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Topic:
Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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KnightWriter
Title:
Administrator Emeritus
Registered:
Nov '01
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:05pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
- Date Edited:
2/12 4:05pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
KnightWriter
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MSNBC is projecting Obama as the Virginia primary winner.
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Andalite-Bandit
Registered:
Apr '05
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:16pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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By a very nice margin, again, it looks like.
I'm hoping that Obama's many victories this month give him enough of a momentum boost to compete well with Clinton in Texas and Ohio. If he wins those, he's got it, I'd say.
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KnightWriter
Title:
Administrator Emeritus
Registered:
Nov '01
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:19pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
- Date Edited:
2/12 4:21pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
KnightWriter
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Andalite-Bandit posted:
By a very nice margin, again, it looks like.
I'm hoping that Obama's many victories this month give him enough of a momentum boost to compete well with Clinton in Texas and Ohio. If he wins those, he's got it, I'd say.
Not mathematically, but I think that if he just does relatively well next to Clinton in those states, he'll be able to break free in such a way that to give the nomination to Clinton would be political suicide for the party and for people who are, in the end, politicians that look out for themselves (i.e. many of the superdelegates). Also, while it's not being reported much, there are still some mid-level primaries besides the big three left on the calendar. Chief among them is North Carolina on May 6th, which awards 134 delegates, not too far away from Pennsylvania's total of 188. I'd like to think it's stating the obvious that Obama should dominate that one.
The media in general has been reporting that if Clinton is able to capture Texas, Ohio and PA, she'll be able to just about pull even with him, if not get out in front. But, there are a lot of primaries left that award substantial numbers of delegates. Indiana is also on May 6th, and it awards 84. Oregon is May 20th, and it checks in at 65.
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Andalite-Bandit
Registered:
Apr '05
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:23pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Well Obama is already ahead in regular delegates. It's just the superdelegates screwing things up that give Clinton the lead, but these guys have the power to change their mind so I'd like to think that if Obama wins more and more of these primaries that these supes dudes will realize what they need to do.
Somebody told me today that they'd heard that McCain was considering Colin Powell as his VP nominee. I don't know if that's true or where they heard that, but if by some chance that was correct, there's no way in hell Hillary would ever beat that ticket.
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GrandAdmiralJello
Title:
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Registered:
Nov '00
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:27pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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That wouldn't be a bad ticket at all.
I also enjoy the hilarity of it. "My black guy could beat up your black guy!"
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KnightWriter
Title:
Administrator Emeritus
Registered:
Nov '01
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:27pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
- Date Edited:
2/12 4:29pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
KnightWriter
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Colin Powell had the presidency in his grasp if he wanted it in 2000, and part of me still believes that he had a responsibility to step up and run. Now, though, I think he could be close to damaged goods. I think he's a tragic figure, and did the bidding of a master he was infinitely better than. Democrats could slam him repeatedly in ads about the 2003 presentation he did, which sealed the deal for going to war.
Back to the primaries, Puerto Rico could end up being important in some way. It awards 63 delegates (a relatively high number), and it's the final one, in early June.
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solojones
Registered:
Sep '00
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:32pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
- Date Edited:
2/12 4:33pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
solojones
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I'm gonna be hella pissed if Huckabee wins Virginia  It's just kind of getting annoying at this point, isn't it? It's pretty much mathematically impossible for him to win, so he's pretty much not doing his party any favours by continuing the split. McCain's gonna be the nominee and they need to get over it.
In honesty I don't know a whole lot of details of Colin Powel's ideas, but I'd wager a McCain/Powell ticket would probably be pretty strong.
Looking very good for Obama for today. It's going to suck royally if it all winds up going to superdeligates. KW, you're right that Puerto Rico could, kind of ironically, wind up being a major decider for the Democrats.
-sj loves kevin spacey
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KnightWriter
Title:
Administrator Emeritus
Registered:
Nov '01
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:44pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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I think some of the talk about superdelegates is, while not quite overblown (they're relevant like they haven't been since 1984), possibly a little out of proportion. That's mainly because the superdelegates are mostly politicians, many of them elected and serving right now, and they're going to go wherever the wind is blowing. I suppose they could buck the trend at the time and back Clinton even if Obama is ahead in both pledged delegates and the popular vote, but I don't really think so.
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chiss_man
Registered:
Jul '02
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:50pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Some poll numbers: Here
The gist:
Hillary is up 56%-39% in Ohio
Obama is up 50%-40% in North Carolina
Obama is up in Wisconsin 50%-39%
Still a long way to go for those first two though, especially North Carolina which goes in May.
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GrandAdmiralJello
Title:
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Registered:
Nov '00
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Date Posted:
2/12 4:53pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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KW: That's a good point, KW, but he was also kicked out of the Bush administration in '04--and he could well point that out.
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Vates Ιυλιαδις
Moribus antiquis res stat Romana virisque - Ennius
Tu regere imperio populos,Romanæ,memento;hæ tibi erunt artes;
pascisque imponere morem,parcere subjectis et debellare superbos - Virgil
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-_-_-_-_-_-
Title: Manager Emeritus
Registered:
Apr '02
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Date Posted:
2/12 5:11pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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The endorsements of Al Gore and John Edwards could have major implications for the Democratic nomination, obviously. The endorsement of Edwards would be a major boost for Clinton in NC and could narrow the lead Obama is showing in the state already.
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Captain_Typho
Registered:
Jul '03
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Date Posted:
2/12 5:18pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Edwards or Gore endorsing either candidate at this point would be political suicide for the other. Looks like Obama will sweep today. Glad my vote counted for something! 
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Jango10
Registered:
Sep '02
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Date Posted:
2/12 5:21pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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I hope Huckabee wins Virginia. He's the only conservative left.
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McCain/Palin '08
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Darth-Ghost
Registered:
Oct '03
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Date Posted:
2/12 5:22pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Obama wins D.C.
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Captain_Typho
Registered:
Jul '03
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Date Posted:
2/12 5:40pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Due to weather, Maryland polls close time was delayed until 9:30 PM ET.
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