US Elections 2008 - Speculation and Analysis (Future Election Discussion)

Discussion in 'Archive: The Senate Floor' started by Darth Mischievous, Mar 4, 2006.

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  1. Espaldapalabras Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 25, 2005
    star 5
    I was working on the Dave Buhler for Mayor campaign. His very creative website

    And we WAS the Doer, and lost only because he wasn't the Democrat. We lost about 35% to 65%, which is less than we would have hoped, but at least we didn't spend 600k and only get 8%, with a total of about $250 per vote like the guy we trounced in the primary.

    Trib story on race

    Really we knew this was the likely outcome since the day after the primary. We always knew we could beat the other two more progressive candidates, but Ralph Becker really wasn't a force until a few weeks before the primary when he just had a huge surge, and he was enough of a change in tone to hold onto the left leaning independent 1/3 of the population. Dave had so much class in loosing, my tendency is to just go down in a ball of fire. He took us staff out to lunch, and is just such a great guy that it is shame he didn't make it. I am happy that Ralph Becker will be MUCH better than the current mayor Rocky Anderson, and hope he learns how to be a doer instead of a dreamer soon.
  2. Kudzu Jedi Grand Master

    Member Since:
    Jun 18, 2005
    star 5
    Proof that Robertson's brand of right-wing Christianity has no clothes.
  3. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    What do you mean by that?

    It seems to be a sense of prioritization rather than extremism. Although, I can see how that could also be viewed as a lack of principles, in some sense, depending on the causes compromised.
  4. Darth Mischievous Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Oct 12, 1999
    star 6
    If the hard right-wing evangelical base of the GOP splits off to have a 3rd party candidate if Rudy is nominated, then they're handing victory in 2008 to the Democrats for sure.

    I have little to no respect for Pat Robertson or televangelist ilk, and the evangelical wing has split their endorsements between the top 3 candidates. It makes little difference to me who they endorse, but to their base it might.

    It also depends on who the Democratic nominee is.

  5. Ender Sai Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Feb 18, 2001
    star 9
    `

    What, and Ron Lol's ideas are anything more than hilarity? o_O

    I'm no fan of Rudy or Robertson, but still...

    ES
  6. yankee8255 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    May 31, 2005
    star 6
    I voted for Giuliani 3 times for mayor (remember, the first time he ran, he lost to Dinkins:rolleyes:), and would have voted for him a fourth time if he could have run, or if he hadn't dropped out of the Senate race vs. Hillary. But I really have my doubts about him as President. He can be a flat out jerk, and in a bad way. That was actually a good thing when he was mayor, NY needed someone to come in and clean house. But the next President needs to be more of a consensus builder and centrist. Guíuliani is a moderate in terms of some of his positions, but he couldn't care less about consensus. He's totally a "my way or the highway" guy, and that's a bit too much like "You're either with us or against us."
  7. ShaneP Ex-Mod Officio

    Member Since:
    Mar 26, 2001
    star 6
    Esp, you did face an uphill battle in SLC. They have a tradition of democratic mayors(Wilson,Coridini,Anderson, etc). But, you gave it your best effort and that counts for something.
  8. Jedi Merkurian Episode VII Thread-Reaper and Rumor Naysayer

    Manager
    Member Since:
    May 25, 2000
    star 6
    [tongue-in-cheek]"He may be an adulterous, two-timin' gay-lover, but at least he ain't Mormon!"[/tongue-in-cheek]
  9. DeathStar1977 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 31, 2003
    star 4
    Esp

    Yes, based on your links the gentleman that you worked for seems like a genuinely decent fellow. Hopefully the lesson learned isn't that he needs to run a more 'negative' campaign next time to win. He probably would've lost anyway due to, as you stated, demographic issues.

    'Negative' campaigning is for Presidential campaigns anyway. [face_mischief]
  10. Mr44 VIP

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2002
    star 6
    It's not negative campaigning, it's "reverse positive focusing.."
  11. sellars1996 Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jun 19, 2002
    star 3
    I suspect Pat Robertson could not endorse Romney because of his Mormonism. That is the only reason I can conceive why he would endorse Giuliani, unless he was being pragmatic and believed that only Giuliani had the best chance next year. Otherwise, he would have given Romney or Huckabee the endorsement.

    Robertson's endorsement probably will not change things much. It may get more evangelicals to look at Giuliani, so it does not hurt in the primary. But it is about like Rick Perry endorsing Giuliani here in Texas ... we shrug, think, "That's nice," and move on.

