Which movie will have the highest gross at the end of its run?

!!!!!!!!!!LIGHT SPOILERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Well Jabba, there is much validity to your point. In The Hobbit, Bilbo is the eyes and ears of the story. You experience everything through Bilbo. That's what makes it more a children's book. With LOTR, you still have the hobbits to keep everything grounded, still making it a children's book. For proof, look at the Mordor sequences... Frodo and Sam are faced with interesting problems, and being that they go about things very bascially (ie like children), that part, to be honest, is more for kids than anything else. After all, bravery isn't acting without fear, but acting in spite of fear. With all that happens in that part, if anything, a kid's courage would be reinforced by it. It's hard not to give anything away to those who don't want to know, so I'll stop here. Jabba, I'm sure you get what I'm talking about, all in all. What do you think?



!!!!!!!!!!END SPOILERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Thsi is the thrid time I've tried to post this. Hopefully my 'puter won't lock up again. :-|

"$90 million first weekend
$50-60 million for four-day thanksgiving holiday weekend
$35 million third weekend
$25 million the weekend
$20 million for weekend five - FOTR opens (FOTR opens with $45 million)
$20 million for weekend six "


There's almost no way that HP will open with 90 million, because it's opening on a Friday, and it's a non holiday weekend. To make 90 million It will have to average 30 million a day for 3 days. The single day record is still TPM's 28 million from it's opening day.

If it was opening on a holiday weekend then it would have a better chance. I could see a moive making over 30 million, but not 3 days in a row. Not with ticket prices where they are and the number of theaters at probably 3500 or less.

50-60 million for Thanksgiving is definitely possible. The real long term key will be the drop off the week after. I could see the rest of your weekend predictions holding up as well (unlikely, imo, but possible).

BTW, FOTR opens on weekend 6 though, not weekend 5 (right before Christmas week), and HP should still do well the next weekend (right before New Years week) so you can add another 20 million dollar weekend to that total.

So that's seven weekends, but after the first week in January, it will probably have at least 75% of it's total.

----

Assuming your highest predictions, plus another 20 million dollar weekend for weekend 7, plus another 56 million for the weekdays (2 mil a day x 28 days), and assuming that it has made 75% of its' total at the end of this period, then it will max out at 434 million, barely edging out TPM.

 

This points to what I was saying about Monsters Inc. helping the other movies.

From Hollywoodreporter.com:

"Monsters, Inc." brings to theaters today a prerelease profile that is more threatening than the creepy visage of its title characters. Competitors will cringe as customers flock to the animated entry from the Pixar production house and Buena Vista distribution.

All audience segments are engaged, so any concerns that "Monsters" might appeal only to young children can be dismissed. Business thereby will be supported during full-priced evening shows attended by grown-ups, as well as at reduced-admisssion matinees that cater to kiddies. Net result: huge opening numbers.

The implication for the industry as a whole is significant. The end-of-year holiday season is a brief window of business opportunity that benefits greatly from the sort of jump-start "Monsters" will provide. With moviegoing momentum established, the way is paved for all pictures to prosper."

 

Well since the other HP - TPM Box Office thread is closed, I decided to bring this one up.

I agree with Jabbadabbado that HP culd help FOTR, just like Monsters Inc. could help HP, getting those movie goers used to taking that trip from hope to the multi-plex.

This season is going to end with a new Box Office record. In addidtion to Monsters Inc, Harry Potter and FOTR, there are several other fairly big movies coming out aimed at other demographic groups.

 

"There's almost no way that HP will open with 90 million, because it's opening on a Friday, and it's a non holiday weekend. To make 90 million It will have to average 30 million a day for 3 days. The single day record is still TPM's 28 million from it's opening day."

You will see that single day record broken on Friday, November 16. If you go to moviephone or Fandango and look at the times. Many theaters are opening their doors at 8:30 or 9:00 a.m. on Friday for first showings. What does that say? Theater chains expect that kids not yet in school are going first thing in the day (not that I think parents are smart to take a four-year-old or younger), or that parents will let their kids skip school. You have no idea how huge HP is for school children. You will see a surge in truency. Middle Class suburban school systems might as well declare Nov. 16 a school holiday right now.

Also, TPM lost money its opening day and weekend because the fan lines frightened normal people away, and online ticket sales had technical problems. Now there are at least two competing online ticket sellers. There will still be daunting lines, but not until the sun comes up.

