Will CLONES box office affect EP 3 content?

Obviously, CLONES has just begun its run in theatres so there's still a lot of time left for the final numbers to be determined. But it's becoming fairly apparent that CLONES will not surpass MENACE at the box office. This is very ironic since even CLONES's detractors acknowledge its a better movie. Perhaps MENACE left such a bad taste in the general public's mouth that they're not giving CLONES a fair chance. In any case, I wonder if CLONES only ends up doing $300-$350 million (nothing to sneeze at), how that will affect Lucas's creative choices on EP 3. He's always said that it'll be the darkest and, therefore, the least profitable. But if CLONES underperforms, then I wonder if he'll back off on some of the dark stuff...or just go for it? The safety net Lucas has is that the next one will be the last one, so if it doesn't make any money, there won't be speculation whether or not there'll be a sequel. Yet, I'm sure Lucas wants to go out on a high note: creatively and financially. Discuss.

 

I doubt this will affect how lucas will make EP3..HE will still make it the same as if Ep2 would've made 600mil...Don't worry they got enough money to finance a movie that doesnt make as much as TPM or AOTC made...

 

You can bet that George will make Ep3 as much like TPM as the story will allow...if AOTC is not as successful.

Shows how fickle SW fans are.

The fans hate TPM, but they aren't willing to support the one they do like (AOTC).

If SW fans can't rally behind and support a good SW movie, I'd say George doesn't owe SW fans anything anymore.

 

It won't change a thing. ESB made less than ANH, and many think ESB is a better movie. ROJ made even less than ESB. Sequels rarely make more than their predecessor. It probably will be the same way for the prequels.

 

Actually, I believe AOTC's box office numbers being somewhat substandard (what a great position to be in where substandard is the 2nd most profitable movie of the summer!) are due to the distaste left in many people's mouths after TPM.

Purely anecdotal but...

I have a friend who saw TPM opening night. Thought it was okay. Saw it again, didn't really like it. Got it on DVD same opinion. He still hasn't seen Episode II.

I think there is more potential growth if LFL constructed a commercial of fan reactions being positive, and include one or two people saying that they liked AOTC better than ESB.

To the original question, I would like to think the answer is no, no it won't. What is more likely to lighten it up is threatning a pg13 rating.

If GL does Ep3 well, it could be one of the most popular movies if not the most profitable upfront. It might become more profitable after its release like many other cult movies (Blade Runner, etc.).

Ep3 is going to make lots of money.

--Joey

 

YodaJeff, you're wrong about ESB's and ROTJ's total gross. The original trilogy breaks down like this, before rereleases and the special editions.

1977 Star Wars $270 million
1980 The Empire Strikes Back $173 million
1983 Return of the Jedi $191 million

ESB is arguably the best film of the trilogy. But, ROTJ made more money because before the prequels everybody thought ROTJ was the last Star Wars movie ever and people wanted to see it.

 

Please don't misconstrue my post as saying CLONES is a financial dud. It's something like $300 mil worldwide in just nine days and Lucas is laughing all the way to the bank. I actually think it'll have strong legs, but next weekend will tell that story more than anything else. A lot of friends I know who are in their thirties and were disappointed by MENACE have told me that they can wait to see CLONES. Wait as in a few weeks when the crowds die down (most have newborns and need to plan their social calendars accordingly) or even towards the middle of the summer. It's just not a priority with them. Whether it would be or not if MENACE had been good I don't know. I also think a lot of the general public are scared away from STAR WARS intially because of all the crowds, the dressing up, etc. It's fun for fans, but I know it turns a lot of people off. So I think CLONES will have "legs" but everyone stops paying attention by June or July, anyway. So I just wondered if Lucas is paying attention to the now or to the later. Or at all. Hopefully, he's already got what he wants to do set in stone and will just let this one fly. After all, it's Last Call. Why not party?

 

I believe Lucas mentioned $275 mil as the amount he'd like Episode II to reach so he won't have to "re-think" elements of Episode III.

This strikes me as a very safe figure -- it's entirely (even ridiculously) reachable (the quote's from before AOTC's release).

However, I'd like to think that AOTC could make $10 and Lucas would still push ahead with his original story. All these interviews he's given over the past few years, he's mentioned that the story is there -- he can't (and won't) change it just because people don't like Jar-Jar, etc. For him to change it simply because EpII didn't make any money strikes me as a bit hypocritical, given his comments. Like I said, though, I think he'd go ahead with it anyway.

The PT and their merchandising have given Lucas scads of money -- he can surely afford to make a mega-bomb or two. The question would be if his inner businessman would allow it.

Personally, I think Episode III is safe -- AOTC is gonna cover its production costs easily and George can relax and pull out all the stops for the final episode (I hope).