    At this point, if I had to vote, I would probably vote for Romney of the top tier guys ... otherwise, I would vote for Huckabee or Duncan Hunter. But I am not really excited about any of these candidates. If I was thinking of voting for a Democrat ... and I have done so only three times in my life, and each time, though it was for a conservative (e.g., Lloyd Bentsen), I felt like I was cheating on my spouse ... I would give Bill Richardson a good look. But the chances of me voting Democratic next fall are about as great as those of Darth Mischievous voting for Hillary.

    I already have election ennui and I have a whole 'nother year to endure of this mess. Yuck.
  12. Espaldapalabras Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Aug 25, 2005
    star 5
    Well the problem was that it was very difficult for us to distinguish ourselves from our opponent. He was also a "nice guy" and we had to show how we were different. I don't think it was "negative," we simply pointed out problems with his record of service. We never said anything bad about him personally, but the truth is that he wasn't able to get much done in his years in the legislature. Really if you look back to the primary, we pretty much knew this was going to happen. The other candidates endorsed Becker. The city is 1/3 active Mormon/GOP, 1/3 leftish independent, and 1/3 hard core Mormon hating super liberals. We were able to hold onto our base, but as long as the Dems put out a decent candidate the odds were stacked against us. Really the plan for Dave winning was for Jenny Wilson, the former frontrunner and Dem, to make it out of the primary with the GOP base forcing through Dave. Then we would have been able to change the demographics a bit because Jenny Wilson was clearly not experienced enough. We were able to beat her, but Ralph snuck up on everyone and just got a huge wave of momentum at the end of the primary that we were never really able to break through. The director of the University of Utah's Political Science Department said that we won all of the debates (which we did) but that it didn't really change anybody's minds because Ralph wasn't that bad of a candidate.

    We never got nasty about Ralph, they didn't like us calling him out on the issues, but there wasn't really any huge hosility between either the candidates or the campaign staff. The real ugliness came more from Ralph supports that hate every Mormon with a zeal greater than most Islamic fundamentalists. Back in the primary there was real tension between our campaign and that of Keith Christensen. He already disliked Dave, and when he spent $600,000 for a something like 1,500 votes, they were pretty angry with us.

    Anyways I have learned a lot from the experience, and am just glad to get to know such a great guy.
  13. FIDoAlmighty Jedi Youngling

    Member Since:
    Aug 31, 2006
    star 1
    Looks like portions of Ron Paul's 4 million dollars worth of donations were made using stolen credit cards.

    Haw haw!
  14. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    And the point? Its seeming to be $3000 out of 4.2 million..... thats extremely small.
  15. Jediflyer Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Dec 5, 2001
    star 5
    Like .007%

  16. Kimball_Kinnison Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Oct 28, 2001
    star 6
    Is that supposed to prove that James Bond supports Ron Paul?

    Kimball Kinnison
  17. DeathStar1977 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 31, 2003
    star 4
    Mr44

    [face_laugh]

    Remember, its negative campaigning when the other guy does it...its pointing out differences when you or I do it. ;)

    Sellars

    I hear ya...polls say that Democrats are satisfied with their top candidates, but I don't see it. At this point, I'd settle for someone who has their heart in the right place. I worry that Hillary is not going to play well with others, that Edwards is just BS, and I like what Obama has to say, but he doesn't have the track record to back it up.

    IMO out of the Democrats, Biden or Richardson would be the best President. But despite the fact that they are the only candidates (to my knowledge) that I or members of my family have given support/money to, it seems like a longshot that either will win the nomination.

    If I was thinking of voting for a Democrat ... and I have done so only three times in my life, and each time, though it was for a conservative (e.g., Lloyd Bentsen), I felt like I was cheating on my spouse

    Well, its hard not to like Bentsen. I've voted for a few Republicans (i.e. Arnold), and for more than a few ballot initiatives that were supported by the Republican party (parental notification for abortion, certain tax/bond issues). But on a national level, voting Republican, well, its just too hard to think that I am voting with Newt Gingrich. [face_sick] [face_mischief]
  18. sellars1996 Jedi Knight

    Member Since:
    Jun 19, 2002
    star 3
    Agreed, DS1977, agreed. I can vote for Lloyd Bentsen, conservative Democrat judges or local officials who happen to be Democrat ... but I can distance them from Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Teddy Kennedy, etc. because filling potholes effectively is something that one must be neither red nor blue to do effectively. It seems like the higher up the chain you go, the more the disconnect exists.

