Senate The UK Politics discussion

Yes. Really.

 

Thankfully guys - thankfully - the Labour party membership has swollen to 108% of the country.

 

A local Labour councillor in my ward has tweeted the "election isn't won already" because he has spoken to two non-Labour members, who won't vote Tory.

 

More likely he spoke to two "Me parents were Labour, me grandparents voted Labour, I'm a Labour person for life" types (whose swelling of the membership is significant in and of itself).

 

Newsnight Vox Pops in Barrow a few minutes ago an utter disaster for Labour

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/854457867470065664

Labour held this seat in 1997 with nearly a 15,000 majority. Last time Barrow was Con? During Maggie's landslide of 1983.

 

So DanielUK, if this election isn't connected to Brexit, is it a maneuver by May to solidify a mandate/legitimacy and/or wallop Labour?

 

I keep forgetting the Americans don't have a real system of government.

Declaring an election is a simple way to obtain or enforce a mandate from the electorate.

 

That's how politics works in the UK and most parliamentary democracies.

 

Here we go then, parliament has approved a general election (thus bringing an end to the fixed term partliament act 2011)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-39628713

General election 2017 - Game On!

 

My understanding the Tories are working on the basis of a majority between 120 - 135.

 

That's about where the latest "poll of polls" is;

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

 

Historically speaking too, polls seven weeks prior to a General Election have always overstated Labour support. Only once has the opposite has occurred.

 

George Osborne to quit as MP.
Ken Clarke to stand again. He had said he'd stand down in 2020.

 

Clarke is after the Speakership, from what I've been told.

 

Would there automatically be a new Speaker after the election or would that be a separate thing?

 

Speaker Bercow will have to be reaffirmed after the election (it's the first thing the new house will do) Usually this happens without any fuss and the existing speaker is reaffirmed unopposed.

Will be interesting to see whether Speaker B gets any "nooooooooooooooo's" or whether it's all "ayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyeeeeeeeeeeeeeee's"

 

It is very, very, very rare for Parliament to remove a Speaker after an election.

 

So if Ken has ambitions in that direction it isn't necessarily going to happen..

 

Yes, I'd say it's about 90% certain that Bercow will be returned unopposed.

The only reason I have about 10% of doubt is that

1. He is already VERY unpopular with the Tory Party.

2. When he stood for Speakership in 2009 he said he'd serve less than ten years. If he's about to renege on that it won't exactly endear him to his former Conservative colleagues.

But that said I'm expecting Speaker Bercow to go through into the new Parliament without any problem.

 

Depends, really.

He has better relations with May, then he did with Cameron.

 

John Bercow has said he will seek another term as Speaker.

 

Whispers Blair will campaign.....for the Liberal Democrats.

 

Would the Lib-Dems want him?

 

He'll turn London in their favour, especially since Labour wants to have a 50% rate on anyone earning over £70,000.