Senate The US Politics discussion

What I'm afraid of with this House bill failing is that they try a few other things (taxes, wall, infrastructure) and by the time they return to this both the House and Senate Republicans will be under mounting pressure from their base to sign onto anything, even something much worse, like a complete repeal and no replace and they cave to that. I won't rest easy until this trifecta is broken.

 

Chances are however that Trump and Congress will be too embroiled in the Russian scandal (or some other scandal of Trump's making, like say the numerous ethics ones) that they won't be able to get back to this any time soon. If Dems dig in on the Supreme Court and the budget, that may well be the case.

 

I'm not sure.

I don't know. I'll welcome the temporary setback if it fails (though remember the bank bailout failed the first time too, but eventually passed)... but I'm just not optimistic and won't be celebrating. At least not until this trifecta is broken.

 

If this bill fails, they won't touch healthcare again till 2019 at the earliest. No one wants to deal with this during an election year.

 

They could try again in the fall... and they may be under pressure to from their base for their own primary re-election chances.

Obama started healthcare reform in June 2009 and it wasn't resolved until 7 years ago tonight, in March 2010, while remaining the main topic and constantly worked-on in Congress all that time. 9 months.

 

The problem is they can't agree:

Conservatives want too much cut
Moderates want to keep the things people like
Governors want to keep the things their states like
They fear repeal with no replace

Because voters have made their displeasure known, they know this is a toxic issue. They'd rather focus on other things if this fails and then turn around an do what they do best: blame Democrats. That's how they will hold on to their seats. Problem for them is now voters know they have no plans and the one plan they did have was awful. Republicans are damned either way at the moment. So they are going to let this go so they can get other wins and save this one for the stump speeches.

 

But with mounting pressure from their base to do something to fulfill their promise, they might feel forced to revisit it, and be willing then to sign onto anything, just to say they did it. Even a complete repeal with no replace. Governors don't matter. And moderates are more likely to cave to their base than the conservatives to go against their base. The Tea Party base might not be out in full-swing at the moment because they're resting easy and thought a GOP trifecta would deliver for them. If as the months go on, nothing is done on this, they could get out like they did back in 2009/2010.

I hope not, but it's not impossible, and I won't be resting easy if it fails tomorrow.

 

The ACA didn't fail at one point. It was a long, drawn out process. In this case if the bill fails, R's are back to square one, with even less capital and credibility.

They won't come back to it, especially in the fall when it could spill over into 2018. The likely scenario is Trump screws with the ACA through the excuative branch and tries to put every screw up on the Democrats and Obama, of course this won't work, but that seems to be their plan B at the moment.

The Freedom caucus is safe no matter what, no one from the right is going to challenge them and the moderates aren't going to go for it because they want to keep their jobs.

 

Medicare is the third rail of politics. They can repeal Obamacare, but if that is perceived as touching the medicare expansion, expect a massive backlash. That's what led to this one ultimately. I honestly think Trump will be embroiled in so many other controversies by the time of midterms that healthcare will have become far less a priority than jobs and the economy may be.

 

Other bills have failed and then passed, like TARP.

Republicans won't necessarily go back to square one. But if they do, they'd probably just support blanket repeal with no replace, which is even worse... and more likely to win.

They could definitely come back to it if their base demands it, with their midterm chances in mind. The reason why the bill is failing the House is because of lack of conservative support. Moderates are more likely to cave than conservatives, in the Senate as well, especially if it's a vague (oh we promise to introduce a much better replacement... in a few years... let's repeal it first!) bill.


As for the Freedom Caucus, of course, I'm saying everyone else is most likely to cave to them, if they stay true to their conservatism.

Like in 2010, moderates could see that they'd lose unless they support something more conservative, if they aren't outright primaried they'd lose turnout in the GE.

There's many so-called "third rails." Which Trump has already touched and won.

And it's Medicaid expansion, not Medicare. Cuts to Medicaid are much more politically feasible. And that's already in this bill anyways, Republicans have already attached themselves to that.

Trump has so many scandals and controversies it's like he's vaccinated himself from them. We'll see. But I'm not holding my breath.

 

Blanket repeal will never pass.

Those 23 Republicans in districts that Clinton won aren't going to vote for a blanket repeal and neither are R's like Collins, Murkowski, and Heller in the senate. Republicans are cowards, but they also like to keep their jobs.

 

Moderates aren't that moderate anymore... and they're more likely to cave to their base, out of fear of being primaried or fear of lack of turnout during the general election. We could see resurgence of the Tea Party this year.

Like I said, I'm not celebrating if it fails tomorrow. I'm not resting easy until the trifecta is broken.

 

They may not be moderates anymore, but a lot of them are from districts/states that will be massively impacted by a blanket repeal. You can survive a primary, but taking away entitlements (especially from old people) makes you DOA in the general.

 

I had already forgotten its only been 2 months since this clown took office. It feels like a decade.

 

Indeed. In addition to Game's excellent points, I'd note that they already tried to do a straight repeal. We ended up with this monstrosity precisely because they realized it was politically undoable, and therefore decided to slap together a "replacement" in less than a month's time instead of accepting that maybe they should think about the policy.

 

The Making of Luke & Leia: A Star Wars Story.

 

^ I'd watch it.

Sent from the Kessel Run in twelve parsecs

 

Only if the voters are still alive and voting at the next election.

Not my idea either, a couple of years back:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...n-next-election-says-think-tank-a6680051.html

Now, the resulting PR firestorm did scorch it from the face of the political earth, but doubtless you have your own US versions of these people.

 

First, you are right. When I was writing this last night, I was exhausted and typed the wrong one. Second, I don't agree. His travel ban is essentially dead after the courts shut him down twice. His approval rating continues to plummet and he has no credibility with most Americans. He also lacks the political capital needed. He spent what little he had ramming his Cabinet picks through. Today is do or die for him. If Republicans capitulate and pass this bill, Trump can claim victory and use it to ram anything through the House. Whether it dies in the Senate is another story.

But, if he doesn't get the votes and it fails, he takes a YUGE hit. Bigly. And legislatively, everything he plans is now up in the air. Trump is bluffing and gambling on the idea the party will give in. Just a reminder his casinos went bankrupt. I don't see the Freedom Caucus giving in and I think many cower to the added pressure from the Kochs too.

 

I love starting the day with a big LOL


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/mo-brooks-blame-obama-health-care

 

Time crawls when we're not having fun.

 

Men debating removing maternity coverage.

 

removal of the 10 Essential Health Benefits (EHB) from the AHCA is a major blow, but it definitely rounds out the awfulness of the legislation in a way that Republicans will have to own.

 

One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet vis-a-vis "Trump's just gonna blame the Dems when it all blows up":

The Dems will be out campaigning that the GOP owns everything. Trump can try to deflect this, but when your popularity is sinking fast, blaming the other guy will be another epic fail in a long line of epic fails. Outside his base, the man is hated.

And the FBI still hasn't announced their findings on Russia yet. Unless it's "nothing to see here, move along", whatever capital Trump has left is going to cross the event horizon of his rapidly crashing Presidency the minute concrete evidence of collusion is announced.