Will the U.S. economy EVER recover?

Not when will the U.S. economy recover, but will it recover at all?



We have not had the best decade for job growth:
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The country used to be the world's largest exporter of oil, now we are the world's largest importer of oil. Even as the supply of oil is shrinking, we are still highly dependent on it. Now we're dependent on the foreign countries that oil comes from, and all the national security risks and challenges that creates. Oil is not only essential to our transportation, but also our agriculture as well, and even our military forces.

The burning of fossil fuels from our factories, power plants, and automobiles are a huge source of pollution. That pollution is a threat to public health and the environment, and a threat to the country's natural resources.

Many regional and local economies along the coasts of the U.S. depend on fisheries, which are set to collapse, many fish species may soon become extinct.

Whether you believe that climate change is man-made or not, sea levels are rising around the world, weather patterns are being altered, droughts and floods will worsen, regions with temperate/4-season climate may soon shift to become very cold or very hot. This will, and in some areas already is, affecting the country. The same threat to other countries may cause overwhelming mass migration to the U.S.

The country, especially the Western states, are expected to go into severe and permanent drought in the next few decades. You already have states fighting over access to water.

The Ogallala Aquifer, which supplies over 80% of the Great Plains region's water needs, along with a large chunk of the country's food supply, is forecasted to run out within 20 years.

The post-WWII Baby Boomer generation is going into retirement, to put a strain on Medicare and Social Security. Social Security is still expected to be financially sound until the 2040's, but Medicare may run into trouble as early as 2017.

Medical expenses are the number one cause of bankruptcy in the United States.

Within our lifetimes, if currents rates continue the costs of healthcare are expected to grow to 100% of GDP (not just the national budget, but the country's total GDP). We would have to borrow money to pay for anything not related to medical expenses.

The costs of a higher education are also skyrocketing, and if rates continue the middle class may no longer afford to go to college.

Public education is often underfunded, and the drop-out rates are surprisingly high. The national average is around 15%, about 6 million a year.

Our infrastructure is aging and falling apart, and is no longer the best fit for today's world and how our society has evolved. Natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina, show how badly our infrastructure can fail us.

Slavery, real slavery, still exists in the United States. Sex trafficking of children and young women is growing, controlled by criminal networks, due to the high and growing demand for sex slavery in the United States.

The country is no longer the manufacturing, industrial center of the world. Everything we use still needs to be made, but our businesses go for cheap profits (using child labor from third world countries, overworked in very poor conditions, or illegal immigrants) instead of quality and self-reliance. This is a significant reason for our huge trade deficit, and reliance on borrowing from countries like China.

The population is both growing and aging, people are living longer and still having kids, but our resources remain limited and unable to support this trend.

Chronic diseases are rising in industrialized countries, including the United States. Autism is on the rise, asthma is on the rise, obesity is on the rise, diabetes and cancer and HIV/AIDS continue to plague. Disorders relating to the immune system have gone up, such as Multiple sclerosis and hay fever. There is possible evidence that the rise in hygiene, along with the killing of good germs and worms, is actually the cause of man

 

Sure, it'll recover, but you need hope for that and right now I don't see a lot of it coming from people. Sooo...this may be more bleak than before because people seem to be just shrugging their shoulders and seemingly giving up. I'm not saying everything is sunshine and roses, but cripes...I've seen more joy among goths and emo kids than I've seen reflected here or anywhere else. And keep in mind that I'm an anxious sort who constantly thinks every ache and pain equals death and I'm the optimistic one here. That's...so...sad.

 

In short, yes.

And many of those issues are linked or things that can be overcome.

Not everyone SHOULD go to college, and if you start focusing on trade schools as an acceptable option, you get people out of college that are going just to go without an intent to use that in a future career, and that will allow costs to go down as demand drops a bit, while building up more people to do the jobs that we've been shipping out.

As costs necessitate it, we'll keep seeing developments in other energy sources (hopefully we get nuclear on an upswing asap, and get solar and wind following it up), and better energy sources will allow for better energy for desalination plants, which is a good option, but there's currently public opposition to various forms of recycling water, but when it becomes more necessary, it'll become more accepted.

The illegal immigration situation has dropped in criticalness with the economy, as people coming here illegally are usually financially motivated, and there's more and more coverage now of families in third world countries having to send money to support illegal immigrants here because of how the economy is struggling. It's providing reason for fewer illegal immigrants to come in, and some to go home.

I think we've got a critical mass for doing SOMETHING about health care, and while I don't agree with some of the biggest ideas, having it up for public discussion is something that I believe will mean progress will be made in getting costs under control.
Also relating to health care, autism rates are going up at all age ranges, which would indicate that its an increase in awareness and diagnosis, not an increase in occurrence.

