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Topic:
Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Handmaiden_Yane
Title: Manager Emeritus
Top Games Character Host
Registered:
Jul '02
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Date Posted:
2/15 9:10am
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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...there are lots of fish in the sea? i.e. there are lots of candidates?
And Hillary Clinton might lose?
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Souderwan
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
2/15 9:11am
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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It means that you think Hillary is a fish out of water, she's crabby, and a crybaby.
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"When we hurt each other we should write it down in the sand,
so the winds of forgiveness can make it go away for good. When
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Jedi_Keiran_Halcyon
Registered:
Dec '00
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Date Posted:
2/15 9:12am
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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solojones posted:
Also, I had a dream last night that I went to a small Hillary speaking event because there was this awesome fish tank, and I was just watching the fish there because there was one that could swim on top of the water. And then I went to a vending machine and scored big by winning tons of free crab meat. When I got back, Hillary was speaking and crying. The other viewers were distressed. I just wanted her to shut up so I could take my crab meat home and put it in the fridge.
...what does it mean?
-sj loves kevin spacey
It means you either live too close to or too far from the coast.
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solojones
Registered:
Sep '00
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Date Posted:
2/15 12:39pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Souderwan posted:
It means that you think Hillary is a fish out of water, she's crabby, and a crybaby.
I would say that's most likely. Also, I like seafood.
-sj loves kevin spacey
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Jada
Title: Chapter Rep
Charlotte, NC
Registered:
Apr '06
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Date Posted:
2/15 12:42pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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I'd like to say a big unthank you   to my state, North Carolina, who doesn't have their primaries until flipping May. I now have zero say in who I wanted to vote for. This really irks me. I've never been in a state where the primary is so late.
That being said I think all the remaining candidates suck and agree with roo's signature.
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Coruscant
Registered:
Feb '04
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Date Posted:
2/15 12:44pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Putin rips Hillary
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GrandAdmiralJello
Title:
Emperor
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Registered:
Nov '00
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Date Posted:
2/15 1:29pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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ObiWan506
Title: JC Head Admin
Registered:
Aug '03
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Date Posted:
2/15 1:45pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
- Date Edited:
2/15 1:45pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
ObiWan506
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solojones posted:
ObiWan506 posted:
Here's the dealo: I know a lot of people are wondering why Huckabee is still running. Not to mention the fact that this question holds more weight now that Romney endorsed McCain and more then likely his delegates would go to McCain; putting McCain at over 1,000 I believe. I know a lot people say that Huckabee is staying in to play for the 2012 bid. Some also say he's in to be that guy that conservatives rally behind. I think it's something else. This is just my opinion but I think Huckabee is in because of McCain's health. He hasn't admitted this and never will admit it of course. Look at McCain. He's 72, he looks fragile. Look at his speeches. He's either reading from a teleprompter or Post It notes. He's never reading from the heart. The man looks tired. He didn't campaign aggressively for the Potomac primaries and I think it was because he was tired. Just look at him, he looks worn out. If you think the primaries are something, wait until he fights for the General with an enthusiastic Democrat. McCain will look like death compared to their energy. If something were to - God forbid - happen to McCain, there is still on guy left standing. Everyone else bowed out and conceded. It's mean, but it's politics, let's be honest. And I'm not saying it's not a bad strategy to have on Huckabee's front. He wins on a ton of points.
If McCain was smart at all, he would throw the VP to Huckabee and shut him up.
With all due respect, McCain has survived a hell of a lot worse than Presidential campaigns. He's obviously bringing his 94 year old mother around with him to point out longevity in his family. I'm sure he's tired, but we've had older Presidents. And I think part of his speech style is just that- his style. I don't think he feels the need to give rousing speeches, it's just not what he's good at, he relies on giving particular ideas instead. Of course it's important to have a good backup plan. I do not think Huckabee is that plan.
I think Romney is going for a VP bid. I think he may well get it.
-sj loves kevin spacey
I like the idea of substance over flash. I think you're right, McCain wins there. However I think his speaking style will come into play - in a big way - as we move down this crazy carnival of politics. No matter who the Democrat is, they are going to know how to speak. They are energetic, they are known, they are aggressive. Their party continues to be the top headlines because of their dead heat primary race, while McCain is sitting on A19 of the New York Times. Who's on page one? A Democrat. McCain is already behind and has to play catch up when attention re-focuses on him and his speaking style doesn't give me much confidence in the regard that he can actually do that. Not with what I've seen. So what's left? Attack the issues? Yeah sure, he'll do that. Cut the legs out from under the Democrats. But I fear that will only be achieved by direct mailers and television ads and not in his face time on NBC. Not unless he's ready to amp up his style and ride the podium all the way to the Oval Office.
Putin is a feminist! 
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dizfactor
Registered:
Aug '02
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Date Posted:
2/15 2:39pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Souderwan posted:
60% of the country will vote Republican or not vote at all.
