TripleB's Official 2006 Election Thread

LOL...boy, I sure hope the Dems are this quiet in '06 when the economy is debated.

C'mon guys, there's plenty in the article that can be (weakly) argued against my point.

 

I don't know nuthing bout birthin no babies...err bout the economy.\

EDIT: Which is sad, because my major was Communications concentrating in Economics. Of course, my detracters will tell you I know nothing bout the law either, so hey, I guess my parents just blew a few hundred grand for nothing!

 

It will be tough for Santorum in PA, but he could win.

However, he has offended many people, and Casey has name recognition and is a pro-life democrat, which the party needs more of. This will certainly help him in rural and conservative western pennsylvania.

Peace,

V-03

 

J-Rod

Well, it appears that Bush and I were right about the effect of the tax cuts.

Not really. And I've had this debate before. So don't assume silence as a sign of anything other than many of us don't have much free time.

One could easily argue that higher taxes would've reduced the deficit to a balanced budget, not to $333 billion. Or that various temporary tax breaks that expired the previous year resulted in a rise in revenues. And it is important to note that 'deficit reduction' is often based on projections so claiming that the deficit has been 'reduced' is not the best indicator. For example, I could project that the deficit would be $500 billion next year, and if it comes in at $300 billion, claim victory, although that would be disengenous considering it is still a large deficit. The main problems with the projections at the end of Clinton's term were that, as I believe that article indicates, they assumed the economy would continue at the same pace and naturally failed to consider unforseen events (i.e. 9/11).

Tax revenues generally increase regardless of the tax situation...

http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=1821&sequence=0#table1

...naturally other factors are involved when discussing why revenues change from year to year.

I'd say the best way to get rid of the deficit is to get rid of most, if not all, pork-barrell spending. If a state wants to build a new bus-stop or build a new museum, etcetera...let that state deal with it.

I could go on, but perhaps it is better left for a more appropriate thread.

Anyway, regarding the 2006 election, a lot depends on which seats are open in Congress. Anyone have a list? All I keep hearing about is the Democrats are targeting Santorum and the Republicans are targeting Bill Nelson in Florida.

My understanding is that Santorum will get a LOT of help from the RNC. Casey could indeed appeal to more conservative voters, and name recognition certainly helps. But has he had any exposure as a candidate up in PA?

 

One could easily argue that higher taxes would've reduced the deficit to a balanced budget, not to $333 billion. Or that various temporary tax breaks that expired the previous year resulted in a rise in revenues.

Still and all, it shows that tax cuts often result in increased tax revinue. Remember how everyone was saying during the election,"How are we gonna pay for the tax cut?"

Then AP and reuters "news" services claim that the rise may be from the stock market gains and not the tax cuts.

???

Isn't that what Bush said that the tax cuts would do? Icrease investment? Reduce the deficit? Now they are trying to spin it as if the tax cuts had nothing to do with these events that the tax cuts were intended to do!! But if they admit that, then they'll hafta admit that the tax cuts weren't "for the rich" but for the economy. Kinda what georgie said.

Hell, this would also be a good post for the bias in the media thread.

 

Here is how the four polls that came out this week address President Bush's approval ratings:

Poll Approve Disapprove Strongly Dis
Zogby 39 61 41
ABC 39 60 47
AP 37 59 42
CBS 35 57 NA

-Source
The Washington Post Poll also says a majority of Americans think Bush is not honest and trustworthy by 58%-40%.

What is the general opinion of the members of the Senate as to whether Bush will generate "negative coattails" in the Congressional elections? I'm thinking if these numbers are still the same in a year, then the Republicans in Congress are going to take a big hit.

 

Now for a moment in SENATE THREAD HISTORY!

Hey, anyone remember the old Senate Countdown to the election thread? It was great, it doubled as the social thread, and it was where everyone would come and post their thoughts about the election, or whatever. We'd have our regulars, but newbies would come, man, that thread lasted like a year or something! All our collective posts, it was like a daily e-mail check to see what neat info was going to be had, who was going to be the new nominee, how Bush was f-ing up this week...