And as a final issue I'll focus on, I think that the numbers in jails, gang crime, and state budgets are all likely to get a reprieve somewhere in the next 10-25 years as at least some drugs like marijuana are gaining increased acceptance and there is, thanks to the economy, real discussion about decriminalizing or legalising marijuana to help state governments.


Yes, you can easily look at the situation in doom and gloom terms, but necessity is what pushes humanity to figure out solutions to problems. We've got a lot of necessity all around us right now... so now its just down to people working hard for those solutions.

 

That post is probably the most pessimistic one I've ever made, it probably sounds more pessimistic than I actually think it is. But I think it is a discussion people need to have.

There are many who assume a recovery will/should bring America right back to where it was, like nothing ever happened. That may have been the case from 1945-2008, but I really don't think we can go completely back to where we were, or even that we should. The country is changing, the world is changing, our needs are different. And, as I outlined above, we have a lot of serious problems that need to be addressed.

I don't think we can "go back," we have some very fundamental problems that need to be fixed, and not all of them have easy solutions. The United States, while it will probably stay the most powerful country in the world for our lifetimes, will not be the sole superpower for much longer, China and India and the rest are rising. The entire international system of sovereign nation-states is a bit outdated, with non-state entities becoming more and more important, the world becoming more globalized, transnational issues trumpeting state sovereignty. Then there are the environmental and resource issues, health concerns, various financial/economic/commercial problems, etc.

I'm simply not convinced we can recover to what we once were, in the not-so-distant past. We have to adapt to the changes, and accept that America won't be as powerful anymore.

 

I think that the United States true power isn't a military or economic strength, its an ideological one. And really, as those strengths spread, I don't think its necessarily a bad thing for the United States, even if leads to diminished focus on the US as it won't result in ideological dominance of elsewhere.

 

I believe that too. It might even be a good thing, we will no longer have the burden of being the world's police if other nations start to step up in their own neighborhoods.

But while our pro-rights/democratic ideology might not be seriously challenged here at home, poor nations are now looking more to the authoritarian capitalist model of the PRC, instead of the USA.

 

Yeah, but the PEOPLE are looking to freedom. Not only the pressures existent in China in that regard, but you have people pushing against authoritative regimes around the world. This isn't necessarily that new of a situation, but hopefully the U.S. can leave well enough alone and not decide to mess with democracies to control economic policy as happened in the 50s.

 

Yes, it'll recover.


Now, as to "third world countries emulating the authoritarian-capitalism of China rather than the democratic-capitalism of the USA"...that's why they're third-world countries to begin with. That's not new, and has been the case for about a century now.

It's also why those countries are total failures. I mean, seriously, outside of China, point out an authoritarian capitalist country that isn't also a failed state. And China has it's own set of deeply serious problems as well.

 

Taiwan and South Korea were not always so democratic, and Singapore is also heavily authoritarian under the appearance of a democracy.

But that's getting a little off-topic.

 

We started the 2000s thinking "will the US economy EVER have a recession again?". Maybe thats an exaggeration, but we started the new century with so much blind optimism that it makes the relentless beating the country's pride received over the following ten years seem that much worse. The bar has been set so low for the 2010s, we are now asking "wlll the US economy EVER recover?". Given what we all just went through, I can't help but feel that this is a much better position from which to start a decade.

Vietnam.

 

Clearly what we need is another world war.

 

The U.S. ultimately will have to reorganize its economy to achieve a balance of trade. We cannot continue to be a net importer and net debtor nation. The best path forward in the short run would be heavy investment in alternative energy and energy conservation and the development of exportable technologies in the energy sector.

 

Well, that'd satisfy our doom-and-gloom contingent here where 4 billion people need to 'disappear'.

 

I don't even think that would work. World War II jump started the economy because we actually had factories in the US that made stuff back then. Any world war now, assuming it didn't blow us all to smithereens, would jump start China's economy, not ours.

Elaborating on what Jabbadabbadoo said, we need to invent something and produce something here. We keep lamenting the loss of manufacturing and "made in America" goods when those goods are not going to be made in America again no matter how much we complain about it. Americans are not willing to work for the slave wages that the Chinese work for, nor should we be.

But that being said, we are moving out of the industrial age anyway and into the information age, so we need to invest in and market an information-age product; new technology comes to mind, and given the fact that oil is a finite resource and we will run out of it, probably within our lifetimes, investment in alternative energy is a great place to start.

 

Two. Congratulations.

 

I can't help thinking the opposite.

As far as I can tell, Americans are putting too much faith in a broken system that should not be repaired.