Voter turnout has been smashing records lately, and it was up in 2004 also.
Say we use 45% turnout as the base. Voter turnout doesn't usually get much lower than that. Say 40% of likely voters are Republicans, 35% are Democracts, 25% are moderate/swing/independent (not necessarily formally independent, but willing to cross party lines). Roughly. Please note that I am making these numbers up in my head.
However, voter turnout is not constant. Voter turnout has seldom topped 60% in the modern era. Let's say that's our ceiling, which gives us a range between 45-60%.
When partisan passions are running really strong, voter turnout gets up to, say, 55%, like in 2004. The same thing happens with a strong third party run, like 1992. The difference between 1992 and 2004, even though they had the same level of turnout, is that in 2004, the popular vote was really close and sharply divided along party lines, whereas in 1992, most of the upsurge seems to have gone to a third party, meaning it's basically a vote against the system.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the 15% of voters who may or may not show up, break down into three more-or-less equal parts: one part that leans red but only comes out when they're really fired up, one part that leans blue but only comes out when they're really fired up, and one part that's mostly composed of people frustrated with the process who only show up when it looks like someone might shake a few trees in Washington (often younger, first-time voters).
That means that:
* 40% of all eligible voters wouldn't vote if Jesus Christ himself were on the ballot and handing out free candy.
* 18-23% of all eligible voters will show up and vote Republican.
* 14-19% of all eligible voters will show up and vote Democrat.
* 13% are likely to vote, and are swing voters.
* Up to 5% could come in if they were sufficiently motivated by the promise of major change. We'll call them "Perot voters."
If Clinton is the nominee:
* McCain will get high turnout from his base (because they hate her) and have little competition for independents (because they like him), so let's say he should expect to win, say, 30% of the eligible voters. Conservatively.
* Given the circumstances this year, she would get high turnout too, but she would have a hard time with independents and I doubt she would motivate too many first-time voters hungry for change to get involved. She should expect to win, say, 20% of the voters. Optimistically.
* The other 50% will stay home.
That translates into a 60-40 blowout in the popular vote, and probably an electoral college landslide.
If Obama is the nominee:
* McCain will get lower turnout, but not so much lower. I think he will shore up the base between now and November, but without Hillary in the race, he might have to tack to the right more than he would like. Obama also has a strong appeal to independents and swing voters, and that coupled with a probable McCain move away from the center means he's not going to be able to pick up as many independents as he would against HRC. I think 28% is reasonable, if a little optimistic.
* Obama would redline regular Democratic turnout, pick up at least 4 out of ten independents, and bring in at least half of the Perot voters. That puts him at about 27-28%. Conservatively.
* The other 45% would stay home.
That's about a 50-50 split right there, with more potential upside for Obama than McCain.
That's how I see it, with rough numbers and ballparking and not really getting into the Electoral College issues.
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Souderwan
Registered:
Jun '05
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Date Posted:
2/15 2:42pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
- Date Edited:
2/15 2:45pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Souderwan
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I totally meant to say "60% of the country will vote Republican or Democrat" there. And I meant "voters", not country. 
That said, now I'll read your post.
Edit: Yeah. I pretty much agree with your analysis, 100%.
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"When we hurt each other we should write it down in the sand,
so the winds of forgiveness can make it go away for good. When
we help each other we should chisel it in stone, lest we never
forget the love of a friend." ~Godefroy
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DarthTunick
Title: Host: The JCC Weekly Poll
Registered:
Nov '00
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Date Posted:
2/15 3:14pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Coruscant posted:
Putin rips Hillary
Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice! 
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September 11th, 2001  -Never forget Viva La Ciudad de Los Angeles! RIP, Cody "Snowball" Reeves, 1978-2008.  Sir Jackass of The Sarcasm Knights  2008-2009 L.A. Lakers: 15-2
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solojones
Registered:
Sep '00
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Date Posted:
2/15 3:35pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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H.W. has endorsed McCain. Guess Jello knows who he has to vote for now
-sj loves kevin spacey
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6 x 9 = 42 Proud member of the Colbert Nation Obi-Wan Kenobi and Obi-Wan Kenobi in Ghost Ship Executor All Hail Cliegg's Blue Leg!
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Jabba-wocky
Registered:
May '03
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Date Posted:
2/15 3:38pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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I was so close to making him part of the Movement.
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DarthTunick
Title: Host: The JCC Weekly Poll
Registered:
Nov '00
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Date Posted:
2/15 3:41pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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About time that Bush '41 did something in this campaign (other than running for the Presidency that is).
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September 11th, 2001 -Never forget Viva La Ciudad de Los Angeles! RIP, Cody "Snowball" Reeves, 1978-2008. Sir Jackass of The Sarcasm Knights 2008-2009 L.A. Lakers: 15-2
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solojones
Registered:
Sep '00
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Date Posted:
2/15 3:43pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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He should go skydiving again. With McCain. Disprove all the naysayers about old age.
-sj loves kevin spacey
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