Senate The UK Politics discussion

Them? Oh, they're all rampant homophobes who believe the floods in Somerset were a punishment from God for gay marriage laws.

 

I'd say the reason Leave (barely) won was a mixture of xenophobia (ranging from a mild "I don't like foreigners living off benefits, but Wojciech from across the road is a decent bloke, we welcome hardworking people like him" to and outright racism), ignorance, inability to put two and two together and see the connections (or lack thereof) between things (such as not realising that overcrowded GP surgeries and primary schools, and housing shortage, are not caused by immigrants or EU membership, but bad internal government policy and underfunding), and just point blank idiocy (such as the previously mentioned protest voters who didn't realised that unlike the general elections, in a referendum every vote counted). People who had legitimate grievances with the way EU operates were a minority. Heck, most people have no idea how EU actually works, much less being able to articulate it (cue large spike in UK people googling "what is EU?" AFTER the referendum).

Basically, people were given a vote on something that a vast majority of them had no clue about.

 

I think that's broadly accurate.

 

You would, you paranoid psychopath.

 

Xenophobia is not the same as racism. And what's with this absurd notion that Brexit represents cultural isolation?

 

Quite a transparently dishonest rhetorical approach you've got there.

You said: "Someone like Corbyn (who clearly wasn't passionate pro-Remain) is far more likely to vote for Brexit (as a trade protectionist, etc) than someone like, say, David Cameron."
I dispute the validity of your Murdoch media mantras. A greater proportion of Conservative voters chose to leave, therefore your claim that lefties were more likely to be isolationist nihilists is demonstrably false. Your claim that the graph (not a graph) shows anything about the PLP is simply wrong. While it's true that the PLP is more centrist than Corbyn, the data in that table describes 'How Britain Voted'. It is not concerned with the PLP.

39% of people who voted Tory in 2015 chose Remain, compared to Labour's 65%. The numbers are nearly symmetrical! Your claim is that people like Corbyn (those being Labour members) were more likely to vote Leave, yet the evidence does not support this. The evidence would also contradict the spin that Corbyn wasn't passionate enough - Moonface was forcefully passionate in his support for the EU and 61% of his voters rejected his message, so perhaps the focus on passion is a bit of a red herring.

Could you explain to me what national sovereignty is?

Any trade negotiations outside the EU framework are fantasies right now. We can't do them, and if we did they wouldn't be binding. Frankly, we should be weary of opportunistic vulture deals right now anyway.

If you don't think Leave = cultural and economic isolation, you might not understand what the EU actually is, or what the referendum was actually for. You obviously concede the point about political isolation, so you must realise... You must understand that the EU is a political, cultural and economic union, so voting to leave it is literally isolating yourself from it.

The pound is15% down since the Brexit result. Black Wednesday was a drop of 4.1%, just to put things in perspective. Berlin and Paris are primed to take London's place in technology and finance, companies across the UK are forming contingencies to move headquarters and/or production to Ireland or mainland Europe. The Polish government is furious at the increased levels of racism directed at their people living in Britain. We are increasingly seen as a laughing stock of undesirables. Show me some evidence that my argument is phony, please, I could do with cheering up.

 

V2, that's just false logic. Leaving is not isolation. It is a backwards step, but the economic interests are so entrenched that any likely exit deal and outcome will be in a deliciously ironic sense virtually indistinguishable from remaining.

 

From what I can see from the noise coming from Europe. They are not going to give us an easy ride.

There is a sense of protectionism that they need to follow to reduce the chances of others leaving, giving us an easy ride sends the wrong message.


Everything suggests that we will end up with virtually the same deal we have now. There may be a couple of concessions but nothing that the remain campaign actually wanted and on top of that we will still have to pay in a similar amount to now but will have no voice or veto on Europe's decisions.


All told leave appears to me to be a stupid stupid move.

 

This is painful. You seem to believe that people are in monolithic blocks on the left an the right. I'll put it simply.

I think someone like David Cameron (a moderate Tory) is within the 39% who chose to Remain, while someone who is left of Corbyn (or at least someone within the old unionist working class of the Labour Party) is within the 35% who chose to Leave from Labour. In fact I said that the majority of the Leave Vote was from the right, so your suggestion that I said "leftist are more likely to be isolationist" is just a strawman. I said they are more likely than moderate Tories.

Therefore it is silly of you to suggest that someone who expresses moderate Tory positions is more likely to be a Brexiter, than someone who express "Old Labour" positions.