 

I believe I stated that I thought it was poossible for HP to break TPM's single day record. Monsters Inc came close on Saturday, and I think that's HP's best shot. I don't, however think HP can rake in 30 million on Friday and Saturday and Sunday.

TPM has some showings staring at midnight, so the number of people scared off was off set by the extra showings, I suspect.


------------------

Looks like some actual human beings have seen Harry Potter.

From BBC

"Critics spellbound by Potter movie

Actor Daniel Radcliffe is set to become a huge star The UK's press has hailed as "magic" the film of JK Rowling's bestselling children's novel Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone.

The most eagerly awaited film of the year had its preview before a star-studded audience at Leicester Square, in London's West End, on Sunday evening.

Critics were not put off by the film's hefty 152-minute running time.

Writing in the Sun, Dominic Mohan said the film lived up to its hype and would keep families under its spell for years to come.

"It's dark, it's scary, it's funny. It's a Willy Wonka for the new millennium with special effects that will make the hairs on the back of your neck stand up," Mohan wrote.

"I didn't want this movie to end and I don't know how I'm going to be able to wait for the sequels," he added.

The Daily Mail's Baz Bamigboye said anyone who skipped the film was a "muggle", or non-wizard, and predicted it was bound to surpass Titanic as the biggest box office draw of all time.

"I am happy to report that it truly is a wizard show," he said.

"I suspect that fans of all ages will want to see it again and again...repaying its £110m cost many times over."

"Harry's first spell is captivating stuff," he added, confident that more Potter adaptations were bound to follow.

The Daily Telegraph's John Hiscock said director Christopher Columbus had successfully remained faithful to the book.

"He has managed to keep the saccharine to a minimum, and instead allows Rowling's story to unfold almost exactly as she wrote it," Hiscock wrote.

John Walsh, in the Independent, observed: "At its heart, this is an old-fashioned film about courage, loyalty and belonging."

Its "narrative of decency and fair play" was extremely British, he noted.

Kate Muir of the Times, who attended the screening with her six-and-a-half-year-old son, Barney, said: "Seeing Harry Potter is probably the best moment of Barney's life so far.

"Had the film butchered the text, we would have been gutted. Instead, it was faithful to every word - for two and half hours that passed in an instant.

"I turned to see Barney's face lit up with excitement and pleasure, and I had to prevent myself from sniffling embarrassingly.

Barney himself was scarcely less enthusiastic. "

I think that 110 million pound figure was wrong. I believe the budget was 125 million DOLLARS.

 

Star Wars fans, now more anxious than ever to see Episode II footage, are going to add to the totals - maybe as much as $10 million. I wish I had a clear idea of how much the Star Wars teaser boosted Monsters, Inc.

Almost ever major paper in the country has an article this morning about the London premiere. The news eclipsed the story about Monsters, Inc.'s big opening.

 

Well I get the feeling that the Brits kind of have some national pride at stake - there aren't that many 'big' films shot in the UK with an all British cast. So what doesn't surprise me.

 

The newest Time magazine reviewed Harry Potter positively, praising it with very faint criticism. "Faithful adaptation of the book" and "visually astounding" seem to trump all other comments about the movie. NPR this morning said the same. A common theme is that the child who plays Harry is slightly too sedate, the Hermione character is somewhat grating but that the child who plays Ron is wonderful. Across all the reviews, those are the only criticisms.

 

i've only seen a few of the previews for fotr but i was infinitely more impressed by them than i was for the tpm trailers. my guess will be that fotr makes 250-300 million stateside. but more importantly, i think it will be a truly great film judging by what i've seen so far. one gets the sense that peter jackson is a true fan and wants to bring all the artistic integrity of the books into the films. this is in contrast to the michael bays/roland emmerichs of the world who want to be crowd pleasers and put in stupid dialogue cliches in every scene and generally muck it for the sake of a shallow audience. my prediction is that fotr will be a critical smash and will be up for multiple oscars because jackson has art on his mind more than commerce.

 

The king: "Ah'll be returning"

 

Monsters Inc FINAL weekend Gross: 62.58 million. Down from the 63.484 estimate.

When you go up 49% from Friday to Saturday it's hard to estimate Sunday's total.

 

That's still $17.5 million higher than my estimate for Monsters, Inc.

