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Topic:
Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Lord_Vivec
Registered:
Apr '06
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Date Posted:
5/13 2:57pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
- Date Edited:
5/13 2:57pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
Lord_Vivec
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Donahue should realize that his "Catholic League" represents a minority of Catholics.
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DarthLassic007
Registered:
Nov '02
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Date Posted:
5/13 3:52pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Souderwan posted:
In equally pointless news, Hagee has apologized for his anti-Catholic remarks and the Catholic League has accepted.
Something that Ayers has never done after all these years.
Polls close in West Virginia in about 40 minutes. Hillary is expected to win. Exit polls show Hillary is expected to win big.
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Vengance1003
Registered:
Mar '06
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:01pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Those silly West Virgina-ers.
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Captain_Typho
Registered:
Jul '03
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:04pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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West Virginia is a little insubstantial at this point....sorry -_-_-_-_-
seriously, it will have little impact on obama scoring the nomination...but i do wish obama had campaigned more in the state, if for nothing else than to try and cut hillary down by 10 points or so.
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This is my favorite smiley because it looks funny------------->  Are you fired up and ready to go? Barack Obama 08 
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heathdaniel
Registered:
Sep '04
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:10pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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West Virginia, at this point, is irrelevant. And after the post yesterday with the voter who said "I heard Obama's a Muslim and his wife's an atheist," I don't know if there's much Sen. Obama could have done in that state full of uneducated, closed-minded voters.
A Clinton win there is guaranteed and means nothing.
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DarthLassic007
Registered:
Nov '02
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:14pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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It means that her campaign will go on. It will probably go to the convention. The reason it didn't end in North Carolina was that she was never expected to win North Carolina. She was always expected to win West Virginia. So a loss for her tonight would have ended it all.
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Captain_Typho
Registered:
Jul '03
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:19pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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exit poll data.......35% of clinton voters will go for obama in the fall....35% go to mccain....rest undecided.....
this kind of data bodes decently well for obama.
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This is my favorite smiley because it looks funny-------------> Are you fired up and ready to go? Barack Obama 08
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heathdaniel
Registered:
Sep '04
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:22pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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Her campaign will go on even though she has an insurmountable lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote and superdelegates have come out in scores for Obama? Believe me, the party will not let this go to the convention, and I hardly believe that an expected big win in West Virginia, with all 28 of its delegates, will change things at all.
Even Carville today said it's going to be Obama.
I'm not one of those who says she should drop out right now, I respect her for waiting for a graceful exit, and I think it would be foolish to think she's doing anything different. It would destroy the party if she took this thing to the convention, and, thus, her political career, too. And I think we all know that's what Hillary's concerned with here.
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DarthLassic007
Registered:
Nov '02
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:31pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
- Date Edited:
5/13 4:32pm (1 edits total)
Edited By:
DarthLassic007
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Captain_Typho posted:
exit poll data.......35% of clinton voters will go for obama in the fall....35% go to mccain....rest undecided.....
this kind of data bodes decently well for obama.
I don't think those numbers are good for Obama. Obama should be getting more of Hillary's votes than McCain is.
I don't think anyone should listen to those polls anyway. I remember seeing the same thing in 2000 when they said that 40% of McCain supporters would not vote for Bush. People get angry at first, but then decide to do the right thing for the good of their party.
Edit:
CNN and MSNBC call election for Hillary. No surprise there.
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heathdaniel
Registered:
Sep '04
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:34pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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A little more on the Clinton campaign taking this to the convention:
There are five remaining contests (including WV today) They are:
West Virginia (28 delegates)
Kentucky (51 delegates)
Oregon (52 delegates)
Puerto Rico (55 delegates)
South Dakota (15 delegates)
Montana (16 delegates)
If Clinton won 75 percent of the remaining contests (not going to happen, but we'll consider this her best-case scenario), at the end of the contests, Obama would lead the pledged delegate count, 1,925 to 1,863. Obama still has a lead and, one can assume, a lead in the popular vote even if Clinton wins 75 PERCENT of the rest of the vote.
Let's say that after that, the superdelegates are torn. They don't know who to pick because Obama is leading but Clinton has a lot of momentum and just made a big electability case. So they split the rest of the undecided superdelegates (according to CNN, there are 241 still undecided, so I gave Clinton the 121 and Obama 120).
At this point, Obama has 2,045 delegates, enough for the nomination. Clinton has 1,984.
This is all assuming that nothing gets done with Florida and Michigan. But I think it's safe to say that any delegate gains Clinton makes if those states get their delegations seated won't affect this math, given the high percentage of the rest of the vote I gave her.
So, bottom line: Obama would have to lose more than 3/4 of the rest of the vote AND see a large majority of undecided superdelegates go to Clinton to not win this nomination. Hillary knows this, people in her campaign know this, Howard Dean knows this, the DNC knows this, the superdelegates know this.
This thing isn't going to the convention.
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Darth-Seldon
Registered:
May '03
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:35pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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These figures which indicate these massive fractures within the Democratic Party are merely the result of a long protracted campaign which has relied on identity politics based on race and gender. Once the primary campaign settles down, the nominee is decided, and the convention proceeds--most Democracts will coalesce around one candidate. I'm not worried of that.
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DarthLassic007
Registered:
Nov '02
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:44pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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heathdaniel posted:
At this point, Obama has 2,045 delegates, enough for the nomination. Clinton has 1,984.