David Cameron = 39%
Old Labour = 35%

 

Seems like prime time to invest in some Forge World kits then.

 

It helps if you stop treating him as if he were a grown up. There are so many hidden premises - many of which are downright bizarre - behind his arguments that you'll never get anywhere.

In other news, Tusk's hardline is going to make things interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37650077?mc_cid=302401e422&mc_eid=d630cd30c6

Obviously losing access to the single market would be a disaster despite all the facile 'but the French buy our chocolate cake and we buy their champagne' arguments; equally if there's not at least some compromise on freedom of movement it'll be a tough sell domestically. I'd assumed there would be some token compromise that basically allowed full freedom of movement but with some kind of token restrictions on paper that could be sold domestically as a 'win' on immigration.

With some of May's worst people involved in Brexit negotiations, I'm guessing we'll be stuck in a stalemate until the uncertainty hits people hard enough financially to make staying in the single market a priority over any immigration concerns. I hope May can then appoint some less awful people and we can hold onto the single market and freedom of movement - the actual 'good bits' of being in Europe.

I just hope it doesn't take too long for the cost of living increases to bite hard enough. I also hope the uncertainty doesn't drag out to the point where we lose foreign investment predicated on our being part of the single market. The Japanese are already impatient on that front.

 

I believe I characterised your argument in the context it was delivered, rather than the transparently twisted way you've twice revised it.

Both Con and Labour manifestos were pro-EU. The statistics demonstrate that Labour voters are more in favour of the EU than Tory voters. Your claim was "Someone like Corbyn (who clearly wasn't passionate pro-Remain) is far more likely to vote for Brexit (as a trade protectionist, etc) than someone like, say, David Cameron" but you offer no evidence to support this. Momentum (the group founded around the Corbyn leadership campaign, which one might reasonably imagine is full of people like Corbyn) is fiercely pro-Remain and organised the huge protests outside parliament on the day of the result.

But I see your argument has shifted from people "like Corbyn (who clearly wasn't passionate pro-Remain)" to people "left of Corbyn (or at least someone within the old unionist working class of the Labour Party)". Well that's progress, it's a less sweeping statement but still a baseless assertion. You seem to be applying some monolithic principles to your own logic, which centres around some intangible (and potentially unfalsifiable) "heart of the Labour working class".

I invite you to watch some old unionist working class leaders speaking at the recent Labour Party Conference and do your level best to find some anti-EU/pro-Leave sentiment.

Go on, shift again. Eventually we'll narrow it down to a statement that's true.

 

See?

I'll just pop a link to a nihilist, racist, isolationist, psychopathic, extreme right wing to the point of being in alignment with the very weirdest elements of UKIP rant from Dennis Skinner featured in the Morning Star here: https://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-e4af-Beast-of-Bolsover-Im-voting-out#.WAFD5fkrLIU

He even makes a valid point: the EU cannot be reformed. All but trivial changes in the mechanisms of the European Parliament are subject to referendum. Because of the history of losing referenda, changes are never made and the whole dysfunctional pantomime continues.

Tony Benn was also very vocal on the subject:


I disagree with most of what he says, but he's spot on about the Commission.

Bob Crow was also anti-EU, by the way.

The Labour party only really started being pro-EU in the 80s and only then as a means to keep Thatcher in check. Corbyn, a lifelong (and previously vocal) eurosceptic actually lost a lot of credibility with traditional old unionists when he took a pro-Remain stance.

But that doesn't fit with the Mekon conception of the world, so I guess I'm now a puppy murderer or pro-extermination of kindly grandmothers.

Edit - oh - and while I'm being unwise enough to respond in any way other than pointing and laughing - 35% of labour voters is far more than the traditional old unionist segment of the vote. Hence the logic comment. Although, let's face it, the same logic comment can apply to any Mekon post.

 

One last time...

Actually, no, I haven't changed it at all. I said moderate Tories are more likely to have voted Remain than the heart of the old Labour working class. This was in response to the fact that you were characterising moderate Tory positions as obviously a Brexiter position, while not noticing the irony that someone who expresses leftward Labour positions could also be labeled just as easily (and even moreso).

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-heartlands-give-huge-backing-8271074

(Not a great paper but whatever)

 

DarthPhilosopher, here's a map:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-36616028

Start looking at the heaviest remain areas.

Then look at the demographics of those regions, and their socio-economic indicators.

Ask V2 to comment.

 

I've quoted how your position has shifted, I've noted what points you've conceded. It's odd that you refuse to accept that what you are saying is changing. I welcome the changes, as you have been edging closer to something that can be tested as a true statement.

