Why people are not getting Episode I DVD

You also have to factor in all the pepople who didn't understand the film. Eventually more of them will come around.

 

Not if they never bother to see the movie again, Go-Mer.

 

Who cares about them? It will be their loss.

 

Ernst,

You are wrong. Ep1 was in the TOP ten for MONTHS after its release. I hardly call that disappearing. In fact, Austin Powers 2 and Eyes Wide Shut disappeared from the Top ten LONG before TPM dropped out.

You guys also mentioned how the Ep1 VHS failed to sell as many tapes as Titanic, but you failed to mention how FEW Titanic DVDs were sold. Paramount was expecting to sell millions of DVDs but didn't even sell half of what they shipped.

This indicates that people no longer like to buy the same movie twice or more, and it lends credence to the idea that many people were waiting for a DVD edition of TPM....which is why currently the TPM dvd is selling preorders through the roof.

Heck, if you've watched the top 5 DVD sales on Amazon.com, TPM has been in the TOP 5 since the DVD was announced back in May. I'd also consider Amazon.com to be a more popular business than DVDFile, which gives you a better idea of what the public is going after.

And you don't think people will buy TPM?

On Tuesday, I can't wait to hear you try to cover your ass when you find out how well the DVD is selling and you realize that you are an idiot for doubting.

 

<<Ernst,

You are wrong. Ep1 was in the TOP ten for MONTHS after its release. I hardly call that disappearing. In fact, Austin Powers 2 and Eyes Wide Shut disappeared from the Top ten LONG before TPM dropped out.>>

Your perceptions of "months" are wrong, unless by "months" you mean "more than a month". Being in the top ten for two monhts by defintion means "months". However, I invite you to do some reasearch on this. In the meantime, look at top ten sales figures in your current paper. See the #10 film? What is its gross? $1 million? Less? Inhabiting a top ten slot means nothing in measuring gross receipts. All it means is that you are grossing less than some other films, or more than other films. That's all.

<<You guys also mentioned how the Ep1 VHS failed to sell as many tapes as Titanic, but you failed to mention how FEW Titanic DVDs were sold.>>

EPISODE ONE failed to sell as well as THE TIGGER MOVIE, never mind TITANIC. As for a film with perceived popualrity burning out with a mass populace...sorta sounds like EPIOSDE ONE on video to me. Will history repeat itself with TPM DVD? Doubtful. There's only 20-some odd million DVD players in American households, way too selective a pool to make broad generalizations.

<<Paramount was expecting to sell millions of DVDs but didn't even sell half of what they shipped.>>

Just like TPM on VHS...

<<This indicates that people no longer like to buy the same movie twice or more...>>

Yet they are willing to do the same for TPM? The logic of some of you guys is astonishing at times, I must admit.

<<...and it lends credence to the idea that many people were waiting for a DVD edition of TPM...>>

Um...what? People didn't buy TPM because they were waiting for DVD? This would make sense if there were tons of DVD players in households when MENACE was released on Home Video, but you know what? In April of 2000, when MENACE came out, only 7 million households had DVD players. Again, Fox shipped 15.5 million units, and sold seven INCLUDING the Widescreen Collector's version.

What YOU are saying is that all 7 million of the DVD owners in April of 2000 refused to buy the PHANTOM MENACE...that's rediculous.

<<...which is why currently the TPM dvd is selling preorders through the roof.>>

Yeah, just like the PHANTOM MENACE VHS and COLLECTOR'S set. They had massive preorders too. The film had massive "preorders" as well in terms of ticket sales. The name of the game is LEGS.

MENACE is going to open huge on DVD. But we'll see how the horse is running by the end of the year.

<<Heck, if you've watched the top 5 DVD sales on Amazon.com, TPM has been in the TOP 5 since the DVD was announced back in May.>>

But what were the SALES? Total units? You could sell ten units and be in the top five if all the other untis are nine units and under. You need to think about statistical comparisons and how they can be used to obscure reality.

<<I'd also consider Amazon.com to be a more popular business than DVDFile, which gives you a better idea of what the public is going after.>>

Again, statistical analysis -- most people make their DVD purchases at the store, not through pre-orders. MENACE is going to perform just as it did in the theaters and on home video. HUGE business opening weeks, and then....
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<<And you don't think people will buy TPM?>>

Of course people are going to buy it. People bought INDEPENDENCE DAY for crying out loud. Some people bought BATTLEFIELD EARTH. But we're going to see what the best selling DVD is going to be in the 4th Quarter...and my money is on either SHREK or SNOW WHITE.

