Senate Trade War

Some questions: is a global trade war really happening?

If so, what are the economic and political consequences in the US, in North America, Europe and Asia.

Just off the top of my head:

Even a pre trade war of verbal threats can have economic and political consequences, eg tanking global financial markets, suppressing the economic activities of sectors that anticipate being affected by tariffs. A verbal pre trade war could impact economic growth, trade and unemployment.

A hot trade war definitely can have those kinds of consequences, and there have been any number of analyses on the short term economic impact.

There's also the danger of escalation when the trade war goes hot. Does it become a currency, investment, credit/debt war in addition to an escalating tariff and counter-tariff war?

Then there is of course the potential for undermining, possibly even destroying the WTO and the breakdown of diplomatic relations between and among nations if things get really ugly.

Domestic political consequences for the trade warriors if economic activity sours is another thing to look out for. In the US the Republicans who have been complacent about Trump because tax cuts can now think about what a trade war could mean for the record breaking net worth of the top .1%

 

The Senate is dead.

 

Probably a good idea. I know the US markets have been affected today by speculation. Not so much here in the UK - the FTSE 100 closed down around 27 points so not bad. Last time I looked the Dow was down over 300 points.
Also depending on what is chosen for tariffs, consumers may see higher prices on those items.

 

that would be great, thanks.

 

thank you!

 

I think it also needs an exclamation point.

Or would that make it sound like a Broadway musical?

 

And Russian.

 

With Trump that should be a pre-requisite

 

A trade war seems pretty clearly underway. We already have one complete round of tariffs, and from several countries counter-tariffs. Trump has moved on trying to implement counter-counter-tariffs. Seems like we’re well beyond the Rubicon.

I think the more pertinent question is whether several countries can’t associate to create leverage against the American position. You know, much as was planned against China in very limited fashion before Trump blew everything up.

 

I wonder how easy it is to win a trade war against a country like China that constitutionally is likely much more able to absorb public opposition arising from economic pain inflicted directly onto its citizens from an escalating tariff war. What amount of domestic economic distress in the form of unemployment and higher domestic prices would it take to get Xi Jinping ousted from power as opposed to, first, Republican congress being voted out, second, Trump being denied a second term, or third, domestic economic stress that might spark impeachment proceedings.

I've been scanning the Handelsblatt every morning for signs of this ever since the G7-1 moment.

 

Until and unless the Trade War hits Trump's base, I doubt anything of substance will happen.

That being said, I know that the rich, country-club Republicans in the Senate aren't too thrilled with what's going on. The problem is, Trump has now tied his personal sense of self-worth to the tariffs (much in the same way he has tied family separation to being 'tough' on illegal immigration). It's going to have to get pretty darn far out of control for the GOP to muscle up to him and demand a change (and even then, I'm skeptical they'll make any real effort to reign him in).

A trade war will likely bring on, if not a recession, a significant slow down in either growth or wage hikes. At the same, prices will rise. That's probably not good for the party in unified control of Washington. Which is why I'm surprised at the deafening silence from GOP leaders on Capitol Hill as this situation escalates.

 

Trumps base is either dumb/stupid or too rich to care

 

There are some very rich people in the USA and internationally currently crafting a bullet with his name on it.

If Trump thinks US President is the most powerful person he is going to find out at some point how wrong he is......... a fraction of a second before he enters the oblivion that is death.

 

The last thing anyone needs here is for Trump to be raised as some sort of martyr, it will set the US back decades to at least the 18th century in their thinking.


Trump needs to be called out as the racist he is and for his house of cards to come falling down his burnt orange features.
I wish him well in prison I really do

 

I agree it would be bad for the US if he was assassinated


But a trade wars going to make him some very powerful enemy's who would care little about the ensuring riots amoung us " little people".

 

Trade wars are hilarious when you consider:

a) The US built this house on foundations of everyone consuming exported American products, and
b) the idiot in the white house doesn't understand this.

 

Xi can also very justifiably say that America started it.