TOPIC FOR THE MONTH: The Kahli-fornia GREAT DEPRESSION

I present you the topic of the month (no time limit). The guidelines for our discussions are always the Jedi Council Forum code of conduct (mutual respect). Please note the following fluid, disputable, but most current BAD MATH facts in current circulation:

#1. The California State Deficit for the next fiscal year starting July 2010-2011, is somewhere around $20 Billion. That is roughly TWICE as bad as last budget year 2009-2010 (which was $8-$9 Billion, give or take a BILLION dollars). This coming California state budget battle will be the worst in our state?s history. Potential state layoffs approach 5000-10,000 state workers. The legislature refuses to address current numbers until June, after a number of state elections because several seats are contested that could be negatively impacted by deep cuts before the elections. We will likely get a state budget late, approaching August, and it will be a knock-down, drag-out fight to preserve programs that will be completely eliminated because there is NO money. Sacramento County will probably lay-off between 600-1000 workers, depending upon their final decision end of this June.

#2. The Sacramento County Deficit for the next fiscal year starting July 2010-2011, is somewhere in the vicinity of $166.5 Million, but can hit $209 Million factoring loss of matching federal and state funding for programs we cut. That is BEYOND TWICE as bad as our last budget year 2009-2010 (which was $80 Million, but county had to add another $14 Million this February to balance it until this July). Whatever the County decides, the State can and will (it did last year) scoop their big hand in and raid county and city coffers to balance the state budget. Last year they only took set aside redevelopment money. But much of the state and local fat was trimmed last year. Much of what remains is muscle (employees) and bone (infrastructure and programs). That means deeeeeeep cuts to services and layoffs.

#3. The most current housing market study shows that the top FOUR states with home foreclosures are holding approximately 70% of empty foreclosed homes OFF THE MLS listing market. Yes, California is at the top of that foreclosure list. This means when you shop for a home now, you are only seeing 30% of available homes. The 70% in hiding are part of what is now referred to as ?the shadow housing market?. I kid you not. Google it, and follow that trail. When the Sac Bee printed on the front page of the daily on April 21st, ?Sacramento-area foreclosures decline?, I am concerned that they are concealing SO MUCH OF THE ICEBERG that we are about to hit. How long can banks hold onto homes before the dam bursts and all of them are dumped on the market? I know it would be painful for them to just put them all on the market because all of our housing values would plummet, but fellow Californians, fellow Americans, this market manipulation is a very large part of what got us all into this mess in the first place!

#4. In 2008, 1.2 MILLION existing ?interest-only? financed homes were REFINANCED on the interest-only scheme for another 4 years. That means that in 2012, 1.2 MILLION interest-only loans will come due for full monthly payment. Translation: 1.2 million Californians will have to pay twice as much per month (or more?) to maintain their home loan. This is a giant foreclosure bubble that no-one wants to talk about, but it is a BIG storm on the horizon.

#5. This July, Sacramento County will be forced by law to reduce or devalue commercial property tax values by 50%. That means, Sacramento County will collect HALF the revenue it used to from local commercial property owners. Unknown fiscal impact, but probably significant deficit hit for the 2011-2012 Sacramento County fiscal year.

#6. Unemployment is currently 13.1% in Sacramento Region, and over 12% for California overall. After ALL the budget cuts this summer 2010 (starting in July for Sacramento County), I

I have been meaning to reply to this, because I really appreciate your drive to participate and stir up activity on the boards again, Ekim. I don't think there are any easy answers, but I think it will come down to this: someone will have to "pay" or "suffer" in order to "fix" the situation. Every program and ("special interest") group fights tooth and nail at the very thought of suffering cutbacks when we have to make difficult economic decisions like this. Everyone feels it will be the end of the world if "they" are chosen, and wonder why they're being "picked on". Yes, jobs are important, emergency services are important, various health and educational programs are important. But we also have to stop and consider this: we only have so much money to spend. We cannot "force" the rich or businesses to "pay up" and fix mistakes that may be their responsibility, and then it could be the fault of many others and/or simply unforeseen events that led to present circumstance. If we drive off businesses, the economy will tank. If we go after the poor or elderly or those who are not here through the correct means, we are demonized. If we squeeze the middle class, there will be no middle class left eventually. There is no easy or efficient answer, in part because of the above reasons, and in part because some people chose not to go out and educate themselves when making large financial decisions and now look for someone else to either take the blame or "save" them.

But I would also say this: we live in some of the most prosperous times for the entire human race. We enjoy, on the whole, more economic, financial, and social stability - not to mention security - of any other time or place on this planet. Despite all of the difficult things that may happen in the interim... everything in life is only for now.

Thanks for posting, Ekim!

-TJ

Hey everybody in the squadron: Please avert your eyes from the terrible, ugly local sheriff's race going on right not in our county. It is just ugly. Whoever gets elected will be the captain of a sinking ship, like taking over command of the Titanic immediately after she struck the iceberg.

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