ST Why I Think the First Order won in TFA

My reasoning is based on the destruction of the Hosnian System. This was where the current capital of the New Republic was located. Because of the system's destruction, most(I presume all) of the governors and important government officials were killed. This would severely weaken, if not completely destroy, the New Republic central government. Destruction of the New Republic was a priority of the First Order.

"But what about the destruction of Starkiller Base?"

A good way to think about this would be to compare the destruction of an aircraft carrier or military base(Starkiller Base) to the destruction of the entirety of Washington D.C.(the Hosnian System). Both are severe losses for each side, but one is definitely more significant than the other.
Also: two of the most important men in the First Order(Kylo Ren and General Hux) were able to escape before the base was completely destroyed.

That is my reasoning for why I believe the First Order won in TFA. Feel free to debate or correct me in the comments!

 

Death toll alone = a win for the First Order. I guess it depends how much of their personal were lost on Starkiller Base... (And for the love of God - Would someone give that planet a name!! I hate referring to it as a base )

 

You forgot to mention the death of Solo. According to Alexander the Great, an army of sheep led by a lion is far more dangerous than an army of lions led by a sheep, and Solo had great leadership qualities: intelligence, initiative, bravery bordering on foolhardiness. His belated involvement in the conflict proved pivotal for the Resistance. He is irreplaceable.

That said, I'm hesitant to declare a victory for the Order for the reason that they failed to accomplish their most important objective: finding Skywalker and destroying him. There's a good reason why the Empire was hellbent on exterminating the Jedi.

 

XIII will go along way to answer this question, and I think the OP will be correct.


In material terms, the FO was victorious. They destroyed the NR's capitol and most of its fleet, and XIII's setting will revolve around the Resistance trying to hang on for dear life as the FO advances across the galaxy.


On the other hand, the destruction of the NR will lead to the downfall of the FO, since it now allows the Resistance free reign to fight back. In a weird way, the NR became a detriment to the galaxy because it refused to stand up to the FO because they were committed to peace at any price. But now the Resistance is free to slay the dragon.

 

Both sides had their casualties. But the Resistance/Republic suffered more significant loss. The First Order is in front at the end of TFA

 

I'm not waiting until Episode 13 to find out! Apologies, I know you meant 8.

This was almost skipped over in the film. There was a mention in Hux's speech, but the rest was fleeting images. With the New Republic's leadership and fleet all but gone, and the First Order's main weapon out of the way, there is a vacuum. The First Order didn't seem to lose any / many capital ships, which suggests either they don't have them or they were somewhere else. In the next one, which we know will be darker from the various comments about the script, I think we will see the First Order sweep through the galaxy pretty much unopposed. The Resistance is a tiny band. What have we seen from them? A few fighters and the Falcon - no capital ships. As the only remaining serious opposition, they will need to build up their support and strength. They will, I imagine, find new allies in the wreckage of the Republic. I can even see a new faction appearing which will be courted by the Resistance.

It would be quite cool to have Finn, Poe and the non-Force gang chasing across the galaxy looking for some dormant fleet, or super ship (any Super Star Destroyers left?) to balance the forces.

 

haha ugh, yes....I meant VIII and not XIII.

Posting before coffee consumption is always a risky venture.

 

CodenameShamrock 110% agree. Yes. TFA is told from the perspective of the resistance and the Skywalker/Solo family so it looks like ANH redux, but I've mentioned many times that even if you discount the larger geopolitical implications of Star Killer base, the movie ended in a downbeat note

Finn is injured. Kylo/Hux escapes and Snoke is still at large, Rey finds Luke and we're left at an emotional cliffhanger.

Let's compare ANH and TFA further

In ANH, the Death Star blows up Alderaan, an important world in the universe, and very important to Leia, but not a significant blow to the rebellion. The Death Star is blown up before it can terrorize other 'star systems' by the rebels as it was preparing to blow up the rebel base in Yavin. The Death Star failed completely in its objective to instill 'fear' in the local systems and victory for the rebels was complete albeit not final. It was also a spectacular PR flop. Imagine if a country announced a new 'killer' weapon, say a new type of nuclear weapons system , tests it once successfully, and the entire system is destroyed by dissidents. There is no deterrant factor there.

In TFA, the Starkiller base gets destroyed yes, but it hit the seat of the Republic. The government is all but wiped out. 9/11 is remembered for the damage it caused to the United States, not for the damage suffered by the Taliban and Al Qaeda in its aftermath.
Starkiller succeeded in a massive way. Yes, it would have been even more terrifying had it not been destroyed, but an organization that wipes out the seat of any government, even if it suffers its own setback in terms of say having the attackers killed, or their base of operations destroyed, would be considered a massive threat. Especially if the leaders are at large, like Osama/Mullah-Omar was post 9/11 and like how Snoke/Kylo/Hux remains at large.