<<On Tuesday, I can't wait to hear you try to cover your ass when you find out how well the DVD is selling and you realize that you are an idiot for doubting.>>

Ummm, when have I ever said it wouldn't open huge? All the preorders are rolled over to opening day, so of course its going to have a mega-Tuesday. What I have been saying for MONT

 

Ernest, I have a question for you. Have you even bothered to look at the data and figures you are quoting???

These are figures for total sales in the year 2000. Sales from Jan 2000-Dec 2000. There's a reason TPM had only sold some 7-10 million copies. The movie had only been on VHS for a month and a half.

Duuuuhhhh!!!!

Look at TPM's street date, Nov 21. Now look at Tarzan's Feb 1. Hello, Tarzan had been out almost 10 months on VHS before TPM was.

Jeez, I know you didn't like TPM, but don't let that cloud your judgement when it comes to presenting facts.

Fact... when all was said and done TPM sold 17.5 million copies on VHS in the U.S.... FACT.


Yancy (aka Gallandro)

 

With the Tarkin icon, that post goes over like the Death Star.

 

<<Ernest, I have a question for you. Have you even bothered to look at the data and figures you are quoting??? These are figures for total sales in the year 2000. Sales from Jan 2000-Dec 2000. There's a reason TPM had only sold some 7-10 million copies. The movie had only been on VHS for a month and a half.>>

Wow, the MENACE supporters are really wincing now -- As most every hardocre SW fan knows, MENACE came out on VHS in APRIL of 2000, Einstein. You have the balls to call ME uniformed?

<<Duuuuhhhh!!!!>>

Make that sound a lot, do you?

<<Look at TPM's street date, Nov 21.>>

No, April 4th, 2000.

<<Now look at Tarzan's Feb 1. Hello, Tarzan had been out almost 10 months on VHS before TPM was.>>

No, dearheart, eight weeks.

<<Jeez, I know you didn't like TPM, but don't let that cloud your judgement when it comes to presenting facts.>>

Man, I hope you like the taste of shoe leather, based on how far you've got your foot shoved into your mouth.

<<Fact... when all was said and done TPM sold 17.5 million copies on VHS in the U.S.... FACT.>>

FRAUD. You don't know what you're talking about, as you have so ably deomstrated.

Here's a clue, Yancy, from STAR WARS.com:

***

Simultaneous Worldwide VHS Video Debut of Episode I

Fox and Lucasfilm Announce The First Ever Simultaneous Worldwide VHS Video Debut With STAR WARS: EPISODE I THE PHANTOM MENACE
Global Video Release Set For April 2000.

North American Consumers Can Reserve Their Copies At Participating Retailers Beginning January 28

CENTURY CITY, Calif., (January 5, 2000) -- Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment and Lucasfilm Ltd. announced today the simultaneous worldwide VHS videocassette release of George Lucas' STAR WARS: EPISODE I THE PHANTOM MENACE. As an industry first, this release marks the first time ever that the millions of film fans around the globe will be able to enjoy the same video release within a single week -- April 3-8, 2000. (North America is April 4.) The global video debut of EPISODE I allows fans worldwide the opportunity to re-discover the first chapter of the most popular film saga ever. (Excluding France, which releases in Fall 2000)

-- from STARWARS.com
(http://www.starwars.com/episode-i/news/2000/01/news20000105.html)

I await your apology.

 

Go-Mer, you of all people should know when MENACE was released on VHS. I'm surprised.

 

Uh, Gallandro, I hate to tell you this, but TPM came out in April, not November.

Anyway, Ernest--you act like TPM was a failure because it made 400 million dollars in 50 days? Are you serious? Doing heavy business after being out for fifty days is pretty damn good in my book.

Anyway, I think you may be correct about DVD sales. I get the sense that while the general public mostly liked TPM, they have kinda moved beyond it by now. I don't know if they'll be up for shelling out 20-30 bucks for a DVD. But I'm also not counting out. I could see it going the other way and becoming the most successful DVD ever. It'll be interesting to see how it all works out.

 

I see where you're coming from -- and also could see how MENACE could be King DVD. The number of DVD players in the U.S. is only around 21 million by now, and who knows? Maybe they're all SW fans.

 

What with the Nute Gunray Icon, that post goes over like a Droid Control Ship.

 

Like a doughnut?

 

They sold plenty of VHS's even when most SW fans were waiting for DVD.

