Senate The UK Politics discussion

Obviously the biggest danger for the Tories will be the referendum with Cameron and the Tory leadership + the grandees like Clarke and Hezza campaigning for "in" and the rest of the parliamentary party wanting out. Difficult to know how that play's after the referendum but we know Cameron's standing down in this Parliament anyway, so presumably once he's won the "in" vote he'll stand down and someone else will take over on a "healing and unifying" platform.

I think it's 50/50 whether the Tories can come back together after the referendum or fall apart, but this is Labour one and only hope of getting back in 2020, IMO.

 

Yeah, I have a feeling Europe is going to be nasty. Better to get it over with sooner than later, IMO. And even though Sturgeon and Cameron were bestest pals at No 10 this week I couldn't put it past Scotland and independence becoming an issue again as well.

 

Working on the assumption that "IN" will win, I wonder whether UKIP will get a boost like the SNP have enjoyed post Indy Ref?

Re, the Tory Party. I read a piece a while ago that said the seeds for the Lab/SDP split were sown during the 1975 EU referendum when the left campaigned for out and right campaigned for in. In won, but the two side's were never really reconciled and when Foot won the Labour leadership in 1981 it paved the way for the fracture that lead to the SDP split...

The Conservatives need to be VERY careful how they play this referendum, especially with UKIP waiting in the wings.

That said, I do think it's right that the we have an EU referendum. It's not something I would change my vote over but I'm looking forward to being consulted on this.

 

No, UKIP are not like the SNP. Referendum will destroy UKIP - if Britain votes to stay.

The party is trying to establish itself more than just an anti-EU party, but it cannot decide on domestic policy and split whether to chase Labor or Tory voters.

 

Personally I think the backlash against the SNP in England has been overstated, it's just a convenient face-saving narrative that the parties can all agree on.

As far as I can tell, SNP isn't a racist/xenophobic party - sure they encourage anti-English sentiment but they certainly weren't picking up support from the collapsed BNP as UKIP were. They're chasing racist toriy votes in the south and racist Labour votes in the north, and there isn't much difference between the mindset of both sets of voters, imo their allegiances are more tribal than ideological.

 

Sooooooooo...

Jeremy Corbyn 4 Lab?

 

True story - Jeremy's brother, Piers Corbyn:



Once threatened to sue a group of weather geeks for having the temerity to diss his forecast's on a weather forum...

The site owner is said forum was on the phone to him for like an hour! He was actually demanding people's names and addresses, LOL!

I don't know it Jeremy is as mad as Piers but it'd certainly be a laugh to find out while he's leading Lab!

 

So, I've heard that American politics lately have supposedly become more "parliamentary" in that we've now got two parties in almost complete opposition to one another. But whenever I hear or read about politics in the U.K., it seems to lack that...fiery quality that's always present in American politics. In fact it seems almost downright boring and humdrum. Is it just because I'm living in the States and therefore don't hear enough of what's going on there, or is there something qualitatively different about U.K. politics?

 

^^^^^

Not sure about this. Have you ever watched Prime Minister Questions? Basically consists of the Prime Minister and the Leader Of The Opposition hurling insults at each other for ten minutes, egged on by baying mob's on either side!

 

I think part of any difference that may be appreciated is the stakes. The British experience of the Great Recession is particularly instructive. The Conservatives didn't even win a clear majority, and came to power after successfully negotiating ascendancy in a hung Parliament. Afterwards, their austerity program was hugely controversial. It's still not even clear it was successful. Despite this, simply by merit of having "won"/being in charge, they were allowed to implement more or less their complete policy vision. Even though their mindset was parliamentary, their system was as well, so it allowed the continued smooth functioning of government in spite of sharply divergent visions for the country.

By contrast, the US has an increasingly parliamentary mindset despite a non-parliamentary system. Thus, even with a veto-proof majority, Obama was still barely able to pass healthcare reform, and what emerged was still heavily watered down even relative to the plans that were already devised with concessions and compromises in mind for more conservative legislators. When it's so hard to change course in terms of policy, everything takes on more existential tones, since it literaly is nigh impossible to reverse any major change once it has been made.

 

^^

This.

For whatever reason, our system has managed to cope well with 'extreme wings' - far left in the 80s within Labour and British Fascisti within the Tories during the 1920s. In Britain anyone aspiring to be Prime Minister has to win the centre ground by taking his or her party with them. In the United States, to get the nominee of a party, you have to win over the extreme and then attempt to gain the middle ground; which leads the politically insane able to dictate and influence campaigns.

It's not just the United States, French and Italy are rather similar too.

 

I think Corbyn's position got a lot stronger after the Welfare Bill vote this evening.

 

Corbyn's position getting stronger makes Labour's position weaker though. Labour looks like they are in a terrible mess right now and from here 2020 looks incredibly difficult to me.

 

Labour is so very very weak right now. The Tories are getting away with these Terrible cuts and Labour can't even take advantage. Pathetic.

 

makes you weep.


A lad I work with has admitted voting tory last time as he had no faith in Milliband. He's now seeing what Cameron and his ilk are doing and has apologised to us for helping put him in power.