Harry Potter will do at least $25 million on Friday, Nov. 16, $35 million on Saturday, and $30 million on Sunday. And it could still do $15-$20 million a day for each of the Thursday-Sunday days during Thanksgiving.

 

Harry Potter will have a great first weekend, and probaly second, but then it will die off quickly. Why? Because it will be shown on too many screans and people will get tired of it being in 9 out of 12 rooms per theater. It will then die off quickly in my mind becuse they are going to try to get too much too fast. (in economic terms, a surplus). I think that LOTR will do prety good on its first weekend, but last longer.

We also dont know how many people will be drawn into or out of each movie until we see it. The movies are not going to be the books, and that will make a diffrence. And the simple fact that it is a family film does not mean too much (I seriously dont think Titanic was a family film). So take it from there.

 

Half of all teenagers go to the movies at least once a month. A subset of this population, plus a smaller subset of adult males between 18-35 will be the core audience for FOTR.

About 30% of adults with children under 18 are frequent moviegoers. This group, and their children, will make up the core audience for Harry Potter.

The appeal for LOTR and Harry Potter is going to be immense for people in the core demographics for each movie. The question, really, is who has the larger numbers.

We know for a fact that Harry Potter is more widely read right now than LOTR by both children and adults.

We know for a fact that hardcore fantasy films are a tough sell.

We know for a fact that Harry Potter already has positive reviews rolling in from major media.

 

Has LOTR gotten any reviews yet? That may help us who think FOTR will do better.

(yeah, i read the family film guide or whatever, and it gave HP a 94 i think and FOTR something in the 80's, besides that)

 

I really don't think FOTR's core audience is onyl young males. That may be true of The Matirx or The One, but I think FOTR has appeal for women and men. Most of the LOTR fans I've known have been women.(This is over 20 years of fandom).


The final teaser trailer will show with Harry Potter, so what should add a bit to it's opening as well.

 

I'll tell you EXACTLY what will happen to LOTR. It will open strong, but not strong enough and Tolkien fans will worry and panic seeing their to overly hyped film not meet opening weekend expectations. Many will claim Peter Jackson screwed it up, or that the acting was terrible, and only the trailers were cool. The toys will lay on the shelves unbought even through Christmas, and fans will bash BASH and even more BASH the movie because it was to overhyped. Sure, LOTR will do good, but no movie is perfect, and no movie will ever be perfect. There will ALWAYS be someone who hates a movie(recently more than just someone) because bashing is more recognizable than gushing. If you gush, it looks like you don't know what you are talking about. Has there ever been a perfect movie where everyone said how great it was and no flaws, especially REALLY HYPED films. Trust me, not everyone will like Harry Potter, not everyone will like LOTR, and without a doubt, not everyone will like AOTC, because film geeks(like myself) think they know what is right for everyone to think and can't nderstand how someone else could ever like a stupid lousy overhyped film like that piece of crap. In all honestly, I hope Harry Potter does good, I hope LOTR does good, and I hope AOTC does AWESOME and I hope TPM remains the top unless Episode 2 can pass.

 

TPM probably.

 

Not sure if it's been mentioned in this thread yet, but someone said that HP will make 3 Billion dollors.

Not bad for a $270 million investment.

 

If you look at the entire value of the franchise, easily three billion. More if you include book sales (116 million to-date), merchandising, advertising tie-ins and box office. WB already has a $100 million deal with Coca-Cola, that comes close to recouping the cost of making the movie. Obviously, Rowlings is powerful enough to retain a big chunk of any merchandising profits, leaving less for WB.

The first movie will do $1.2 billion, with sequels probably doing $400 - $500 million apiece worldwide. If they do all the books, HP will easily pass the box office value of Bond and Star Wars, the two most successful movie franchises.

I saw the first of the HP/Coke tv spots last night (*crap*). Already HP is closing in on TPM in terms of hype.

Also, Harry Potter merchandise is already starting to sell out at some retail outlets. The best of the Lego stuff is gone.

 

I thought too much hpye was a bad thing?

 

I guess it depends on whether the movie "lives up" to the hype, whatever that means.

 

HP has already sold two million in tickets for those who wish to get in early.

 

There is such a thing as too much hype. Hype can go way beyond what any movie can deliver.

Jab:

You're really going Out There with these picks.

If HP only turns out to be an average Big Movie, I think I'm going to have to put some of your selected quotes in my sig.