 

It sold 7 million units on VHS, and sold most of those in its first weeks. At that time, only 7 million DVD players were owned by Americans. Even if every single DVD owner at that time had bought the MENACE VHS, EPISODE ONE *STILL* would have come in under 20th Century Fox's stated sales expecatations of 15 million units in North America.

Anyhoo, this conversation is not going anywhere. I've got one guy making up release dates and Go-Mer making up motivations and stating them as if they're facts. The only place this thread is going is deletion from a mod.

So, maybe after the 4th Quarter sales figures are released, I'll drop by again with the 2001 numbers. Unitl then....

 

"What with the Nute Gunray Icon, that post goes over like a Droid Control Ship."

Hmmm...not sure what you're gettin' at. My post exploded? Or are you saying that it was ill thought out, much like how Droid Control Ships are designed with core reactors right next to the ship hangars?

Whatever the case, don't get me wrong...I really liked the movie and I want the DVD to be a success. I just don't think it'll be a huge record-setting type deal. Most people I know liked the movie in theaters, but two and a half years later, it's just not really fresh enough in their minds to buy it on DVD. I have a feeling Shrek will probably be the bigger seller.

I'd be more than happy to be proven wrong though.

 

I thought you made good points...

It was more a link to the post I made before it. Tarkin, Death Star, Gunray, Control Ship...

 

Ok, it's time to clear up a few factual and analytical errors I saw on page 1 about TPM's Box Office performance:

Originally posted by Ernest_Rister:

"THE PHANTOM MENACE is the fastest film to gross $200, $300, and $400 million dollars. It made 400 million in under 50 days. You know what happened after that initial rush? It diasppeared. "Popular" movies have legs. They play for months. They don't make 100 million in two days, 200 million in seven, 300 million in 21, and 400 million in 50. "

TPM's actual performance:
100 million in 5 days
200 million in 13 days
300 million in 28 days and
400 million in 67 days. (one more than Titanic)

It spent 11 weeks in the top ten, that's almost three months. Shrek only spent 8 consecutive weeks in the top ten (plus one more a few weeks later), and that movie was almost universally loved, had great legs, and critical acclaim.

The Sixth Sense, which also had great legs, spent 15 weeks in the top ten. But then, it came out in late Summer (August) and most of those weeks were during the slowest part of the year (September and October) not the STRONGEST box office period (May - July)


The Phantom Menace even flirted with the top getting back into the top ten when it reached the discount theaters! It was 13 then 12 in the weekends in middle of September 1999, once it started moving increasingly to the discount houses. On 9/26 (Sunday) it was number 11.

Has any other recent movie ever made it that close to the top ten so long after its run? (19 weeks)

TPM had GREAT legs in the theater, especially for a movie that opened so high.

This link might help you if you don't have accurate info:

The Numbers.com - Phantom Menace Box Office Data

Originally posted by Ernest_Rister:

"You know what happened after that initial rush? It diasppeared."

A drop off percentage of 30-something percent is considered very good, especially for a movie that opens very wide. Almost every number one movie this past summer dropped 50% after the first week, and most continued to drop more than 40% week after week. Look at TPM's drop offs:

5/21/1999 - opened
5/28/1999 -20.69% (Memorial Day Weekend)
6/4/1999 -36.01% (after a holiday weekend)
6/11/1999 -22.07%
6/18/1999 -26.43%
6/25/1999 -25.17%
7/2/1999 -5.81% (July 4th Weekend)
7/9/1999 -43.64% (after a holiday weekend)
7/16/1999 -24.61%
7/23/1999 -25.68%
7/30/1999 -18.50%!!
8/6/1999 -35.01%
8/13/1999 -31.69%
8/20/1999 -19.57%!!
8/27/1999 -25.48%
9/3/1999 +68.62%


One weekend it dropped 40% plus, and that was after the July 4th weekend, movies typically drop 50% after a holiday frame. Only three other times during the summer did it drop more than 30% (which would still be considered very good for a normal movie.)

The Phantom Menace had amazing legs, this is because of repeat viewings, general interest and word of mouth. It wasn't just 'the fans'. The so called Fan Days that occured during the monthly anniversary of it's opening barely made any difference in it's numbers for those days. If "everyone" had been saying what the bashers and the critics said about the movie it would have dissapeared like Wild Wild West, JP2: Lost World, Godzilla, or most of this year's big flicks.

1999 was a record box office year, and I believe 2000 barely missed matching it. 2001 will surpass it, but mainly because of higher ticket prices, not because of more people going to see the movies that were out. The Phantom Menace had an amazing performance week after week while playing against new movies that would go on to gross at least 100 million dollars [].

