Will the U.S. go to war with Iran?

Ender_Sai

Iran will depend on how the mullahs deal with the people. Right now, they could realize the jig is up, and eventually go along, or they could follow the course that Li Peng and the People's Republic of China did - which was the massacre at Tiananmen Square.

If they borrow a page from Li Peng's playbook, then there's going to be a very tough call to make, and we may have no choice but to go to war.

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By the way, I happen to like a lot of Jerry Bruckheimer's movies.

 

Um, we didn't go to war with the PRC after Tienneman, did we? Why is the only recourse war, in your eyes?

 

I don't think war with Iran will be a neccessary option, unless some completely unforseen circumstances take place there.

Iran is currently in the state that China was in the late 1970's.
There is a book by Bramall, "Success of Chinese Economic Growth," that explores the shifts in Chinese economic policy.

China reconized that fact that, in order to become a world power, it had to start interacting on the world market.

The Chinese Socialist government began to loosen central industrial planning, and moved to a market/technological based economy.

Granted, the governmet still controlled information and policy within China, but the realization was there that the "larger picture" had to be looked at.

When Chinese prosperity became tied to the world economy, China ceased to be a direct military threat.

Practically, the Chinese continued to build its military, but it focused on an internal, defensive force, rather than an aggressive one. China could talk tough, but it could not afford to alienate its trading partners. The stakes were just too great.

Iran is currently in the same boat. The leaders want to modernize Iranian society, and reconize the fact that, in order to do so, Iran has to become part of the world market.

The most important aspect of this realization is that INTERNALLY, the Iranian people desire this. It was not forced upon them by a third party.

Already, the Iranian government is taking steps to losen fundalmental clerical control of the government.

Granted, right now, it could go either way, but it is interesting to note that according to the Chicago Tribune, June 4th:

2% of the Iranian people support President Bush, while 56% of the people support American style freedom and prosperity.

I think the Iranian people realize what is at stake, and will not jeapordize Iran's world standing by continuing to isolate itself.