ST What Does Poor Solo Box Office Mean For Episode 9?

An Obi-Wan movie as a scaled down character drama with a $100 million budget would be fine. LFL's mistake with Solo was spending near three times that on a concept that not enough people were excited for to justify the budget.

But of course then, it's a question of whether smaller-scale Star Wars movies would ultimately be good for the brand or not.

 

If Disney/LF is happy with scaling down expectations and making mid-range films on less of a budget yielding $150-$250 million in domestic box office then that's fine. However, that was never going to be the case prior to Solo. It would have happened down the road at some point, just as it did with DC and will eventually with Marvel. It just happened SO soon with SW and coming off of SUCH monster hits that it's hard to let sink in.

As for IX, I think that "disappointment" depends on what their expectations were. There has been a LOT of debate as to whether TLJ met expectations ( I don't think it quite did but I also don't think it was a disaster). If TLJ was better received and didn't crush so many plotlines at once, it would have done MUCH better-probably IW or BP type numbers.

So where mid-$600 millions could have been an easy expectation for IX, I think we are looking at somewhere in the mid-$500 millions JUST because of the polarizing TLJ which left little suspense and the disaster that is Solo. I think that $550 million is a disappointment but not horribly so. I think that less than $1.2 billion is a disappointment WW. I rhink that anything other than $550 mill DOM/$1.2 bill WW is quite disappointing and the neighborhood of $500-$530 mill DOM/ less than $1 billion WW (that would be less than RO) would be VERY disappointing and reaffirm SW's decline.

Pirates 2 did much better than Pirates 1 because Pirates 1 was SO popular. Pirates 2 was not good at all and thus Pirates 3 fell big time. But more importantly, Pirates 3 was absolutely HORRIBLE. The result was 2 EXTREMELY disappointing Pirates movies domestically that were still strong overseas. Problem with SW is that it is getting exponentially weaker overseas and THAT is a major problem to Disney.

And for whatever they plan to release in 2020, they NEED to be casting NOW so they can do pre-production and start filming at least in EARLY 2019. There's a problem right there. I say that if we don't hear from LFL and Disney this summer (no D23) then there will be a break in 2020 from SW films.

 

Exactly. If they made a Kenobi prequel I can already hear my brother-in-law, a casual Star Wars fan saying, "what's the point? Kenobi's dead. This is dumb."

ETA: @TheAnonJedi I think there's a chance that the stink of the PT would taint a Kenobi movie for a lot of people in the GA, but who knows.

 

Solo not doing as well as they hoped is not much of a factor for Episode 9. The obstacle that Episode 9 has to overcome is the same one that killed Solo. The Last Jedi is what did the major damage.

 

I just think doing a film about a character created from a film some years ago runs the same risk the PT and ST faced. The people that loved Harrison Ford may not like the new actor and vice versa. Plus an updated version of things doesn't always sell real well especially when it comes to style as we learned just recently.

 

"The visuals are boring and dull"

.....Uh, what?

"LFL owes me nothing..."

Well there you go.

 

What damage?

Popped headcanon?

 

umm...how can you look at a disaster like "Solo", and think there is no damage done by TLJ?

 

Oh yes, let’s blame everything on TLJ...

 

At this point, because of Solo being SUCH a disaster I'd say there is at least some residual effects from TLJ. You can't deny it. But I would say that it's more of a dampening effect than outright damage. TLJ didn't catch fire the way TFA did and didn't seem to create excitement for what comes next the way TFA did. Even after Rogue One, the ending is SO emotional and impactful that the first thing you want to do is watch ANH. So with Solo being 6 months after TLJ (and don't forget that 2 months after TLJ came out, BP pretty much dominated everyone's minds) alleged apathy created by TLJ has reared its ugly head and Solo took the hit.

But what is the point in discussing TLJ too much when it comes to Solo? You can't go back so you have to go forward and IX is the highest priority. They do have SW Land to help pump up IX. If you don't believe me, go to your closest Disney store and see how much Toy Story is ALREADY being pumped up due to the pending opening of TS Land this month.

