Senate The UK Politics discussion

The SNP have brought down a Labour government before.

It was a vote of no confidence, brought about by the SNP refusing to support a minority Labour government in revenge for a bust up over devolution, that collapsed James Callaghan's government in 1979 and ushered in Mrs Thatcher and 18 years of Tory Rule.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_vote_of_no_confidence_in_the_government_of_James_Callaghan

If the next Parliament is indeed a Labour minority, opinion will quickly change across the nation and Ed Miliband (already very unpopular for a LOTO) will quickly find himself in trouble.

In that situation the SNP will rapidly be able to call the shots, even though at the moment they are running this "lock the Tories out of Down St" spiel.

 

Read an interesting theory this morning, that, the only viable stable government option is a grand coalition between Tories and Labour. Can it happen?

Well, Grexit is on the cards and could take 10% off our GDP - might have no choice, but a period of national unity.

IMHO, though. Cameron will get a second term, but Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister by March. The question is not who will become Prime Minister, but how many will we have in the next year or two...

 

Surely if Miliband loses the election there's no chance he'll still be Labour leader by the time parliament reconvenes?

 

What goes in his favour is two things:

• SNP ruled out ever supporting a Tory govt. In other words, Miliband is guaranteed their support even without a supply and confidence deal.
• The number of centrist and left leaning MP's will out number those on the right.

There are a few moderate Tory MP's, who do Ed can rely on - so the numbers favour him.

 

If Lab + SNP can reach an accommodation on so called "confidence and supply" then Ed will survive and become PM.

Though I expect the government will be VERY unstable whatever the SNP is currently saying about teaming up with Labour to lock the Tories out.

It will be a war of attrition on the floor of the House of Commons day in and day out just to get the most minor legislation through.

If Cameron somehow clings on (maybe because Con's and Lib's do better than the polls predict) then Ed will be toast. He won't be able survive the meltdown the party is facing in Scotland at the hands of the SNP...

By the same token if Cameron/Conservatives don't remain in government after the election he (and Osborne) are finished.

What happens to the Conservative Party after defeat is an interesting question. Will they go through another period of tearing themselves apart? Or will they rally behind a new leader (probably Boris)?

You would think they will go through another bout of internal warfare but if Labour's position looks particularly precarious and another election within the next 12 months seems probable they might rally behind a new leader.

 

I've been arguing that a Labour/Con coalition is what we voted for last time. I don't see any good reason why it couldn't work, except for the tribalism within the two parties politicians and members. It would be a more honest reflection of how the public voted, there's so little difference between Labour and the Nasties, so bring it on.

 

I doubt it would get past negotiations on who becomes Prime Minister...

Of course we did see a "national government" comprising of Con/Lib and Lab in 1931. Split the Labour Party and Ramsay Mcdonald's name has been mud within the Labour party (for agreeing to the national government) ever since.

The other time we had Con and Lab round the Cabinet table together was for the unity government during WWII.

I can't see it happening this time, to be honest...

 

Oh I wouldn't bet on it happening in my lifetime, not without some sort of massive global turmoil to prompt it, and/or without some heavy constitutional reform and a decent alternative to fptp. I can see the big two getting smaller and smaller though.

 

I suspect in the end we'll have to move to a voting system that reflects multi-party politics and then we're likely to see splits within the various big parties into smaller parties which will then form coalitions.

I do think the era of Con/Lab duopoly is over (though if things go very badly for a Labour minority government I could see Boris achieving a majority, but I think Con/Lab majority governments will very much be the exception rather than norm this Century...)

 

Of course, two party politics is dead in the UK - but the question is what happens to the Conservative and Labour Party.

1) Conservative and Liberal Democrats could merge
2) Ed Miliband could get his wish and Labour renamed "Progressive Labour Party" (it was apart of his early party reform program)
3) Liberal Democrats are pretty much dead
4)UKIP will become something else, I think.

 

As soon as some mud sticks to Farrage, UKIP is over.
Don't count the LibDems out just yet...
Labour isn't in the same trouble as the rest this time round.
A permanent ConLib merger? Serious?

 

I've got a feeling we're nearing the end of Farage's political career. He's looked out of sorts all the way through this campaign and I suspect it's because he know's he won't win Thanet. I would expect him to resign as UKIP leader if he fail's to take his seat, probably allowing Carswell to take over as leader.

Carswell is a very intelligent, cerebral politician but he is not a leader and he'll turn into a disaster for UKIP, IMO...

 

Farage made the same mistake as the BNP - yes, the country is against high levels of immigration but they don't have a problem with immigrants per se. UKIP come across as opposing immigration on a personal level i.e "we just don't like those people" and I think this is why their poll support is falling. Vague racism, and the belief a politician supports it, is a political cancer. It will kill your career.

Plus, Farage publicly suggesting he would change anti-discrimination laws in this country is probably when the decline begin. It was a bizarre intervention.

 

And saying he'd prefer an insurance based health system. Both of those statements made on tape, but if anyone repeats them and attributes them to him, he calls them a liar. He and George Galloway should form a double act.

 

It doesn't help Farage that he also comes across as being in an advanced state of refreshment most of the time.

 

The NHS is the only aspect of the British welfare system that cannot be replaced (or even discussed changing) with an alternative - without the public rebelling on mass. Let's not forget, Cameron is the first Conservative leader to actually support the principle of free and universal, at the point of service. None of his predecessors would dare usher those words.

 

Pretty sure all his predecessors uttered those words...

Michael Howard: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/feb/09/conservatives.uk1
The values of the NHS - the chance to offer high quality care, free at the point of use and irrespective of the ability to pay - are enduring. But...

IDS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3166774.stm
Let me make it clear that NHS care will remain free at the point of use.

Hague: http://www.theguardian.com/society/2000/jan/19/health.politics
Mr Hague repeated that he did not wish to privatise the NHS or end the "free at the point of use" principle that has guided it for 50 years.

 

Yeah, but Cameron was the first who many felt was honest. Remember, Howard oversaw the most right wing Tory manifesto in 2005. If the Tories were a tad more moderate, Blair *might* have lost or been forced into coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

 

He's got a new bit on union flags and his incontinent cat (who is named Paul Nuttall of the UKIPS) which is very very good.

 

I don't know why this lady isn't standing for UKIP:

 

Poe's law?

 

She seems earnest enough, I hope she's a genius satirical performance artist but it's not very likely. This is NI, where those views are/were a lot more mainstream.

 

I could see me agreeing with some of those policies, especially the parts about disciplining children. Animals behave better than some of the ones I've seen in town. Also in favor of the EU withdrawal. I'd be against her proposals for gays and abortion though.