Amph Will there be any billion dollar movies in 2013?

Discussion in 'Community' started by Jabbadabbado, Mar 19, 2013.

  1. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

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    Mar 19, 1999
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    The pickings are slim. Hobbit 1 squeaked into the billion dollar club. It's possible that Hobbit 2 will do as well, but given the problems with part 1, a box office decline seems just as likely.

    Unless we're surprised by one of the very few non-sequel movies coming out this year, the only other movies that are possible contenders are:

    Iron Man 3

    No Iron Man movie has ever come close to the $1 billion mark. Yet Marvel is riding the Avengers wave, the most successful comic book movie ever. If Iron Man gets a major Avengers boost, it could do much better than Iron Man 2. Otherwise, it would likely land in the $650-750 million range.

    Star Trek into Darkness

    The new Trek franchise has room for improvement. Trek only did $385 million worldwide. Not even break-even for a $150 million movie that likely spent another $50-$75 million or more on marketing. Maybe this one could do $600 million.

    Hobbit part 2

    Hobbit part 2 could do anything from $850 million to $1 billion. It has the best odds, but it comes with serious caveats. There are plenty of disgruntled Hobbit fans out there.
    Monsters University

    Pixar is reliable, but their box office clout seems to have taken a nosedive since the Disney acquisition. Every dynasty ends. The Monsters Inc. 3D release barely registered. I don't think this has a shot of doing even as well as Brave, which wasn't all that fantastic.

    Hunger Games: Catching Fire

    Hunger Games was a monster $400 million hit domestically, but only did so-so abroad. There's room for a lot of foreign growth. Jennifer Lawrence is hitting a peak on the needle that leaves her dangerously close to being way overexposed and headed toward a Natalie Portman style backlash. But on the other hand, the Hunger Games stories get progressively worse. The sequel is a tired recapitulation of the first novel. The third novel is just plain bizarre. I don't see this hitting a billion.

    Man of Steel

    Superman is deader than dead.

    Thor

    Thor was a modest worldwide success, barely hitting 3 x its production budget. Unless it gets a major lift on Avengers' coattails, it will not come close to a billion.
    Last edited by Jabbadabbado, Mar 19, 2013
  2. Violent Violet Menace Force Ghost

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    Aug 11, 2004
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    There's a Thor sequel coming this year? I've been asleep, apparently.
  3. soitscometothis Force Ghost

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    I think you underestimate Man of Steel. And I'm someone who flat-out hated Superman in the comics when I was younger. I think it has huge potential if the creative team gets it right.
    MrZAP likes this.
  4. Debo Chosen One

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    Man of Steel is an odd one. It's in a similar position as The Incredible Hulk at the time: not only does it have to be good, it has to be good enough to redeem a bad predecessor. It has to convince a skeptical audience, and breathe new life into an ailing franchise. If the movie is a success, well, I guess the guy really is Superman.
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  5. VadersLaMent Chosen One

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    Apr 3, 2002
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    I don't know that Superman is deader than dead. I am not sure about the billion dollar part but that is one damned good looking film. It will do well.
  6. Jabbadabbado Manager Emeritus

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    Mar 19, 1999
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    Exactly. I'd love it to be as great as the 1978 classic, but it's more probable than not it will only be mediocre. And if it's only an average movie, it will flop, because audiences are not at all excited by the brand.
    Last edited by Jabbadabbado, Mar 19, 2013
  7. soitscometothis Force Ghost

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    Jul 11, 2003
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    It just needs incredible action, a strong hero, and a great villain. I know Snyder will deliver the action... the rest, well I can only hope.
  8. DantheJedi Force Ghost

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    Aug 23, 2009
    star 5
    I dunno if a Star Trek movie could ever pull a billion dollars worldwide. Star Trek is bigger in some countries, and not in others. For example, Trek has a big fanbase in Germany, but not in France (I heard the reason why is that when the original show was dubbed for syndication for the French market, they used French Canadian voice actors, which turned the show off to the French).

    Because of that, I wouldn't count on Star Trek Into Darkness making no more than $500-600 million at the absolute most.
  9. Mortimer Snerd Force Ghost

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    Dec 27, 2012
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    When is Thor 2 coming out?
  10. DantheJedi Force Ghost

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  11. Sith-Lord-Gunray Ex-Mod

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    Monsters University, definitely.

    If Thor 2 is done completely differently than Thor, and it does have the potential for that, then it COULD be a hit. But I doubt it.