 

Solo's performance will hopefully encourage LFL to focus more on traditional storytelling and better story planning moving forward. There are already some signs of this, but it's now a case of repair as they try to overcome poor ST planning (in a desire to cash in on the property too quickly), the unnecessary deconstruction of Luke in TLJ, and the feeling that some fans have that a Solo film wasn't really necessary.

The possible negative consequences of Solo's performance would be if LFL becomes too safe in their approach and grows even more conservative in trying to connect the EU with cinematic and TV SW. Solo's inclusion of Maul was a nice sign that they're stepping away from this reticence and towards a Marvel shared universe approach, which I wholeheartedly desire.

 

Does not stop me feeling a little sad about the whole state of affairs.
The Star Wars movies I seen when I was young were a big event.
Going to see Return of the Jedi I was 9 and there was a big group of us in an old style movie palace.



Too be honest if the Ewoks had appered in one of the new movies instead they never would have been accepted.
After the movie I was collecting the little action figures the ships and all other kinds of merchandise.

I remember getting this.

A few year later I got to see the trilogy all again on VHS.
Went on to play the Super Star Wars games on SNES.

 

Can't blame everything on The Last Jedi but it is part of the problem.

 

I see good arguments on both sides here. I would never had imagined that, after Disney had bouth LFL, I would have in higher regard the spin-offs than the saga movies. But I see an originality and a personality in RO and Solo that I believe both TFA and TLJ lack.

There is a lot of truth in that very few people were demanding an origin story for Solo IMO. Harrison Ford was the only actor to do the part in 40 years and certanly Alden is no match for it. But we have to admit it, no one could have matched Ford's performance. Even with that in mind, I was so positively surprissed by Solo I could not believe it, honestly.

If the movie is a financial flop I think this should serve as a good lesson for Disney on whether not every famous character is a gold mine waiting for them to exploit it. SW has always had a sense of scale and grandness that Solo lacks. Which is part of why I like it. But a majority of fans might not agree with this.

I believe the Kenobi and Boba Fett films will still happen, but with a tighther budget. And if those don't move the audience, I could see Disney wanting to focus on separate stories but with a larger sense of conflict, like an Old Republic series (probably what W&B are working on).

 

Because that's exactly what I said. Blame absolutely everything on tlj. I haven't been mentioning the way lfl responded to negative feedback.

 

I can see two scenarios that could play out IMHO.

Option 1: LFL tries to do another RO, but can't call it Rogue Two as that callsign was already used in ESB. But the story is the same. It's the bothans mission to steal intelligence that leads up to ROTJ. The information that later we find the emperor actually planted in the Rebellion in order to squash it. This would be a re-tread of the RO and can show Vader and even the Emperor. It could also show Bobba Fett if they want, Mon Mothma, Ackbar, etc. I don't think it will work but because of the boxoffice success of RO they may want to replicate it.

Option 2: Kenobi/Maul movie. Again, based on the rumors and the setup at the end of SOLO. You can tie-in with Rebels and even introduce some Rebels character to a live-action environment if there are plans to use Ezra or other Rebels characters (Thrawn) in EPIX.

I don't think LFL/Disney will go for a "smaller budget" movie. It's Go Big or Go home for them.

 

This report by a veteran media analyst blames the marketing above all else.

https://cowen.bluematrix.com/sellsi...df&co=cowen&id=david@deadline.com&source=mail

 

I think RO was successful because even though it was filling in the blanks of a known story, it focused on completely new and different characters and so it had a freshness to it. Personally I loved Solo, but I think some / many mainstream fans are happy for a character as famous as Han to have his back story remain loosely known, but somewhat murky, rather than spelt out. Episode 9 will probably carry on on it's planned course but I think SW beyond that will need to look more to the RO model if it wants to remain relevant and hugely successful as it's been in the past.