There was a website in 1999 that was listing specifically the number of films that opened higher than TPM, then dropped below it during it's run - it was a fairly long list.

[found the list:}

TPM Outlasted

 

Way to go, Darth23!!!!!!!

Of course, just plain old common sense would tell us that "flops" don't become the 3rd Highest Grossing Film of all time.....


But, then again, facts to a Basher are like Kryptonite to Superman.

 

Way to go, Darth23!

You know, I'm sure there are tons of directors who would love to have a "failure" the size of The Phantom Menace on their hands. If the bashers consider $400 million in 67 days a flop then what the heck do they consider a success? Heck, according to their standards, even Titanic was a box office failure!

You know, it's one thing to not like a film, but it's a completely different matter to stretch numbers, bend the truth, and try to rationalize a film's success to just make your self feel better about your opinion. Here's a new argument that bashers may want to try: "Even though The Phantom Menace was a popular and successful film, I didn't like it because..." I'm so sick of people trying to validate their opinion by claiming that TPM was a "box office dissapointment" when the numbers clearly say otherwise.

 

Books by directors who's more famous films never hit $200 million.

Why I Have to Call a Taxi Driver by Martin Scorsese

The Good, The Bad, but are my Films Really Ugly? by Sergio Leone

The Seven Dollar Samurai by Akira Kurosawa

Citizen Broke Kane by Orson Welles

The Shining Penny by Stanley Kubrick

I guess they were all pretty pissed that their films werent blockbusters eh?

 

It actually opened on the 19th though. That's why it's opening weekend record was toppled.

 

Could someone PLEASE PM me, I am about to buy the DVD, and was wondering about some secret codes to enter on the remote. Thanks

Also, what is the weblink and what is it? Is it a webpage to access from a link only given on the DVD?

 

<<You know, it's one thing to not like a film, but it's a completely different matter to stretch numbers, bend the truth, and try to rationalize a film's success to just make your self feel better about your opinion.>>

Exactly.

Darth - your statistical analysis is inherently flawed. Percentages and positions on tope ten lists don't prove anything. This is about TOTALS. I find it odd that these were completley left out of your otherwise detailed dissertation. Why? They prove my point.

Here's the truth...MENACE made over 2/3 of its money in the first 28 days. Unlike films with "legs", like THE SIXTH SENSE and TITANIC, which build on their previous weekends week to week and therefore PROVE good word of mouth and audience affection...MENACE performed instead like a film with a massive audience turnout in its opening weeks, and then....splat. No legs. No positive word of mouth. Its a film that made a huge ton of money in a very short period of time. In fact, it even holds records for these stats.

This is why using "top ten" status is inherently flawed. All that tells you is some other movie made more or less money. Not HOW MUCH more or less, could be five cents or five million. You have to look at the weekly totals, and they tell the whole story.

And here they are, the total gross figures by end of the respective weekends:

Day 7: 124,723,784 (Wow! Huge number!)
Day 14: 212,558,695 (Incredible!)
Day 21: 263,679,744 (over 1/2 of its gross in 21 days!)
Day 28: 303,061,673 (over 2/3 of its gross in 28 days!)
Day 35: 332,861,798 (uh-oh! Losing steam!)
Day 42: 356,021,057 (losing more steam!)
Day 49: 374,889,918 (where's the love?)
Day 56: 387,465,405 (the end of eight weeks of release)

Getting the picutre? THE PHANTOM MENACE *eploded!* out of the gate, and then declined steadily week to week until by the end of August, 13 weeks into its run it was pulling down a pallid $120,000 a week!

Now compare that to THE SIXTH SENSE, or TITANIC or other word of mouth favorites.

Face the truth, Ruth. MENACE made over 2/3 of its gross in 28 days and did NOT perform like a word of mouth hit. And that's the fact JACK.

 

I tried to digest the numbers and most of them make sense, but here's the thing that convinces me: I still see a lot of those VHS in the bargain bins, widescreen and p&s.

Something you have to remember is all those sales figures for movies, music, books, whatever are for units shipped to stores, not actually sold to individuals. Go into any music/movie store whatever, see how many copies of that book/cd/DVD are on the shelf? Add in a few more in the back, then multiply that by a several thousand stores across the US (and probably other countries).

Fox overestimated the willingness of DVD fans to go back to the darkside of home video formats, and are probably kicking themselves that they didn't try harder to get some compromising photos of GL to blackmail him into doing a DVD last year.