    The others, naw.
  12. Juliet316 Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Apr 27, 2005
    star 7
    The Hobbit 2 probably has the best odds of all of them. Even if there are disgruntled Hobbit fans, they'll probably want to come back to the theaters for the second and third acts to see how Jackson finishes everything out.
    Miana Kenobi, MrZAP and NYCitygurl like this.
  13. NYCitygurl NSWFF Manager

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    I'd say Hobbit has the best chance, followed by Iron Man 3. I really don't see any of the others hitting that.
  14. Aytee-Aytee Force Ghost

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    Iron Man 3, I hope. It looks like it's going to be a "Better than Sex" movie.
  15. SithLordDarthRichie London CR

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    Oct 3, 2003
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    Iron Man will do well, the trailer is very impressive (though that tends to be the way with such movies) and as a character he is the most popular of the Avengers bunch. I can't see it doing $1billion though, 3rd parts in a superhero series are usually the weakest and IM2 isn't considered by many to be as good as 1.

    Hobbit may divide people, but this next one is going all freakin' Dragony which will most likely be super-impressive knowing Weta and its excellent visual effects department. Dragons are popular, especially if good acting is around them while they destroy things :p

    I'm not sure about Man of Steel. Superman is very popular and this movie has had a lot of buildup as well as comparison with the Dark Knight Trilogy which was very successful. I don't see it doing Avengers money at all, but if it is good I think it might end up being the highest-grossing superhero movie this year (though if IM3 is as good as it looks it may be untouchable in that category).

    Star Trek I thought was great, suprised it didn't do so well. It seemed to be very popular, I recall IMAX screens being full of people who wanted to see it.
    Given Abrams is now known to be helming an even bigger sci-fi franchise, might that attract some viewers who want to check out his work so as to have a better idea of what Episode VII will be like?



    Pixar are awesome, but I can't imagine an animated film making as much as Avengers did. I'm sure MU will be great though.

    The rest I don't see making huge money, Thor was decent I thought but I don't see the second part being a huge hit.
  16. Sith-Lord-Gunray Ex-Mod

    Member Since:
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    I am loling at you people who think Iron Man is going to do really well. hahahahaahahaha.
  17. Aytee-Aytee Force Ghost

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    Jul 20, 2008
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    Though to be fair, IM3 is more than just a "3rd part in a superhero series", since it's technically Marvel's The Avengers, Phase II, Part 1.
    I think I'm pretty safe in expecting hints for Captain America: The Winter Soldier (The Mandarin possessing an Anarchist Cap Shield tattoo and Cap's 1942 USO helmet, plus War Machine's Iron Patriot overlay) and The Guardians of the Galaxy (Space Armor).

    And the Hobbit will only break $1B if they find a way to shoehorn Tom Bombadil in there. :p
    Last edited by Aytee-Aytee, Mar 19, 2013
  18. Juliet316 Chosen One

    Member Since:
    Apr 27, 2005
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    I know for me,as somebody who grew up seeing reruns of TOS, and grew up on TNG, DS9, Voyager and Enterprise, part of what made me so hesitant to see Abram's Star Trek at first, was because A) Reboot, and B) it seemed like it at first directly changing the time line, thus making it a 'full reboot.' Reboots tend to turn me off most of the time and I know from other forums and boards and communities, I wasn't the only Trek fan who was turned off by it being construded as a reboot (I know some still view it as a full reboot, despite the alternate universe explanation and thus refuse to even acknowledge Abrams' Trek exists). Thus, some of the old school fans rejecting it may factor in to why it didn't do so well box - office wise.
  19. Legolas Skywalker Force Ghost

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    Sep 3, 2012
    star 6
    The Hobbit should make a billion dollars
  20. Diggy Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Feb 27, 2013
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    One I'm surprised isn't getting a mention is the next Twilight film. Now I can't stand them myself, but the new one has to be a shoe-in for a billion dollars.
  21. Ender Sai Chosen One

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    Feb 18, 2001
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    No, it won't, and it shouldn't.
  22. Ramza JC Head Admin and RPF Manager

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    Aren't they done?
  23. Darth Guy Chosen One

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  24. Juliet316 Chosen One

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    Apr 27, 2005
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    The Host is not a Twilight film. Same author wrote both, but Twilight and The Host are two different books/films.
  25. Diggy Force Ghost

    Member Since:
    Feb 27, 2013
    star 5
    No chance. They churn out at least one a year, and they make shed loads of cash. I can't imagine there won't be one this year.