 

It means nothing. The disappointing box office of Solo was a combination of heavily reported production difficulties, a ballooning budget, mediocre marketing, and a release date in the thick of summer competition. TFA and TLJ were both huge hits, and Kennedy has every confidence in bringing back Abrams. Could Episode IX make less than both of them? Sure, but I doubt it will be a disappointment on the scale of Solo.

 

I don't think Solo in and of itself would mean much. An anthology film misfiring was always on the cards. TLJ post its first weekend (off the back of the massive success of TFA and very strong return for RO) and then Solo may be the makings of a trend though. Time will tell I suppose.

 

There is definitely a trend however that LFL will try to reverse.

From the Associated Press

https://www.apnews.com/ddc42825de24...ars-Story'-falls-65-percent-in-second-weekend

As I bolded, two Star Wars movies in a row fell off 2nd weekend which was even worse for Solo because it didn't start off hot to begin with. This after TFA and RO hit it out of the park.

That's a trend, not an outlier. Disney can't be happy about that and they will want IX to reverse it

 

It'll be fascinating to see how Episode IX unfolds. Although it wasn't one of my favourite SW films from a straight out enjoyment point of view I admired the way it shook things up. Will they be prepared to carry on down that road now that there have been a few commercial wobbles?

 

First, let me say that I loved Solo, and thought it was a great movie. That being said, I think a number of things contributed to it not flying financially. As others have cited, it wasn't really greeted with enthusiasm as a concept at any point, and was grossly over-budget due to the reshoots. They got a good result in my opinion, but that naturally cuts profit margins a lot. Second, the fact that TLJ was divisive, and released half a year ago, also dampened expectations. I had hoped that they were going to move Solo to next December, so that there would be less of a gap between it coming out, and 9. Right now, we'll be getting a bit of a drought until then.

I also think that they waited too long to start promoting it. A lot of friends who are fans, but more casual than I am, knew it was coming out, but not this soon. Several commented on not seeing any commercials so close to the release, and how that made them think it wasn't going to be good.

I expect Solo to lose money in the theater given current projections, but expect that it will do quite well through streaming, digital and then Blu Ray. A lot of people I know who are Star Wars fans were skeptical about seeing it, only to hear positives from friends, and then really liked it. I think it will have a successful second life in home viewing, and probably break even in the end.

My hope is that they change nothing with 9 due to Solo's success level. If you start making story decisions based on perceptions on why, or why not, Solo was a hit, then we'll end up with a crappy story, or something not true to what was intended. I suspect that people will find 9 much more satisfying and palatable as a whole than they did TLJ. I loved both movies, but TFA was a more enjoyable movie to me. Love him or hate him, JJ Abrams knows how to make things entertaining to the wider audience. I think he will come through with a satisfying end to the trilogy.

 

My hope is that they change nothing with 9 due to Solo's success level. If you start making story decisions based on perceptions on why, or why not, Solo was a hit, then we'll end up with a crappy story, or something not true to what was intended. I suspect that people will find 9 much more satisfying and palatable as a whole than they did TLJ. I loved both movies, but TFA was a more enjoyable movie to me. Love him or hate him, JJ Abrams knows how to make things entertaining to the wider audience. I think he will come through with a satisfying end to the trilogy.

Wise words.

 

I agree, and I'm pretty sure that Lucasfilm will think so as well. You don't let your current production be influenced like that. Does the run of Solo cause some debate about the long-term planning at Lucasfilm, probably yes, but that's not really something that effects Episode IX.

And I'm pretty sure IX will be a more uplifting than TLJ just by its nature of being the ending. TLJ would always be darker and more negative than TFA or IX, because it is the second act, the period where the heroes run into their darkest hour before they eventually overcome evil in act three. ESB has a lot to offer, but positivity isn't exactly part of it, unlike with ANH or ROTJ. I don't expect it to be any different this time around.

I'd assume that Johnson would have made a more optimistic and positive movie if his job had been to make IX instead if VIII as well, just by the nature of what the middle part and the end stand for in such a three movie arc.