What did the Emperor know and when did he know it?

"Everything that has transpired has done so according to my design!"
Or at least that's what Emperor Palpatine says to Luke Skywalker in Return Of The Jedi.
We all know now after watching the Prequel Trilogy what a diabolical mastermind Palpatine (a.k.a. Darth Sidious) was, but how about after the events of the PT?
Surely Palpatine had some inkling that some sort of insurrection or rebellion was waiting in the wings, and that his accumulation of more and more "emergency powers" probably started to look increasingly suspect over time. Did the Emperor anticipate something like the Rebellion created by Senators Bail Organa and Mon Mothma. Was there a slowly growing awareness of Bail's involvement in Imperial circles, and was this what ultimately led to the destruction of Alderaan in A New Hope?
I'm starting to think that the Emperor had to be aware of a lot more things than he let on. For example, Bail's aiding in Yoda's getaway from Coruscant in Revenge Of The Sith could not possibly have gone completely unnoticed. Surely there were security cameras or something in the area!
I'm starting to think that Palpatine's grand masterplan took into account the possibility of the Rebellion, and that he deliberately allowed this to happen. Why, you ask? So that when he sprang his ultimate trap on Endor, he would be able to crush the Rebellion so thoroughly that it would serve as a lesson to those who would be tempted to cross him or the Galactic Empire in the future!
Of course, there were a couple of things that really threw a spanner into the works. First of all, the Ewoks helped the Rebels take out "an entire legion of his best troops!" Second, he was far too confident in his ability to tempt Luke to join the Dark Side just as easily as he did his father Anakin. Third, he never took into account the possibility of Anakin/Vader turning back to the Light, sneaking up behind him, and throwing him down the reactor shaft!
I digress, however...
The questions I wish to pose are: How much did the Emperor know about the Rebellion? At what point did he become aware that something was up? Did he take this into account, and devise the ultimate trap on Endor? And if so, was this in order to pre-emptively deal with the possible threat of future insurrections once and for all?

 

It's clear in the deleted office scene that he is onto them. Though most likely he suspected prior to ROTS.

PADME: You are pursuing a diplomatic solution to the war, then.
PALPATINE: You must trust me to do the right things, Senator. That is why I am here.
FANGZAR: But surely . . .
The Chancellor turns on FANG ZAR.
PALPATINE: I have said I will do what is right, that should be enough for your . . . committee.
PADME: On behalf of the "delegation of two thousand," I thank you, Chancellor.
PALPATINE: I thank you for bringing this to my attention, Senator.
PADME gives ANAKIN a frustrated look, then turns and exits with the other FIVE SENATORS. PALPATINE turns to ANAKIN.
PALPATINE: (continuing) Their sincerity is to be admired, although I sense there is more to their request than they are telling us.
ANAKIN: What do you mean?
PALPATINE: They are not to be trusted.
ANAKIN: Surely Senator Amidala can be trusted . . .
PALPATINE: These are unstable times for the Republic, Anakin. Some see instability as an opportunity. Senator Amidala is hiding something. I can see it in her eyes.
ANAKIN: I'm sure you're mistaken.
PALPATINE: I'm surprised your Jedi insights are not more sensitive to such things.
ANAKIN: I simply don't sense betrayal in Senator Amidala.
PALPATINE studies ANAKIN carefully and gives him a skeptical look.
PALPATINE: Yes, you do, but you don't seem to want to admit it. There is much conflict in you, Anakin.

(offtopic, this is a funny line -
"Some see instability as an opportunity" LOL. Now who would think like that...)

That might be an extra motivation that has been added now (with ROTS), but the main reason remains that they were just going for the planet that would strike a chord with Leia.

"Hurry, careful timing we will need."
This line probably related to the security patrols, etc.

Perhaps at first. But I think after 20 odd years he was getting pretty relaxed.

I'm not sure how to anser this. For one thing he probably didn't expect the first deathstar to be destroyed, so I can't see the events of ROTJ being the execution of a long planned "counter-resistance" plan. Maybe someone else has a more informed response? I never read the OT novels

 

"How much did the Emperor know about the Rebellion? At what point did he become aware that something was up? Did he take this into account, and devise the ultimate trap on Endor? And if so, was this in order to pre-emptively deal with the possible threat of future insurrections once and for all?"

I think these are questions for which we simply don't have definitive answers. The RotJ novel really doesn't delve deeply into the Emperor's use of foresight or his specific military strategies and so on. I think we can assume he was wily enough to have SOME planning going on and perhaps some contingency plans in place. But I think his line "Everything that has transpired has done so according to MY design!" is simply an example of Sith overconfidence (as noted by Luke). I don't think everything up to that point did actually transpire according to his design. And in any case, we know that what transpired AFTER that point, was definitely NOT according to his design. Always in motion, is the future...difficult to see.

 

Hmmmmm.........Sidious, perhaps?









- TOSCHISTATION

 

I believe that was i_dont_know's whole point!

 

I think it more or less boils down to the Emperor's ability to plan, then adapt on the fly. One of the key elements of the prequels was that the Jedi had grown, stale. Sidious, on the other hand, is a Master of working each situation to his advantage...

Case and point? Lets take a quick look at the organizations that came under Palpatine's DIRECT influence at one time or another.

Naboo.
The Galactic Senate.
The Commerce Guild.
The Trade Federation.
The Corporate Alliance.
The Techno-Union Army.
The Jedi Council.
The Rebublic itself...

There is NO WAY he could manipulate and control every facet of these planets, systems, companies and groups!

If any of you read Dark Lord, you will see the genious of Darth Plagueis' teachings, as manifested by Sidious through the entire saga.

"You must begin by gaining power over yourself; then another; then a group, an order, a world, a species, a group of species . . . finally, the Galaxy itself."

It wasn't about "what" and "when".
It was about "HOW" to rule the galaxy.

 

Oh, absolutely. Fortunately, Palpatine grew stale and complacent after less than 25 years in power. He started thinking the future he foresaw was the only possible future.

 

He became too complacent as well as overconfident and it got him killed and the Sith eliminated forever. If Darth Bane knew how stupid and blind Palpatine would become, I'm sure he wouldn't have been pleased.

 

"Me looking at you looking at me......"

- TOSCHISTATION

 

Good topic and good points. Obviously if the deleted scenes are to be taken into account, he had a very good idea about the growing resistance AND who exactly was involed (2000 or so names to be precise)! I don't think he knew about Bail rescuing Yoda, but as is somewhat documented in Dark Lord, there is plenty of suspicion surronding Organa and Alderaan as a whole in regards to thier loyalties(he was accoused of harboring a fugitive which in fact was true, however he got out on the situation basicly on a legal tecnicality). Bail and then Leia spent thier entire careers in the Imperial Senate carefully opposing Palpatines increased rule. However, there was still the senate to answer to on some level so he couldn't outright attack the planet. Once the senate is abolished however.... I don't think Alderaan was targeted just because they happened to have Leia prisoner. Remember, Tarkin says "in a way...you have helped us choose the planet to destroy first. (or something to that affect) Using the situation to interrogate Leia was just serendipity (from an Imperial point of view).