not successfully invade or attack us (without going to WMDs), I believe China could defend itself and defeat any U.S. offensive on mainland China.

    As for Taiwan, I personally believe the U.S. should stop sending it military aid. Most Taiwanese don't want independence, they voted in the anti-independence president in 2008. They have become economically independent on each other. Taiwan wants to keep the status quo for now, but will probablly eventually settle for a "two systems, one country" deal like Hong Kong enjoys now. If the U.S. could hel make a deal like that happen, we should. The Taiwan issue is a pointless strain on American-Chinese relations.

    Any war between the USA and PRC would be economic suicide for both countries.
     
  16. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Y-yeah, but...

    AMERCA?
     
  17. ShaneP

    ShaneP Ex-Mod Officio star 7 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Mar 26, 2001
    That wording conjures up images of Bono running on stage yelling "Americaaaah! Americaaaaah......and were running into the arms of America?". :p

    Okay continue on.

     
  18. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2000
    I think you should, though. America is not great. Neither is any other country. I consider this the first lesson Americans should be taught in order to accept their place in the world.
     
  19. Mr44

    Mr44 VIP star 6 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    May 21, 2002
    But Watto, your statement there is certainly a double edged sword, er...double edged expectation.

    For example, let's look to the recent earthquake in Haiti. Including the US Marine force, the US Navy carrier Carl Vinson, and the US Army civil affairs units, the US probably is providing upwards of 10,000 troops and untold millions of dollars to help with the effort. The US does this because as a whole, its more idealistic than other countries, and the rest of the world relies on it. If there is any country that has ties to Haiti, or at least owes Haiti something more, it's France. The French contribution? 3 transport planes and 100 troops. I don't fault France... to a point that is... but there's still a default mentality that dictates if the US doesn't do it, it won't get done. Isn't that part of what it means to be "great?"

    In fact, in a not-so-surprising statement, France just accused the US of "occupying Haiti" because the us is taking the lead there:

    US-HAITI

    Ah, America...damned if it does, damned if it doesn't. Of course, the reply to that article is that France can certainly step up its own commitment instead of rabbit punching the US's efforts from the sidelines without actually doing anything more itself...

    Or going back to prior debates, such as the perception of Gitmo, when it was pointed out that the UK, France, Germany, and Australia all have their own versions of Gitmo, and did so without question or guilt, the replies where always a variation of "But the US is like Superman, it can't have a Gitmo..." or "But the world expects Germany to have a detainment center, not the US..." As a result, the US was slammed more for probably doing something that's taken for granted elsewhere.

    and so on..

    Do the differences make sense? I guess I'm not disagreeing directly with your sentiment, but merely pointing out that "being great" just isn't a word, it's a series of expectations. Such expectation can't come from the US alone, it also has to be followed by a change, if any, from the attitudes and responsibilities from outside the country as well.
     
  20. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Most Americans I know are not only critical of the country, they hate it. However, that's because I grew up in Southern California. I hear that
    in the Midwest, people worship America.


    Really, though, Watto--you seem so bitter towards the country. I don't exactly understand why.
     
  21. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    I dunno if I'd call it bitter per se, more like a realist. Sometimes the sheer amount of raw nationalism that can come spewing out of people here is pretty disgusting. We're a country just like any other, we need to stop acting like we own the world.
     
  22. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    I know where he's from. So no.

    I don't think it's being a realist to be anti-american either. The amount of anti-americanism I hear on a daily basis is beginning to rival the praise. I think the truth lies somewhere in between, personally.

    I think people confuse realism with just pure pessimism--a lot.
     
  23. SuperWatto

    SuperWatto Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2000
    Great, as in vast: sure.
    Great, as in influential: you betcha.
    Great, as in morally top-notch: mmmmhm.
    Great, as in good with money: pffffrt.

    Know what I mean? Of course, that goes for any country - and I'll say it to anyone who calls their country 'great'.
    So the U.S. is... just a country. Ain't nothing special about it, except maybe that you taught me to speak like you.
     
  24. Asterix_of_Gaul

    Asterix_of_Gaul Jedi Master star 5

    Registered:
    Sep 13, 2007
    You're right in saying it's just a country--that's fair enough.

    It's the accomplishments made by people that are often attributed to the greatness of a nation. But more than that, a country is a great country when it gives individuals the opportunity to excel and succeed. Many historic movements/inventions have come out of the United States--a place where persons from every nation have come to live together (although unlike the tower of Babel :p there remain multiple languages and cultures in a "melting pot") --accomplishments from the Civil Rights movements, abolition of slavery, and putting a man on the moon are just a few. The way the government is designed is to provide for the individual in such a way that he/she can thrive in the US (and it used to be, more than in any other country--a much more limitless place i.e. the whole freedom thing).

    It is extremely special and it isn't special in the least. :p
     
  25. Ramza

    Ramza Administrator Emeritus star 9 VIP - Former Mod/RSA

    Registered:
    Jul 13, 2008
    Yeah, the abolition of slavery was really a great achievement for the US. Sure, Britain did it first, and sure, we had to fight a bloody five year Civil War to pull it off, but that's only because we're so awesome that we opted to have it be a difficult process followed by years of de facto and legal segregation and discrimination.

    The Civil Rights movement is hardly a testament to our greatness as a nation, since we had to have one to begin with. If the discriminatory laws and practices aren't in place to begin with, you don't need to protest them.

    Did we send someone to the moon? Yes. But anymore our space program is pretty pathetic, so any real pride we can take in that accomplishment rests solely in the rose-tinted nostalgic lens of the past.
     
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