 

Yes, I think Lucas did say Clones needs to make at least in the upper 200's to satisfy him. He said if it made in the low 200's, then it may affect Ep. 3

 

AOTC has had 202 million dollars domestically in only two weeks. We needn't worry about box office


ST

 

AOTC is in first place....

It won't match TPM (I'm not sure how much it made though), however, ESB made the least of any SW film to date, and I doubt that was because people were "turned off".

 

I think the 200 (or 275) mil fail safe is so he can afford to make Ep3. Could be wrong though. GL always said if the films were duds he wouldn't be able to afford all of them. I would like to think that if this isn't a fail safe then a relatively lackluster BO would motivate GL to really get the Ep3 script awesome rather than revert back to more of a PM style.

PM made so much because of it's hype and the 16 years between SW films. The bad taste it left assuredly affected AOTC's box office.

If you remember back to 1999.

1) PM was major news. Line coverage was running all day when it opened on the cable news. Even national News were running stories.

2) Lack of competition. PM had a big window of oppurtunity with little in the way of big competitors. AOTC not only has to contend with SpiderMan but with a big group openers, both last weekend and the upcoming one.

3) No SpiderMan. This has stolen much of AOTC's thunder. For some odd reason the masses equate quality with box office quantity. All coverage makes AOTC seem like a chink in the SW armor. People may percieve this as a bad movie because they hear about it getting drubbed by SM.


In the end all I can hope is that if Clones is perceived as BO failure by Lucas, then it forces him to make a better movie with Ep3. Not make something more generic.

 

Yes, I was wrong. Either way, they both made less than ANH. I should have remembered that ESB made the least amount of $$.

 

But what does it say about Lucas when it takes a box office disappointment (again, clearly CLONES is not a financial dud) for him to bring his "A" game? Shouldn't that be a given?

 

I can't believe this is actually a topic but...

They say a film needs to make three times its cost to break even or turn profit. If it's made $300M+ thus far, he's already DONE that. Sony spent over $30M promoting Spider-Man. Know how much Lucas spent (because that's part of his deal with Fox...they do the promoting)? NOT much. There were few ads, the newspaper ad was as small as could be, and living in Los Angeles (where a new movie ALWAYS gets a billboard), there were NONE. Why? The media does it all for him.

Let us not forget the miscellaneous: home video, merchandise and that absurd billion-dollar contract he signed with Pepsico in 1999. Factor in Lucas' profits via ILM & his whole THX enterprise, and you have one rich, fat bastard. I don't even know why he came out with that absurd statement about what if it doesn't turn profit. That's lunacy. Money is NOT an issue at this point. GL will spend whatever it takes (and then some) to "finish" the saga once and for all (I say that because I don't rule out Episode VII, VIII and IX).

 

But what does it say about Lucas when it takes a box office disappointment (again, clearly CLONES is not a financial dud) for him to bring his "A" game? Shouldn't that be a given?

It should, I agree. There can be intangibles, but I don't agree with the theory that Lucas is burned out/interested only in making a profit, etc. I believe he has a VERY strong business sense that rules a lot of his decisions -- that being an executive producer really suits him well (I mean that in a good way). Note how he carefully follows budget concerns in TPM, particularly regarding Ahmed Best's potential Jar-Jar bodysuit vs the CG creation.

What I want is him to really bear down with Ep3. Polish that script. Get it solid in all areas -- if this means bringing in writers, then do it. We already know that visually it should be spectacular, and ILM now has one all-digital show under their belt, which will help the post-production pipeline. I think the one area that I'd like him to invest his energy is working with his actors. Give extra time and energy to those who aren't that comfortable working in such a VFX-heavy environment (Portman). Work hard with the interactions between key characters - Portman and Christensen, Christensen and McGregor are the obvious pairs here. Allow his brilliant technical crew to focus on the tech aspects of the production, and put the extra effort into the actors and characters.

If he can do this, I think it'll really pay off with a movie that will surprise the critics (particularly of TPM and AOTC) with its human element. *That* is the key to Ep3 -- the human tragedy behind it all, and that's what I hope will come from all this.

 

I like your ideas Telemachos. I would really like it if Lucas went to Speilberg for help. Maybe asking him to direct episode 3.

Lucas: I want episode 3 to be great, the best film of the entire saga. And I want you, Steve, to help me make it great.

I would have so much more respect for Lucas if he would check his ego at the door and do whatever was necessary to make episode 3 perfect. That means asking for help to write the script, asking for help to direct, and asking for help to edit. Whatever it took.

