The U.S. Census - Demographic Shifts and Redistricting

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by Jabbadabbado, Dec 21, 2010.

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  1. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Mar 19, 1999
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    309 million people. 10% growth over a decade, lowest growth rate in four decades. The Hispanic population has grown by 28% over the same period and now comprise 15% of the population. A quarter of all people age 20 and under are Hispanic.

    congressional seats

    Texas, 21% population growth, +4
    Florida, 18% population growth, +2
    Arizona, 9% population growth, +1
    Georgia +1
    Nevada, 35% population growth, +1
    South Carolina +1
    Utah +1
    Washington +1
    Illinois -1
    Iowa -1
    Louisiana -1
    Massachusetts -1
    Michigan -1
    Missouri -1
    New Jersey -1
    Pennsylvania -1
    New York -2
    Ohio -2

    According to Washington Post, "Republicans will control the redistricting process in eight of the states experiencing changes, while Democrats will control it in two."

    The U.S. Census and the Amazing Apportionment Machine - see your tax dollars at work...making a cheesy video you'd be embarrassed to find on YouTube.

    Exciting stuff.
    Jabbadabbado, Dec 21, 2010 at 10:44 AM
    #1

  2. Summer Dreamer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Oct 13, 2003
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    It looks like southern states have gained the most, with the growing Hispanic population probably being an important factor in that. Florida is probably going to be more important than Ohio.

    And all this means Marco Rubio has a very real chance to be the VP Republican nominee in 2012, and the presidential nominee in 2016.

    [image=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/44/ElectoralCollege2012.svg/800px-ElectoralCollege2012.svg.png]
    Summer Dreamer, Dec 21, 2010 at 4:51 PM
    #2

  3. shanerjedi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Mar 17, 2010
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    This might also show people migrating to the south and southwest as they near retirement.


    Ghost
    Florida is probably going to be more important than Ohio.

    When I was growing up in the 80's Florida was electorally more important than Ohio. Looks like people are getting out of the Great Lakes region.

    shanerjedi, Dec 21, 2010 at 5:43 PM
    #3

  4. MasterDillon Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Dec 28, 2010
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    This is very intresting news though it seems like a bad sign that the hispanic population is growing in the U.S. This means that too many illegal immigrants are getting away with living here. As for the population of the House going down that's good becasue the less polititions there are the less damage done to the U.S. Whatever party either Democrat, or Republican is corrupt. The Polititions serve the people they have forgotten this.
    MasterDillon, Dec 29, 2010 at 5:54 PM
    #4

  5. Darth_Omega Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 19, 2002
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    To be fair the USA always had an illegal immigration problem, just ask the Indians.
    Darth_Omega, Dec 30, 2010 at 5:44 AM
    #5

  6. LtNOWIS Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 19, 2005
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    From a historical perspective, it's simply amazing to see Florida have as many people as New York, or having Nevada or Utah have as many people as Iowa. There are people alive who remember when those states were mostly unpopulated wilderness. Politically, the effects will be pretty minor. Things will be slightly easier for the Republicans, but it's not a game-changer. About six electoral votes have shifted from Obama states to McCain states. It's not enough to make a difference, except in a really close election. The Congressional ramifications will be important for individuals, but will not really affect the big picture.

    Indians weren't US citizens until the 20th century. Colonists are not immigrants, nor are pioneers necessarily immigrants. The Indian "nation" never had a problem with too many people entering it, because it ended at the town limits of the settlers.

    LtNOWIS, Dec 30, 2010 at 8:58 PM
    #6

  7. GrandAdmiralPelleaon Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Oct 28, 2000
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    Does the U.S. Census actually count every illegal immigrant to begin with?
    GrandAdmiralPelleaon, Dec 31, 2010 at 2:32 AM
    #7

  8. Lowbacca_1977 Senate Mod

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    Jun 28, 2006
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    Yes, the US census at least attempts to count every person living in the country, be they citizen, legal resident, or illegal alien. I believe they're forbidden from asking any questions about immigration status.

    It is an issue that is cited as a possible explanation as to why the California congressional districts have such different vote counts, as the average number of votes cast for a congressional seat in California in the last election was around 182,000. However, if you look at who won, Democrat seats had an average of 164,000, and Republican seats had an average of 214,000 total votes cast.

    To give a baseline, there were two seats that were uncontested, both Republicans running uncontested, in the 20th and 21st districts. Running uncontested, one got 135,979 votes, the other got 175,663 votes. This is fewer total votes than in the 17 other seats Republicans won in California, which had total votes running from 178,855 to 304,229 votes. (If the average is done without the two uncontested seats, it's 221,000)

    However, we can also compare the Democrats to those same two benchmark uncontested seats, and the Democrats won 34 seats. Democrat district vote totals ranged from 89,444 votes to 261,152 (2 Republican districts were higher than all of them, but one of them is, effectively, only tied with the highest one here). Below the lower of the two benchmarks, 135,979 total votes, there are 12 Democrat-won districts. Below the higher of the two benchmarks, 175,663 total votes, there are 20 Democrat-won districts. Which means also that the Democrats only had 14 of 34 districts with totals over both uncontested races, but all 17 contested races a Republican won had vote totals greater than the two uncontested races.

    Additionally, 16 districts won by Republicans (out of 19) had more total votes than the average. 12 out of 34 districts won by Democrats had more total votes than the average.

    Since all districts are supposed to have the same number of people in them, one of the large things pointed at in California for some of those extremely low numbers is that several of those are areas with illegal immigrant populations that count for redistricting, but can't vote (parts of LA county, for example), leading to very small vote totals needed by some people to win. Although it's tricky to prove, both because data is normally done by county and not by congressional district, and because things like the Census won't ask questions about immigration status, so there's not much in the way of good data out there.
    Lowbacca_1977, Dec 31, 2010 at 4:10 PM
    #8

  9. DarthIktomi Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    May 11, 2009
    star 4
    Well, then we can look at how Americans have done things over the years. The German-American Bund were from the Axis country Americans didn't mistrust. Of course.
    DarthIktomi, Jan 3, 2011 at 12:21 PM
    #9
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