This is all assuming that nothing gets done with Florida and Michigan. But I think it's safe to say that any delegate gains Clinton makes if those states get their delegations seated won't affect this math, given the high percentage of the rest of the vote I gave her.
So, bottom line: Obama would have to lose more than 3/4 of the rest of the vote AND see a large majority of undecided superdelegates go to Clinton to not win this nomination. Hillary knows this, people in her campaign know this, Howard Dean knows this, the DNC knows this, the superdelegates know this.
This thing isn't going to the convention.
It's not about delegates anymore. Hillary wants to prolong this hoping Obama makes a mistake or the superdelegates swing to her. It will go to the convention unless Hillary drops out by her own free will. Even if all the superdelegates tomorrow back Obama, their vote is not official until they vote at the convention. So in theory, Hillary won't have to drop out unless she wants to.
If it goes to the convention it hurts Obama because McCain has no opponent until August. Fine. But if Dean, Reid, and Pelosi force Hillary to drop out, it will hurt Obama even more.
If it goes to the convention, there is only a split in the Democratic Party if Hillary steals it. But if Hillary is forced out before the convention, then there will be a split in the Democratic party with Hillary's supporters.
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heathdaniel
Registered:
Sep '04
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Date Posted:
5/13 4:47pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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DarthLassic007 posted:
heathdaniel posted:
At this point, Obama has 2,045 delegates, enough for the nomination. Clinton has 1,984.
This is all assuming that nothing gets done with Florida and Michigan. But I think it's safe to say that any delegate gains Clinton makes if those states get their delegations seated won't affect this math, given the high percentage of the rest of the vote I gave her.
So, bottom line: Obama would have to lose more than 3/4 of the rest of the vote AND see a large majority of undecided superdelegates go to Clinton to not win this nomination. Hillary knows this, people in her campaign know this, Howard Dean knows this, the DNC knows this, the superdelegates know this.
This thing isn't going to the convention.
It's not about delegates anymore. Hillary wants to prolong this hoping Obama makes a mistake or the superdelegates swing to her. It will go to the convention unless Hillary drops out by her own free will. Even if all the superdelegates tomorrow back Obama, their vote is not official until they vote at the convention. So in theory, Hillary won't have to drop out unless she wants to.
If it goes to the convention it hurts Obama because McCain has no opponent until August. Fine. But if Dean, Reid, and Pelosi force Hillary to drop out, it will hurt Obama even more.
If it goes to the convention, there is only a split in the Democratic Party if Hillary steals it. But if Hillary is forced out before the convention, then there will be a split in the Democratic party with Hillary's supporters.
You're saying that even if all of the superdelegates endorsed Obama tomorrow and gave him the number he needs for the nomination, she'd still take it to the convention because those votes aren't "official" yet?
She would be the laughingstock of the political world and have little hopes for a re-election to the Senate let alone another run to the presidency. I think even the mighty Hillary realizes that there will be a time to get out of this thing so she can save face for her future.
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Darth-Seldon
Registered:
May '03
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Date Posted:
5/13 5:03pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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The DNC will be fine as long as:
The candidate with the most pledged delegates, states won, and popular vote--secures the Democratic nomination. Assuming that Michigan and Florida can be swept under the rug and that their seating disputes don't question the legitimacy of the final nominee.
-Seldon
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DarthLassic007
Registered:
Nov '02
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Date Posted:
5/13 5:05pm
Subject:
RE: Winter-Spring 2008: The Republican and Democratic Primaries and Caucuses thread.
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heathdaniel posted:
DarthLassic007 posted:
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heathdaniel posted:
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At this point, Obama has 2,045 delegates, enough for the nomination. Clinton has 1,984.
This is all assuming that nothing gets done with Florida and Michigan. But I think it's safe to say that any delegate gains Clinton makes if those states get their delegations seated won't affect this math, given the high percentage of the rest of the vote I gave her.
So, bottom line: Obama would have to lose more than 3/4 of the rest of the vote AND see a large majority of undecided superdelegates go to Clinton to not win this nomination. Hillary knows this, people in her campaign know this, Howard Dean knows this, the DNC knows this, the superdelegates know this.
This thing isn't going to the convention.
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It's not about delegates anymore. Hillary wants to prolong this hoping Obama makes a mistake or the superdelegates swing to her. It will go to the convention unless Hillary drops out by her own free will. Even if all the superdelegates tomorrow back Obama, their vote is not official until they vote at the convention. So in theory, Hillary won't have to drop out unless she wants to.
If it goes to the convention it hurts Obama because McCain has no opponent until August. Fine. But if Dean, Reid, and Pelosi force Hillary to drop out, it will hurt Obama even more.
If it goes to the convention, there is only a split in the Democratic Party if Hillary steals it. But if Hillary is forced out before the convention, then there will be a split in the Democratic party with Hillary's supporters.
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You're saying that even if all of the superdelegates endorsed Obama tomorrow and gave him the number he needs for the nomination, she'd still take it to the convention because those votes aren't "official" yet?
She would be the laughingstock of the political world and have little hopes for a re-election to the Senate let alone another run to the presidency. I think even the mighty Hillary realizes that there will be a time to get out of this thing so she can save face for her future.
Knowing her, Hillary probably still wouldn't drop out. The superdelegates are unpledged so they could switch back and forth until the actual vote at the convention. She is hoping that Obama messes up or a scandal happens from now until August. As I said before, it will be foolish for the Democratic leaders to try to force her out.
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