Your evidence, such as it is, offers a few stats about a few Labour constituencies/'heartlands', downplaying the fact that other safe Labour areas voted Remain. The article is only concerned with Labour and does not address the distribution of votes in tory 'heartlands', moderate or otherwise.

I reject the idea that tory moderates (excluding/including the working class) were more likely to be remainers than people like/to the left of/intangibly adjacent to Corbyn, and I'm not holding my breath for any supporting evidence. Age is a better predictor than political affiliation, and that makes sense to me because older people tend to have more traditional (racist) views.

 

The funny thing is, V2 has changed 'traditional heart of Labour' to 'Labour heartlands' (while - ironically - accusing others of moving the goalposts) but he's wrong on both counts.

The traditional heart of labour - as exemplified by guys like Dennis Skinner and the late Tony Benn - is deeply eurosceptic.

Labour heartlands - the North East, Yorkshire & the Humber, East & West Midlands, the North West - all emerged in favour of Leave, as can be seen from the maps & charts Ender Sai links to above.

Age cannot account for these regional differences. The proportion of the population over 65 in the SW and SE is greater than that in the areas mentioned above, yet a smaller proportion of the electorate in those areas voted Leave.

I think Mekon boy has shifted the goalposts in order to score a home goal. I wonder what he's going to do next? Throw a custard pie into his own face, or trip over his comedy oversized shoes?

I'll grab some popcorn and find out.

 

Trigger Warning



He looks worse than those seen around schools and playgrounds at the moment

 

How dose he look worse?

 

You just scored an own goal. I was commenting on the article in The Mirror which spoke of 'Labour heartlands' and assumed that DP linked the article in support of his 'traditional heart of Labour'/'heart of the Labour working class' argument, since that's what he said he was doing.

 

The others are clearly set up to be terrifying and are therefore immediately going to put people on edge.

This one looks "normal" as far as clowns go.



He's probably more of a killer than the ones terrorising schools at the moment.

 

If there's any suggestion that the working class was largely pro-remain, then that suggestion needs to be put to one side whilst it's originator is given a very patient beating with a newspaper.

It's pretty clear that the failure of the Remain camp to address the concerns of the working class whites in England - and I don't have a view, honestly, on their legitimacy or illegitimacy, I merely note that they have concerns - drove the working class towards populists in a trend which is observable everywhere at the moment.

That the working class is a core constituency - and formerly, was the core constituency of Labour - does mean in part the result of the vote was a failure in Labour messaging. Corbyn's been criticised by a wide range of observers and experts for being too tepid in his support, sending a very mixed message that ultimately didn't translate in people's minds to "vote remain".

V2 is taking a very limited definition to insulate the party from blame, and whilst it may be true that the party was operating on a pro-remain platform, the results indicate they didn't manage that especially well.

V2 knows this, I suspect. V2 is making sure the criticism isn't a broadside at the Labour brand, when nobody's intending it that way.

In the interests of assuming nobody here is a twit, can we agree that Labour and the Tories failed to deliver a Remain message that resonated enough to defeat the populists and Leave?

 

They really thought a Project Fear v2 could work. But Project Fear doesn't work against the sheer level of lying bullcrap deployed by Leave and their media allies, lying bullcrap the Leave camp abandoned as lies within hours of winning - I've seen some political nerve in my time but that takes the prize.

If Remain had been smart enough to campaign on a plaform of continued cheap holidays, booze and lower mobile costs, the vote might have been better.

Though, as the numerous cases of Brexit remorse demonstrate, people's attitude to their vote was nowhere near the seriousness it should have had. In a lot of cases an international vote became a proxy for national or even local issues people were pissed about. Issues that Leave managed to spin as being the fault of EU, even in regions that benefitted massively from EU funding. I'm not sure there's any rational way to combat that kind of emotional, irrationalism.

John Bishop was on the Last Leg last Friday and quipped there should have been a third option of "We're a bit pissed off" alongside Leave / Remain. He's got a point there.

As it is, it all looks to be pretty ****ed. Labour prefer to indulge their eternal fratricide, meanwhile the Tories are trying to out-Ukip Ukip. This can't end well.

 

Over here one column (or radio piece, I don't remember) mentioned that Corbyn was not the only one but lots of other Labour people acted as if they did not really need to show real support for the Remain side. They, like probably many other, did not really believe that Leave side would actually win.

Sounds good to me.

 

I'm sure he loves the idea of a Project Fear V-2, Ben.