 

Gorilla: As long as Lucas is asking for all that help from Spielberg, why doesn't he just vacation in Hawaii while the whole thing is going on and let the whole thing be done by committee. For better or worse, Lucas is an auteur. He once said, "All directors should write their own material." He's following through on this mandate and fans have gone with him this far. Why abandon him when there's only one more to go. Yes, he could use a co-writer, but not a co-director. And why does everyone think Spielberg will make a great movie? He's off doing his own thing, with an Aul Lang Syne detour for INdy 4. He's never done a STAR WARS movie and I don't think he's really interested. It's not all ego that Lucas wants to direct the last installment. I think it'll be his most lasting legacy and he wants to be the guy at the helm, whether the ship floats or sinks.

 

Yeah, the problem with getting a big-name director to do Episode III is the clash of two gigantic creative people coming together. It just wouldn't happen -- Spielberg is not a director for hire, to work with someone else staring over his shoulder and having ultimate control.

Let Lucas finish it himself... this is what's going to happen anyway. I just hope he can push himself as a filmmaker and artist to make himself better. The drive and will to do this has to come from within, there's no studio pressure and there will no financial pressure (except what he puts on himself). He could make a decent SW film and it would still be quite successful (in fact, I think he did this with AOTC ). But to make it something special, he needs to look within himself, acknowledge his weaknesses, and focus on improving them.

 

`I would have so much more respect for Lucas if he would check his ego at the door'

If he had done that in the mid 70s, SW would probably never happened.

 

you guys are so right

but i think fatty will come through

 

I guess with the results of each weekly box office report, this question bears asking. I wonder what Lucas, McCallum, and company are thinking. I think Lucas went on record saying that if CLONES does $275 mil domestic, they'd be fine. It looks like it'll do just about that, if not a little above. While certainly not chicken fee (I don't see George on the Top Ramen diet anytime soon), this certainly doesn't support McCallum's ShoWest boast, "You're gonna make s---t loads of money!" Certainly, Lucas will have to reevalutate where this final installment is going to go. Hopefully for the better; i.e., he hires a good writer who can help him with dialogue and structure. He'll trust his actors more; he'll focus more on character and story and less on effects (although McCallum's contention that Ep 3 will have more digital work than Ep 2 doesn't bode well for that last point). Also, I wonder if they'll be able to make as many demands on theatres as they have in the past, as I hear that theatres have lost a lot of money on CLONES due to Lucasfilm's unusual profit participation.

Yes, the numbers are disappointing, but they can be turned into a positive if Lucas uses them as motivation. If they scare him and he decides to play it safe, then we're in trouble. The supposed dramatic finale will become a cartoon geared to Lucas's favorite target audience: The kids.

 

McCallum's quote about "**** loads of money" is BS anyway. Everyone besides Lucas is getting screwed on the distribution deal. Lucas takes something like 60-70 cents on every dollar made. While this doesn't mean chump change for Fox or the theatres, they would be making more on a conventional deal. To put it in perspective. A theatre dosen't really make any money until about the 4th week of release. But Lucasfilm has tied that up as well.

 

Bresson, what scares me when AOTC finishes at 275 and GL makes changes to where he is going with Ep.3 that it will be the WRONG choices.

If he tries to movie in a profitablility direction, that would be more towards ANH and TPM. He may go YOUNGER, because AOTC may have lost money this time out from less repeat viewings by kids and families because it is darker than TPM and ANH were.

ESB made about 65% of AHH orignially because of its more adult and darker themes.

I think partly in response, GL added in the "lighter" part of ROTJ, the Ewok section.

I would HATE if for the Box Office GL decides to lighten Ep.III. I want GL to go into Ep.III knowing he will probably LOSE money on the last installment of the franchise, but to look at the franchise in total and think about if Ep.III is done right, it will make the DVD of all 6 star wars movies more profitable because people will love the 6-part saga more if Ep.III is done right.

 

BLKNIGHT18,

My point exactly. As long as the new trilogy has been a reality, Lucas had been saying that each film would get darker. After CLONES, I couldn't see any evidence of it outside of the Tuskan scene and the final, ominous images. I'm not a basher. I truly, truly enjoyed CLONES, but I also thought it had many of the same problems as MENACE and I just wonder if these issues have to do with Lucas hedging his financial bets. He is a businessman and has always kept an eye on that direction (which he's smart to do). My concern is that an average STAR WARS movie costs $130 mil to produce, before advertising and prints. A $275-$300 mil gross may cause Lucas to wonder if a darker version might not gross HALF that, thereby cutting further into profits. What is hopeful is that the domestic box office is still strong, and perhaps even expected of a sequel. And the overseas numbers are out of this world. Apparently, the movie still has a chance of inching towards 1 billlion worldwide. But domestic is what everyone pays attention to, so perception might be everything, "from a certain point of view."