Senate The US Politics discussion

That's what I thought. So you know what is at stake.

 

Not when, traditionally, most Presidents and Congresses continually vote to increase military spending. I'm saying I don't see a point in staying with NATO as a whole anymore. If Europe bands closer together, they can take care of themselves for the most part, and even if not in a formal alliance with the US anymore I'm sure the US would still come to their aid if they ever did face an existential threat in the future. One good thing about Trump has been that the US withdrawing from Europe has caused most of Europe (except the UK) to come closer together. Perhaps the US leaving NATO would force the EU to combine all its national militaries into one unified EU military. (Yes, I know European NATO countries =/= EU, just like I know Europe is composed of several countries... I'm trying to go straight to the point.)

The only countries I'm worried about if the US leaves NATO is Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. I don't think Romania, Slovakia, or Hungary would be in danger, nor any other NATO countries further to the west. It's just those 4 that I would worry about. We don't need to protect all of Europe anymore, Germany/France would never let Russia get past them. That's why I'm comfortable with the US leaving NATO, as long as we keep alliances with Poland and the Baltics. They have a troubled history with Russia, they've been subjugated by Russians in the past, and Russia still thinks they should belong to the Russian sphere of influence.

 

You're giving Trump a lot more credit than he's worthy of being given.

 

But Europe is not coming closer together. They are fracturing. Did you not see what just happened in Italy(yes, I know they change governments more often than the seasons change but still)? Populist and nationalist movements are popping up and gaining traction throughout Western Europe. That's why something like NATO is so important now. We need an multi-national alliance in Europe at a time when the EU is starting to fray. We need that institution more now than we needed it in the 90s and the early aughts.

 

I don't either, but China has shown a very long memory and remember slights very well; they also have largely muted any dissent about there ever existing anything other than a united China, and forcefully push the narrative abroad.

There's nothing to cede there, just an understanding to be made for the future - "we let you have your way there, this is the price you pay for our silence."

Of course, Russia can choose to go the Austrian way (we will surprise the World with our ungratefulness).

I do. I'm afraid I do...

I'd advise against underestimating Trump. He's not an uninformed man, as much as he likes to play on the theme; he's uncultured and brutal, but he's also ruthless and knows what he wants. And the state he rules was already ceding ground in Europe and reorienting towards China before he was handed the reins.

 

There's Brexit, which might or might not even happen. Overall, it seems like the European response to Trump is that they have to take matters into their own hands instead of always following the lead of the US. I think the US leaving NATO would lead to Europe banding closer together. How else has Europe been fracturing in the Trump years so far? Have any European countries seriously attempted to leave NATO?

 

Erm. We've had a reliable and constant stream of verified leaks form inside the Executive Branch for a good 18 months now. Senior advisers are open about their exasperation. It's not for nothing he was called an "[expletive] moron." He is, in fact, pretty decidedly uninformed.

 

What our countries have done is having been complacent. Only a single European country is capable of projecting force anywhere on the globe - at part-time capacity - and of full nuclear dissuasion; that is France, with a budget cut to the bone and equipment which is becoming largely obsolete and unuseable. There remains significant cooperation between France and the other country close to full projection and nuclear capabilities, the UK, which are better equipped but have a somewhat narrower focus.

Unfortunately, the two countries have significantly different foreign policies, ultimately putting a stop to any serious integration of both militaries. The same holds true, unfortunately, as a rule of the EU - there are nearly as many foreign policy orientations as there are member states, and foreign policy decisions require a unanimous decision...

Not that it matters all that much, though. Outside of the UK and France, Europe is a military non-factor.

 

You mentioned Europe coming closer together. That is the EU. Take a look at Italy. There is a growing north and south divide. Prior to NATO Europe suffered countless continental wars, two world wars, Franco-Prussian, etc. Pulling out of an alliance now would be reckless and substantially weaken Europe. It would also delight Putin and the pan-Russo nationalists. It would be giving them a massive gift.

 

The EU cannot even agree on a common defence policy because the French do not trust the Germans. Brexit is the least of the EU's problem; immigration is likely to tear the Schengen Area apart. A federal Europe is, currently, a dead idea and about as popular as sticking your dick in a bees nest.

 

One can dream.

 

I think it will happen, but not for a few decades and after the death of the EU.

 

Unfortunately that seems to be the case. And/or after another act of Sov...err...Russian aggression. Sorry @Lordban! but you know what they want.

 

Speaking of how much Putin wants the EU to disintegrate, did you see the story of Trump trying to influence Macron to leave the EU in exchange for a better trade deal? Weird that an American President would push for such a thing...

 

The Soviet Union was a force of good and defender of progressive politics.

 

Or weird that the French might actually do it on their own and only dodged Le Pen by settling on Macron last time. They might get Frexit on their own.

 

Yeah so that’s entirely irrelevant to the point that America’s president is trying to use American trade policy to give Putin what he wants in Europe.

 

Honestly, I expect NATO to go first (article 5 failing), and the EU a close second. I don't expect any kind of federal entity forming - too many differences already exist, and Russia, China and the USA are all going to be playing on them.

@DANNASUK

 

So our only hope lies in the US, Russia, or China breaking up first.

 

Again? What is this, 1991? 1861?

Makes me miss the Yeltsin days.

 

There will always be a China, Watto

 

No country lasts forever.

 

There won't always be a China. I give them 250 million years at the most - by that point the landmasses will be utterly unrecognizable

 

China Survivor: Outwit, Outplay, Outlast.

They think long game. Americans are still stuck on 2016 elections. We can't even stay current.

 

And if the US quit NATO, closed all its based in Western Europe, withdrew all its troops/equipment from Western Europe... how do you think France and the rest of Europe would react?

I feel countries like France and the UK would have never let their military decay to this point if they weren't overly-dependent on the US military.

Military cooperation/alliance doesn't need economic cooperation/union.

I ask you the same thing I ask Lordban above. If the US quit NATO, closed all its based in Western Europe, withdrew all its troops/equipment from Western Europe... how would Europe react. Because, as I said, I feel countries like France and the UK would have never let their military decay to this point if they weren't overly-dependent on the US military. Losing that benefactor would make them more reliant on each other, and less likely to split, especially since they're become so integrated in other ways (even if that were to end now).

I also ask... if the US did keep bases/troops in Poland and the Baltics, and remained in alliance with them, what exactly do you think Putin would be capable of doing? Do you really think he'd invade the Balkans and Greece, and then push into Germany/Switzerland/Italy? What exactly do you think would happen?

I direct you to my responses to ShaneP and Lordban above.