I'd have to say TPM.

 

TPM was marketed more, all the brats who went to see jar jar again and again and again pulled it up. HP is a kids movie, and in my opinion, if one of hte movies is going to bomb, i think HP will bomb before FOTR. I think TPM will hold on for now.

 

Heh, you think Harry Potter or LOTR is going to take the #2 movie of all time?

 

Tough choice (between TPM and FOTR, that is, Harry Potter will not suceed in crushing either). I'm going to have to go with FOTR. It seems every year a new movie breaks records. If something's going to break TPM's records, it'll be FOTR. Do not underestimate the fellowing of Tolken. But if FOTR does manage to do it, I don't think it'll be by much.

 

"Oh yeah...

another poll. "

Hey! It's my first poll!

It will give us something to talk about through the long pre-AOTC Winter.

 

Shouldn't the choice for SW have been EP.II:Attack of the Clones?

 

Some of you are dismissing Harry Potter because it's a children's movie. Remember that a big chunk of the TPM audience was children (even though I believe it was a poor movie for children). Also E.T. and Lion King, two of the top ten movies of all time, were aimed explicity at kids. Star Wars (ANH) probably sold as many tickets to children between the ages of 7-12 as to any other group.

 

Some of you are dismissing Harry Potter because it's a children's movie. Remember that a big chunk of the TPM audience was children (even though I believe it was a poor movie for children).

First off, I do think HP will do well, but it's the repeat business that gives you the success that TPM and Titanic had. Parents aren't going to keep taking their kids to the same movie over and over again, because THEY don't want to see it over and over again, espicially if it's 2-1/2 hours long. But older kids, 13 - 18, who can go to the malls without their parents, will go see AOTC over and over again.


and Lion King, two of the top ten movies of all time,

I knew more older people who liked Lion King than I did kids. If HP manages to appeal to that same older crowd, it just might rock the roof, but with it going up against FOTR -- hmm, mesa think'n not.


Star Wars (ANH) probably sold as many tickets to children between the ages of 7-12 as to any other group.

Maybe, I know I did, but now days with VCR and Blockbuster video, parents can much more easily distract and entertain their kids without having to drive across town and spend $8 a ticket. Back in '77, you either liked what was on TV, or you went to the movies. Technology has changed the game.

 

probably LOTR...but not for long....AOTC will take it right back!

 

AOTC may not take it back if people find it as bad as some people say TPM was (the annoying and imature parts). TPM did as well as it did cause it was Star Wars, but AOTC is going to have to have more than a name. If it is good, then it will do well, if it is as sappy as many people say TPM was (it is still slowly growing on me) then it will not do well at all.

 

It makes sense that many Star Wars fans are also very excited about LOTR. I'm just as excited about AOTC and FOTR and anyone here, and I have a feeling that FOTR is going to be a once-in-a-decade cinema experience. I also believe AOTC will be much better than TPM.

But I don't let that cloud my judgment about the movies' box office prognosis. Given a decent product, Harry Potter is simply going to leave FOTR in the dust. A full-blown fantasy film will never attract an audience the size of a Star Wars audience, unless it is something with the broad appeal of the Harry Potter series. Seriously, people do not think of the series as fantasy. With LOTR, you always know you're reading hardcore fantasy, but with Harry Potter, it's easy to forget.

I believe that FOTR will have a long and happy run and will end up the second-most successful movie of 2001, somewhere at the level of a Pearl Harbor or Mummy Returns, plus a small premium from all the Tolkien fans. Say $450 million worldwide. Harry Potter may do twice that.

 

Indeed I too found myself voting for HP.

I can definately agree that TPM and LotR have a very hardcore group of fans. But I just don't see them having such a broad fanbase.

Hp should blow away LotR in my opinion, if it surpasses TPM is something else, but I could see it happening.

 

A full-blown fantasy film will never attract an audience the size of a Star Wars audience.

Ah, very true, fantasy has a history of failure (which I never understood). But LOTRs isn't just fantasy, it's world famous literature that has already stood the test of time for four decades, and I have no reason to think it won't stand the test of time for a looong time to come. 500 years from now when Harry Potter has gone the way of the doe-doe, people will still be reading LOTR, just like they still read Shakesbeare. LOTR is already a legend in it's own time. The Hobbit was required reading in many schools I attended. I know more people who've at least tried to read one of the Tolken books than I know people whoever considered reading an HP book.

I still think LOTR will rock the box office, and I'm guessing it'll get best picture.