 

Labour's big hope (their only hope I think) is that the Tories fall apart over Europe again. Also, it looks to me like Osborne and Boris are going to try and destroy each other when Cameron stands down... If that get's all wrapped up in the European referendum (Osborne for IN Boris leading OUT) then you could envisage the Tories tearing themselves apart again... But will be Labour be any position to capitlaise if they do?

 

Now I know the reputations of opinion polls is pretty much in the gutter after the election fiasco... But check this out;

http://news.sky.com/story/1523051/corbyn-gets-poll-boost-in-labour-leader-race

"Some 43% of Labour supporters would back left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn as the party's new leader, suggests a YouGov poll."

If Corbyn does become Lab leader (and I still really can't believe Labour would be mad enough to make him leader) I could actually see another SDP type split occurring from the Right of the party. If that happens then all bet's are off as to what happens next... Would they form another pact with what's left of the Liberal Democrats? Would they form their own party (National Democrats, etc...?) One thing would be certain, Labour would be in the wilderness for a generation.

Surely they will pull back from the brink and go for Cooper or Burnham?

 

Labor here is somewhat in crisis too.

I think the problem with Labour and Labor is relevance. There's no doubt a vibrant, engaged, and ideologically consistent centre left social democratic party is essential for any democracy. But Labor is so rooted in trades union politics and older class warfare lines that it fails to sell its message properly because it doesn't know what its message is. Blue collar/working class labels are largely irrelevant now since the manufacturing backbone of the labour movement has been outsourced abroad.

I personally think Labour/Labor should be scrapped and a new, non-union aligned left wing parties take their place.

 

I think the problem for Labour here as well is that they haven't reconciled what they are for and how they are relevant in an age when "there's no money left".

Do they present themselves as "anti-austerity" like the SNP? If so, "Middle England" won't vote for them.

Do they accept austerity and become Tory-Lite? If so, people might as well vote for the real thing (the Tories) and have done with it.

Do they go for some "wishy washy third way"? Well they tried that with Ed Miliband and annoyed everybody and pleased nobody.

Perhaps it's just the case that until the economy is properly recovered, the debt is payed down and the government has plenty of money to "redistribute" Labour is more or less irrelevant?

 

No. Labour's 'coalition' (or movement) is splitting.

The environmentalists are heading off to the Greens, traditional voters in Scotland and Wales are flooding to the nationalists parties and the Northern working classes are embracing UKIP. It is ideologically impossible for a new leader to win all those voting groups back. You simply can't; but targeting one set will result in Labour rapidly losing the rest.

IMHO, the party is heading for a split - far greater than the SDP moment.

 

If it makes for a stronger true Left party, then that is good.
In recent times there has been so little clear political difference between the parties that it doesn't matter who you vote for.
The big question now is how far Left-leaning is a new Labour party going to be (if it's still called Labour)? A socialist party wouldn't go down that well & isn't what we need.

 

Much as I intensely dislike the man, Tony Blair's analysis is dead right, IMO;

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33619645

However, his name is toxic within the Labour Party and I expect all this will do is further enhance Corbyn, to be honest...

 

for me Labour needs to be anti-austerity. they don't have a chance against the Tories if they don't. austerity is the reason for cuts in welfare that Labour should be standing up against. by failing to do, they just seem impotent. by agreeing with austerity, they don't seem like they have any ideas of their own. this whole 'tightening the belt' mantra from the Tories is a nonsense in a world where all countries are in debt, and there's more debt in the world than money. governments don't run like households. the left should be highlighting this fact, not toeing the line.

they're better off establishing a clear left, or even centre-left political viewpoint, and properly tackle the Tories on the areas where they are taking the piss, and do it well, than to meander along as it is currently doing.

 

Trouble is, Labour's internal polling is telling them that one of the biggest reason's they lost the election is because under Ed Miliband they were seen as "The welfare party". The party for the work-shy and the skivers. (I actually think the biggest reason they lost the election was because Ed Miliband never looked remotely like a plausible leader - This is backed up by the fact that Labour did have some quite popular policies - Such as the energy price freeze - But focus groups were consistently saying that voters just didn't believe Ed Miliband was the man to deliver these policies)

Going to the left will do nothing for Labour in terms of winning the 2020 election and being able to form the next government, IMO... Though it probably would shore up their core vote (which looks to be under some threat from UKIP in the north) and it might allow them to stage something of a recovery in Scotland?

Also, telling people that it's OK to run deficit's and debt (even though your probably correct within reason) is a VERY hard sell for Labour after when happened with the Crash.

Really, what happened to Labour's credibility in 2008 was similar to what happened to them after the Winter Of Discontent in 1979 and the ERM fiasco for the Tories in 1992.

Whichever way you look at it, Labour is in a terrible hole. They won't appear to middle England without being in the center and they probably won't appeal to Scottish voters without going left but if they do go left, watch out for the possibility of a split on the right of the party again.

Sooner or later the Conservatives will screw up, memories of 2008-2010 will fade and a plausible leader will re-emerge, all of which will allow the pendulum to swing back to Labour, but until then things look tough for Lab I think.

 

A strong left position will end up with a Tory government until 2025