Then, the dark times. DM felt the thread had run its course and wanted a new one. KW agreed, but I begged him to let the old thread stay open, so he did. But somehow, DM without Mod approval opened a new elections thread anyway, this time, without the countdown theme. Chief Justice Kimball sanctioned the action even though the initial post was against forum policy. The countdown thread was closed, election day would never come for that thread.

I appealed the decision vigorously. The Chief denied my appeals without a hearing. I then launched a PM campaign against the decision, recruiting my old nemesis turned compatriot TripleB. People throughout the forum PM'd the chief asking him to re-open the thread, to let the countdown serve its purpose. But I was betrayed, as someone had alerted the chief to my private message campaign.

I was informed that my actions constituted a breach of forum policy in that I was spamming through PM. I recieved a cease and desist order, and I faithfully complied with the letter of its law, if not the spirit. I continued to make my opposition known in various ways, such as posting the senate procedures that should have kept my thread open, in various threads and in my sig. But the Chief had had enough, the tone of his posts became increasingly angry and hostile. He sent newly appoitned mod Vaderize03 to make his bones by banning me for earlier discontinued PM campaign. It was to send a message, "this isn't about left or right, you are out of line and you must stand down."

And stand down I did. The thread was lost, the dream was over.

This moment in Senate Thread History has been brought to you by
Obi-wan McCartney!

 

Good old TripleB. This place seems to have gone down teh crapper except for a few good oldies.

 

Do I count as one of them?

.

Peace,

Vf-03

 

This thread should be metaphorically heating up soon...

The elections are coming up fast, and the GOP is in a weak position to retain their gains in Congress.

Should be interesting to watch.

If the Dems take over, I wonder if they will have any better control over the budget?

I have my doubts that either party is really capable of that, but I won't count it out.

 

It's anyone's guess at this point. Too early. I bet it's another horse race. But if Bush loses either wing of Congress, he's going to be a very lame duck indeed.

 

Obviously it isn't '06 yet (close enough), but there is an important governor's race in Virgina today.

Bush skipped over the tornado disaster to fly in to support the Republican candidate there. Not a good move for the President, I don't think.

EDIT: I almost forgot about the New Jersey governor's race that's happening today, too.

Both of these races will have larger implications in 2006 for the respective parties.

 

NJ will go to Corzine.

The senate has a chance of changing hands, but not the house.

Neither party has any real stars. If there are any shifts in power, it will be the result of being fed up with the GOP and not necessarily any better positions from the dems.

Peace,

V-03

 

for now i say we make it a temp 2005 off year elections thread since that is happening today. it only has to be for today and untill all 2005 elections are in. so i will start off with my predictions.

kaine (d) wins in va but only by a few percentage points
bolling (r) wins the lt gov in va
mcdonnell (r) wins the ag in va
corzine (d) wins in nj
bloomburg (r) wins big in nyc
issues 1, 2, 6, and 7 will pass in ohio
issues 3, 4, and 5 in ohio will be to close to call right now
jackson wins the mayor's race in cleveland
dunno about the ca props or some of the other things

overall sucessful guesses: (? out of 13 for a ?% correct)

edit: fixed it up a bit
edit 2: added the fraction to see how i did overall

 

Democrats have won the governor's mansion in both VA and NJ. I knew Bush wouldn't help the GOP candidate in VA, as his coattails are shorter than a Jawa right now.

Texas has passed a ban on same-sex marriage by amending their State Constitution (I comment further on that in the other thread).

 

these are the results of my predictions:

kaine (d) wins in va but only by a few percentage points (correct guess)
bolling (r) wins the lt gov in va (correct guess)
mcdonnell (r) wins the ag in va (correct guess barring some type of recount/runoff)
corzine (d) wins in nj (correct)
bloomburg (r) wins big in nyc (correct)
issues 1, 2, 6, and 7 will pass in ohio (was right about all but issue 2)
issues 3, 4, and 5 in ohio will be to close to call right now (they turn out failing)
jackson wins the mayor's race in cleveland (correct)
dunno about the ca props or some of the other things (no comment)

overall sucessful guesses: (9 out of 13 for 69% correct)

note that issues 3, 4, and 5 will be recorded as wrong guesses

not bad on my part...i should have made a definitave guess on issues 3, 4, and 5 though. any news on the california props? btw the va legislature is 39 democrats - 57 republicans - 3 independents - 1 unaffiliated. (the results from the election that is)

how much of a change is that overall?