In regards to oil supplies... the best solution to dealing with that is to renovate the entire US transportation infrastructure to not depend on oil anymore. For that to happen depends on switching to electricity. To use electricity in public transportation will require increasing population density. Fewer people living on less land means universally lower upkeep costs.

The US economy can recover, but it will require a renovation of almost every system in the US infrastructure. Whether it be physical or envrionmental, we must focus our efforts more towards reduction than in increasing output to keep American GDP growing. We must realize GDP represents ALL transactions that take place in the US; not just what is produced, but what's consumed and imported.

 

edit: Actually, I'm not sure what your point was in the last sentence so my response may not have made sense.

 

Yep, this is a good one-sentence summation.

 

Excellently put, but it was made by someone who thinks 4 billion people just need to go away. So if we're going to do that I definitely would not put the pessimistic doom-and-gloomers in charge of it.

 

The stimulus package actually has put the U.S. economy into overdrive, to WW2 levels, just without the war.

And while it may have prevented a depression, it hasn't exactly sent the economy into recovery.

Agreed.

But will even that allow for the U.S. to completely recover? Or do we need to lower our expectations, "small is beautiful," etc.?

Exactly, we need more manufacturing and industry here in America. But it shouldn't be from protectionist measures, but from us actually coming out with the superior, quality products. For example, my grandparent's fridge lasted for 40 years. We've gone through three in the last 15 years. My uncle's TV is 30 years old, it still works fine, and we haul it up fro mthe basement whenever one of our new televisions happen to break. I'd rather buy something that will last me for 40 years, even if it is a bit more expensive, than something flashy and cheap that will only last me 5 years.

Overpopulation is a problem, but I don't think so many people should just "go away," and I don't think anyone else is advocating that. I still hope that technology and innovation will provide us with something, but we can't count on them magically making all the problems go away. We have to start working on our resource and environmental problems now, before it gets much worse, and do what we can with what we already have instead of keep waiting for the technology fairy to bestow upon us everything we need. Stuff has got to change, we can't go back to where we were before.

 

Don't forget that the stimulus package doesn't constitute economic recovery. The US is trillions in debt. And the worst thing is to find new ways to go even deeper in the hole.

I will admit that the stimulus is in the US's best interests, but we must not forget that building high speed rail lines, wind turbines, and replacing sewer systems are not improving the US economy. The benefits come after the work has been completed.

Seriously think about it. If you have to replace systems and bridges every fifty years, you would technically be improving the nation's GDP much more than if you replaced them every twenty five years. Don't forget that replacing electrical lines and roads are expenses, yet they are registered as growth in the US GDP. We need to start segregating such negative numbers from what is actually being produced. If you did, we would be shocked at how little the US actually produces in comparison to how much it takes to keep the country operating.

The military is another such example of raw resources... wasted. Building an F-22 might be considered good because it generates thousands of jobs, but really think about what you get back from that $150 million you invest into the fighter. Then consider how much you spend to keep the fighter flying; it's astounding. The only time you really get your money's worth for military equipment is if you are attacked. An F-22 taking down an enemy bomber would make more sense than having a factory complex destroyed. Having troops ready to protect civilians makes sense, but you should realize that investing in the military is a zero-sum return.

Definitely we need to go with 'small is beautiful' and reducing waste altogether. One of the reasons why I hate capitalism so much is that its goals have always been 'more' 'better' 'bigger' 'longer' and virtually anything where you could make a profit. Saving and reducing demand hasn't been as successful because you actually detract from the economy by having more fuel efficient vehicles.

Capitalism is fueled by consumer demand. When demand for any one resource or service exists, that is the driving force behind increasing production. The problems we've faced were related to American culture. We came to believe it was a necessity for everyone to have their own house. Their own car. And to have the best and the most... showing off their wealth.

Unfortunately capitalism works both ways. You can easily manipulate demand by targeting a resource and diminishing its value. Gasoline was the driving factor behind why we are so dependent on petroleum for transportation. If the markets had kept the price of oil at about the same rate as in Europe, we likely would not be in the crisis we're in. At least we would have developed our urban landscapes to reflect those of Germany and France. They use less gasoline per capita because they didn't artificially manipulate market prices.

The EU has generated an economic system where every service and every resource can be maintained for the present and the future. They may occasionally go over their budgets, but they don't set themselves up for an economic crisis. Every deficit is eventually countered by a surplus. They don't take economic gambles. The higher taxes citizens pay are specifically set so every citizen has access to health care, police, fire, education, and military protection. That's exactly what the US will have to do as well.

 

I think that a big part of it may be that Americans need to massively lower expectations. Everyone expects to go off and live the American Dream, but that dream is completely unrealistic in so many ways...