 

Harry Potter will have $200 million in U.S. box office receipts in the bank by the time FOTR opens. HP will make more than $20 million on the weekend that FOTR opens. FOTR will have an opening weekend of $45 million.

 

LOTR and SW have a large fanbase, much larger than you think. I cant put my finger on one particular person that likes the SW films. And that definetly goes for LOTR if not more so! HP on the otherhand has a small fanbase...namely children. SW, eventhough its created for children, attracks many different people..both young and old!

 

Sales figures don't lie: 100 million copies of HP books in five years, 50 million copies of LOTR in 40 years. More adults than children have read the HP books. If you are a child, you will see the movie. If you have a child over the age of four, you will see the movie. I do believe however that many adults who have read the books will be uninterested in the movie - unless they have kids.

 

I still think LOTR will rock the box office, and I'm guessing it'll get best picture.

Is it just me or are people getting their expectation alittle to high for this movie. Ill be the first to admit that the only thing that hurt TPM was expectations, I remember people saying it had oscar potential and that it was easily going to beat Titanic. But when it didnt live up to those way high epectations people were saying TPM was a failure when in fact it was very much a success. I see the same happening for FOTR, I know the critics are going to waste it, thats a given, I really dont think it has a chance at the oscars, and I really dont think it will make as much as people think. The movie could be great but expectations could bring it down alittle.

 

Given the kind of publicity boost it received at Cannes, I think many of the critics are pre-sold on FOTR. I bet every male movie critic in the U.S. has read LOTR. They want this movie to be good as much as any Tolkien fan. Also, critics understand movies, so they know better than to complain about how the movie differs from the book, unless there are some serious issues that mar the narrative pace of the movie and seriously undermine the credibility of Jackson's adaptation.

I predict that hardcore Tolkien fans will be least able to accept the movie, while the general public, to the extent they go see it, will really like it.

But it still doesn't stand a chance against Harry Potter.

 

"Shouldn't the choice for SW have been EP.II:Attack of the Clones? "

doh!

But then it wouldn't belong in the TPM Forum.

I supposed I could have added AOTC if I wasn't so brain-dead.

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"Harry Potter will have $200 million in U.S. box office receipts in the bank by the time FOTR opens. HP will make more than $20 million on the weekend that FOTR opens. FOTR will have an opening weekend of $45 million. "

Talk about bold predictions.

 

The Phantom Menace will definately whip LOTR's a$$. I mean, here it is. LOTR has a HUGE job to being loyal to the book. There are many fans of the book, who will not like how certain things are done in the movie. With that said, if LOTR doesn't hold true enough to the book, fans will be disapointed and if the word gets around that the movie isn't good, fans aren't going to see it. Secondly, LOTR doesn't seem like it has enough to beat a sc-fi epic like TPM. Basically the chanes of LOTR beating TPM are slim. It will very well, but I doubt it will even make more than 700 million worldwide.

 

$700 million would make LOTR one of the top 10 movies of all time.

Here's the breakdown. To be a top 5 all-timer, a movie needs to earn $800 million in worldwide ticket sales. To make the top 10, it needs to earn about $615 million. To make the top 20, it needs to make $500 million. No Star Wars movie has ever failed to make the top 10 list (although 2 have recently fallen out of it).

Only one movie released in 2000 or 2001 has reached the top 20: Mission Impossible 2 with $545 million worldwide, although Pearl Harbor, Shrek and Mummy Returns all made it into the top 40 group.

Monsters Inc. and Harry Potter have the best chance to make it into this elite group. Toy Story 2 came close to the $500 million mark.

I would suggest that the LOTR audience demographics are nearly identical to those of the Gladiator and Matrix audiences. Those movies each made about $450 million. Ergo: LOTR gets $450 million if it is comparable in quality to either of those films.

 

I think LOTR will appeal to the Gladiator & Matrix people AND the Star Wars & Star Trek people & the gamers & all the fantasy book readers, including many older Harry Potter fans. (oh yeah, and the Led Zeppelin fans )

I realize that many people are in a lot of those categories.

 

I agree with you, and I think all those people combined will not be able to scrounge together more than $450 million. Sci fi fantasy geeks have always had, and will always have, only a modest amount of box office clout. LOTR does not have the capacity that Star Wars or Harry Potter has to escape the confines of its genre.

 

If the fans were the only people in the world going to see LOTR, you might have a point.

How many box office hits have an established fanbase to fall back on? Very few, and even fewer with a fanbase large enough to guarentee any real box office impact, yet that doesn't stop the films being a success, does it? Having a large fanbase and a famous source-novel to guarentee a large opening and extra publicity is an added bonus, not the sole benefactor.