 

I?m fairly certain here in California all of Arnold?s initiatives failed.

For those who are dying to know, here?s how I voted yesterday (my wife voted the same except for the teacher initiative, I think ):

I voted FOR capping state spending.

I voted AGAINST the union/contributions initiative.

I voted FOR alerting parents if a minor is having an abortion.

I voted FOR the ?Democrat? prescription-drug proposal, and AGAINST Arnold?s.

I voted FOR extending teacher probation to five years.

 

alerting parents to minor's abortion? Bedamns, that's pretty freakishly radically rush limbaugh sean hannity for right of you!

 

No, parental notification isn't "freakish Limbaugh, Hannity" of him. It's entirely reasonable and sensible, which is why it didn't pass in Kalifornication.

 

I know, I was kidding, that's why the smiley is me smiling, but then getting punched in teh face by DS.

Did the california law have an exception for if the child was afraid of abuse?

 

I dunno OWM, but I tend to think that notifying parents of such an important decision is a good thing, and that ?fear of child abuse? is fairly arbitrary and is wrong under any circumstance.

Among the issues that I disagree with social conservatives, abortion is probably the one I understand the most. We should encourage adoption, teach abstinence, and safe sex practices. But in the end, IMO the decision should be left up to the woman, her doctor, and her G-d (provided she believes in one).

 

I voted AGAINST the union/contributions initiative.

Hey DS77! How ya doin' bro?

Do you really think it is fair that the unions can use your money to champion any cause they believe in?

 

Kilgore killed his own campaign more than anything. He ignored large portions of his base and took them for granted, so they just stayed home.

It is important to note, though, that Virginia was not the great success for Democrats that some people are claiming. While Kaine won for Governor, the Republicans took both the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races (although the AG race may face a recount).

Kimball Kinnison

 

No, parental notification isn't "freakish Limbaugh, Hannity" of him. It's entirely reasonable and sensible, which is why it didn't pass in Kalifornication.

This kind of vitriol is not conductive to the goals of the forum. You're more than welcome to make a point, but you don't have to attack others to do so.

There is not a single situation in the world which will be improved if the state forces a minor to notify her parents if and when she decides to get an abortion. If she doesn't think she can tell them, she's probably right, since she knows what her relationship with her parents is like better than the state does. The idea that government intervention could be anything other than harmful (unless it's to help pay for the abortion, which is something else we need to work on) in this context is sheer lunacy.

And, yes, AFAIK, minors could petition the court for special circumstances blah blah blah, but the minors most in need of abortion services without parental involvement are almost certain to be the ones least likely to be able to navigate the bureaucracy of the court system. That's so unlikely to be helpful that it's laughable.

And, of course, the bottom line is that abortion is a private decision to be made by the pregnant woman and the pregnant woman only, regardless of how old she is.

Even though I wasn't able to vote against 73 myself, I'm proud to be a Californian today as my fellow citizens stood up for common sense and defended the right to choose.

 

This kind of vitriol is not conductive to the goals of the forum. You're more than welcome to make a point, but you don't have to attack others to do so.

I'm sorry, Mr44, but that's BS. This is the post that I'm responding to:

No, parental notification isn't "freakish Limbaugh, Hannity" of him. It's entirely reasonable and sensible, which is why it didn't pass in Kalifornication.

ShaneP's post was a blanket attack on the intelligence and rationality of Californians. Why can ShaneP insult Californians without getting warned from the mods, but I say something in response and you're on me like white on rice?

A reasonable person might be led to suspect that it's because his post was anti-abortion and mine was pro-choice. As usual, the (overall) conservative bias of the Senate mods rears its ugly head.