And I'm going to have to echo the comments about a decided lack of production in the 'States. I'm a contractor at an R&D facility where a Korean company develops cell phones. It costs said company less to ship Koreans and Indians over to the United States on work visas for months at a time--with housing & rental cars paid for--than it costs to hire Americans to perform the same job. And our labor laws prohibit the sort of hours that these poor guys work, to boot. They routinely put in six thirteen hour days a week here (the Pacific Northwest). The Americans that work here all have positions with disquietingly-nebulous titles... "Executive marketing adviser," "senior quality assurance assistant," and, "information management data specialist," speak to a somewhat troubling dynamic which--in my completely unscientific observation--illustrates the trend that I see. That trend being that Americans seem to, on some level, view production as 'beneath them' anymore.

Our cars? Not, for the most part, made in the 'States or by Americans. Our cell phones? Same. Computers? Toys? Clothes? Foreign or foreign-made. I know I'll sound startlingly like I'm not a political conservative here, but rampant consumerism and a sense of post-Cold War entitlement seems to have priced us out of the market. We want and take and take, but we do so without any sort of budget. We're a nation of credit and debt, and it surely looks like we want to have everything we want simply provided to us. Maybe--and I hope this isn't a whole other can of worms--to include 'free' health care.

I think that, as a civilization, we need to realize that we simply cannot afford to expect a standard of living that is so out-of-step with the rest of the world, and believe ourselves entitled to it. And I think that this needs to start at the ground level. The trend with globalization is the people are willing to work for far less than Americans, and it's my opinion (again: completely unresearched) that we need to wake up to this and adjust accordingly.

 

No, you sound like a real conservative.

 

Re: Topic









NO

 

Jobs data show economy at critical crossroads
Blue-collar job losses contrast with growth in health services, professions

There's a major hurdle to the U.S. economy's recovery: The mismatch between the skills held by the millions of people who are losing jobs and the expertise needed for the few jobs that are being created.

The nation lost 53,000 construction jobs during December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, the lion's share of the net 85,000 jobs lost last month. It also shed 27,000 manufacturing jobs. Taken together, those two sectors have shed about 3.7 million jobs since the recession began in December of 2007.

By contrast, areas that saw job growth during the month included health services, which added around 22,000 jobs in December, and professional sectors such as architecture and engineering services, computer systems design and administrative and support services.

?The mismatch is there. People with certain kinds of skills that may not be readily transferable to other parts of the economy ? continue to be hit really hard in this downturn,? said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.

The job losses have been so extreme in sectors such as construction that many believe it could take several years for employment to return to its pre-recession levels.

In the meantime, millions of construction workers are unemployed and lack the training to get a job in the few fields that are hiring.

They also may simply not be a good fit.

?Do construction workers really want to go into an office?? Naroff said. ?Those are really skilled workers, and a lot of them choose a lifestyle because they like it.?

Jobs in areas such as auto manufacturing may never return, leaving those workers with no choice but to find a job in a new field.

?It?s pretty clear there?s going to be a lot of structural unemployment, which means there?s a lot of people who have been laid off from jobs that just don?t exist anymore,? said Marisa Di Natale, a director at Moody?s Economy.com.

That could lead to higher levels of unemployment even after the economy has recovered more fully. Also, even if manufacturing workers eventually find new work, growing global competition may force them into jobs that pay less than the ones they lost.

?They have skills that might be transferable, but the question is, are they going to be able to match the kinds of salaries and benefits they were making in those companies?? Naroff said. ?A lot of people could be looking at a fairly permanent reduction in (salary).?

This is why we need a Green Industrial Revolution in America.




China tops U.S. as largest auto market in ?09
Beijing total vehicle sales hit 13.6 million ? a 45 percent growth over 2008

China overtook the United States as the biggest auto market in 2009 and automakers should see more strong growth this year, an industry group reported Friday.

Boosted by Beijing's stimulus, 2009 passenger car sales soared to 10.3 million and total vehicle sales are estimated at 13.6 million, the China Passenger Car Association said. That represents growth of about 45 percent from 2008.

"This is even better than anyone expected," the group's general secretary, Rao Da, said at a news conference in Shanghai.

By contrast, U.S. sales of cars and light trucks plunged 21 percent in 2009 to 10.4 million as a shaky economy kept buyers away from showrooms. It was the first time any country bought more cars than Americans.

The Chinese group's data were in line with forecasts by J.D. Power and Associates of 12.7 million sales of cars and light trucks and 900,000 bigger vehicles in 2009 for a total of 13.6 million. The company in early 2009 expected sales of 9 million vehicles but raised that as Beijing rolled out measures to boost demand.

"It's very, very strong growth, far beyond the expectations we had in the ea