 

I feel like they have the advantage by the end, but it wasn't a decisive victory. They destroyed the capital of the NR (and presumably killed most of it's leadership), as well as most of it's fleet. But now, the NR (because I doubt that it's entirety was one system) will be at open war with the FO, and new more aggressive leaders might emerge. The Resistance lost a big chunk of it's fleet, but now the gloves can really come off as far as they're concerned. And the FO's big gambit was also destroyed.

So it's more of a tactical victory for the FO, but things are far from finished.

 

Like Palpatine's election to Supreme Chancellor was missed in TPM, so too was the destruction of the New Republic. I'm not sure if the First Order is ahead here, but it stands to reason that the Resistance has to grow exponentially in order to defeat them.

 

They need to actively re-militarize probably (which presents it's own set of potential problems/hazards).

 

The Battle of Starkiller Base was arguably a tactical victory for the Resistance, but they did lose Han, several pilots, and the Hosnian System had been wiped out prior to the battle.
The First Order may no longer have their most powerful military base, but they still have ships and their leaders. So unless what is left of the New Republic decides to go really aggressive against the First Order, then it looks like Snoke and his cronies are in the lead for a while.

 

The Resistance apparently lost HALF of their fleet attacking SKB actually.

 

It kind of depends on how much of the first order was at Starkiller, it wouldn't surprise me that much if the first order was wiped out by the attack ( for the most part ) and that Kylo/Hux/snoke have to ally with someone else moving forward and captain phasma might only have a small remnant of troopers left over at her disposal and the rest of their army is provided by their new ally. We just don't know where they will be taking this, and it's quite exciting

 

Ancillary material makes it clear that SKB was just the largest deployment of FO forces, and neither its headquarters nor it's only deployment. So they're still in action.

On the other hand, the capital of the Republic was blown up, with all the Republic's Senators and its Chancellor present, and 3PO clearly states that the Republic fleet was demolished.

So yeah. I think the FO will be dominant in Episode VIII, and the Resistance will be fully on the back foot.

 

yes, plus the Republic seems larger than the First Order, and i would figure that the Resistance would gather A Lot of support after TFA. that's sort of the pearl harbor moment IMO.

 

Yea I mean the republic certainly was larger - up until it was blown up by Starkiller. That would kind of be like what blowing up the United States would do to the UN.... Or something... Or that could be a horrible analogy.... But one thing I know for sure is that the Republic took a huge hit, if not a complete knock out. It depends on how expansive the republic was... Someone who's read all the EU might know the answer to that on here. The resistance might be the only thing left and even they took a huge loss to their fleet at least. Both sides have a lot of broken pieces that need to be put back together - and for all I know the First Order could be almost completely wiped out as well as the Republic and a huge chunk of the Resistance when VIII picks up. The Knights of Ren, Snoke, Hux, Phasma might have completely different allies working with them and the same goes for the Resistance. They may be a scattered group with the Republic decimated. We have a lot of things to look forward to being answered right from the crawl

 

if they bother to answer thing's any more than they did in TFA

 

I really didn't care honestly. I got the general political situation well-enough. Plus I believe that the conflict will be present in Episode VIII.

 

That's why I wouldn't be surprised if the guy in your avatar shows up in 8, played by Del Toro. Hux's fanaticism was sufficiently bold to bring the Republic to its knees, but Snoke will need a more strategic thinker if he plans to win a full-scale war involving multiple systems.

 

When C3PO said the republic fleet was destroyed he was referring to the fleet in the Hosnian system, not the entire NR navy.

 

Destroying the capital of the New Republic was a pretty stupid move. All it will gain for the First Order is a invasion by the massively superior military power of the Republic. The First Order will be crushed pretty quickly in a war with them. A ton of resource probably had to go into something like Star Killer Base for such a small government as the First Order. It must've set them back considerably for years because of over focusing on something like that. The Empire took decades to build the first Death Star, which sucked away tons of resources after destroyed. This will only be massively worse for the First Order.

 

The First Order are in the better position after TFA in my opinion. Sure, they lost their main base, but they've effectively nearly brought it back to a First Order v Resistance conflict, just how it used to be an Empire v Rebel Alliance conflict in the CT. The New Republic is considerably weakened and will have little choice but to focus its attention to helping the Resistance, rather than galactic politics - which runs the risk of falling away.

 

I feel like all the First Order did was shoot themselves in the foot. All the Republic will do now is remobilize its military to the size of the Clone Wars and invade First Order space. They will be crushed during the renewed Galactic Civil War. Even without the Jedi, they are massively inferior.

 

I can see why that's your POV. Plus Kylo will undergo and have his training be completed since he survived the destruction of the base. Snoke didnt even seem worried about Starkiller Base being lost. I suppose because it wiped out the Republic and did it's main job? I thought one of the planets they eliminated was Coruscant when I first saw TFA... (Speaking of coruscant, does anyone know what happened to it after ROTJ and did the Republic leave coruscant immediately? Is coruscant still populated at this point?)