    My personal thought is that most politicians get power hungry when they leave their constituents and forget why we sent them to Washington. The shorter leash in state and local government keeps the politicos more honest and from wandering too far astray.
  19. Lowbacca_1977 Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Jun 28, 2006
    star 6
    To be fair, Arnold's a RINO
  20. DeathStar1977 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 31, 2003
    star 4
    Probably, but to be fair (to me [face_mischief]) I wasn't trying to give the impression that I am completely bipartisan, rather that I am just not completely unreasonable. ;)

    sellars

    Yea, local leaders tend to attend to local issues better, perhaps naturally. Its when people seek higher office that they have trouble.

    And yes, I know Ted Kennedy is the boogeyman to many. But he is known to get along and work well with many Republicans and is considered a top legislator. I can't remember if it was Richard Reeves bio on Reagan where it was stated that Ted and Ronald got along very well until the Bork nomination. Reagan was said to have taken Ted's harsh attack on Bork personally.

    Anyway, I think a part of the Democrats problem is that the leadership of Pelosi and Reid have been lackluster, particularly Reid. IMO the Democrats would be better served if Rahm Emanuel was in charge in the house and Feingold or Biden were in charge in the Senate. I also wouldn't mind seeing Jim Webb in a leadership position.

  21. Mr44 VIP

    Member Since:
    May 21, 2002
    star 6
    and Feingold or Biden were in charge in the Senate. I also wouldn't mind seeing Jim Webb in a leadership position.

    Biden, yes... But Feingold? And what, embrace anarchy? [face_worried][face_whistling]

    (to e-Feingold) You sir, are no Lloyd Bensten....
  22. DeathStar1977 Jedi Master

    Member Since:
    Jan 31, 2003
    star 4
    I know, Emanuel + Feingold = Too Jewish ;)

    Seriously though, Senator Feingold seems honest and candid, willing to work with others yet willing to vote and voice his principles whether or not its a popular position.
  23. ShaneP Ex-Mod Officio

    Member Since:
    Mar 26, 2001
    star 6
    FIDOalmighty
    Looks like portions of Ron Paul's 4 million dollars worth of donations were made using stolen credit cards.

    Haw haw!


    He still has a long way to go to catch up with Hillary's shady fundraising. ;)
  24. Darth Mischievous Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Oct 12, 1999
    star 6
    Now, Hillary's campaign has been caught planting questions during a Q&A session.

    Scripted. Triangulating. Is it really surpising?

    After that debacle at the debate, she's making more mistakes. Her opponents are not making the most out of these, as they should be more forceful against the potent Clinton machine... that will run over them.

    Obama is not coming off forcefully enough, and he's not capitalizing on these errors. Edwards is more forceful, but he's burnt much of his cred with his hypocrisy and his phonyness.

    On the GOP side, McCain and Giuliani are at it a bit. Giuliani with former relationship with Kerik, which he's handling quite well politically. He also answered McCain's criticism with acceptance of all of McCain's earlier praise for him. I wouldn't count McCain out until the end though... even if his prospects are grim.

    I'm not comfortable with Romney, and I don't believe he carries any veracity in his position taking. I'm also not comfortable with Huckabee... he's a nice guy, but not certain evolution is a natural reality? It shouldn't matter if he's a minister or not in that regard.

    If Romney ends up the GOP nominee, I may just sit it out... unless Hillary is nominated. Then, I'll just pinch my nose and probably vote for him.

    As has been said here, he's more Kerry than Kerry.
  25. Vaderize03 Manager Emeritus

    Member Since:
    Oct 25, 1999
    star 5
    Who cares, I mean, honestly?

    It's only a getting play because it's Hillary Clinton. The actual story is that someone in her staff suggested planting a question regarding her energy policy, but it didn't really matter because she picks audience members at random to ask questions from.

    This goes back to the idea of perception. The media is playing up the theme that she is fake, since right now, she is the one to beat and everyone is attacking her. It was in the same mold as going after Gore for his comments on the internet and Kerry's fetish with watersailing.

    I for one, am sick of it. How about debating the substance of her platform? I really don't care for criticism because, frankly, no-one is perfect. Lest I even begin to discuss the GOP front-runners? How about the current administration?

    The politics of our era are so oversaturating that they risk turning people off in a serious way for good. The election is a year off and already, I'm totally sick of it. I can't imagine another year of this.

    Peace,

    V-03
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