Author Topic: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
dp4m 
Registered: Nov '01
13878_Luke Skywalker<br>Dark Empire
Date Posted: 8/6 7:00am Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
Jabba-wocky posted:
Suzuki_Akira posted:
[quote=dp4m]
This is where the Strategic Reserves come into play; there's a sales method which can be used to artificially reduce oil to approx. $80 / barrel and require OPEC to come down in price as well due to market demand -- once that's done, future sales can be done and puts get in place until the offshore drilling is up to speed.

It's not 10 years.



I'd have to say, at first pass, that this sounds like Nixon's "secret plan" for winning the war in Vietnam. Assuming this is legitimate, though, why would we do this? Shouldn't the strategic reserves be used, well, strategically rather than to be a stopgap that artificially lowers the price of oil one time, in a way that probably can't be repeated later on, when prices will be even higher and the problem more acute?




http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/04/news/economy/obama_energy/index.htm

Tapping the reserve
In order to quickly bring down the price of oil and provide relief for American drivers, Obama wants to sell 70 million barrels of crude from the SPR.

Currently, the U.S. strategic reserves stand at more than 700 million barrels of oil in giant salt caverns along the Gulf of Mexico. The reserve was established in the 1970s after the first oil embargo to provide a buffer against future disruptions. Since 2001, the Bush administration has poured 70,000 barrels a day into the reserve, with the intention of expanding it to its full capacity of 727 million barrels, and possibly expanding the reserve to 1.5 billion barrels.

Peter Beutel, an analyst with energy risk management firm Cameron Hanover, downplayed the impact that Obama's SPR release would have on oil prices. Beutel said that 70 million barrels represent only about three-and-a-half days of U.S. fuel consumption and would have a limited impact on prices, driving them down by $5 to $10 a barrel.

However, Beutel also suggests that the government could have a dramatic impact on consumer prices if it sells its oil at a substantially lower price to the refineries - in a type of deal known as a "netback."

In netback deals, the price of crude is calculated by subtracting the costs of refining, marketing, and transportation, along with profits, from the market price of the end products.

"If he sells it under a netback deal, it would fall under $100 [a barrel] very quickly, and maybe under $80," said Beutel. That kind of reduction could lead to a decline of up to 80 cents per gallon of unleaded gasoline.

Fadel Gheit, a senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer, projected a more dramatic reduction in oil prices, noting that Obama's SPR plan could "cut prices in half."

Gheit said that prior releases from the SPR during the administrations of former Presidents Bush and Clinton during the 1990s were "knock-out punches" that caused oil prices to drop dramatically. He said that to maximize the impact, which is primarily psychological, Obama should not provide hard numbers to make it harder for speculators to project future prices.

"We should not have a limit on what we will release," said Gheit. "That is the best way to keep speculators off balance."


So, again, the trick is NOT necessarily the netback plan -- although that helps in the short-term. The way this helps in the medium to long-term is when aviation companies like Southwest do what they did previously and place market puts on oil for longish periods of time (Southwest had 3 year puts so their fuel right now is much lower than any other domestic carrier) which the price is lowered.

 

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Jedi Merkurian 
Title: Games: RPG d20 GM
Registered: May '00
6372_Mace Windu
Date Posted: 8/6 7:01am Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
DarthBreezy posted:
And Paris Hilton Strikes back

HiltOWNED!

 

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DarthLassic007 
Registered: Nov '02
6219_Boba Fett
Date Posted: 8/6 9:58pm Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
DarthTunick posted:
McCain's constant whoring out of the idea of off-shore drilling is beginning to really annoy the hell out of me. Whose he trying to fool?

2008: The 50th season of L.A. Dodger baseball cool

2007-2008 L.A. Lakers: At least they beat expectations!




I'm glad McCain's doing it. The price of a barrel of oil has gone down $25 over the past week, just on the U.S.'s threat of off shore drilling. It is about supply and demand. It is about market expectation. Imagine how much more the price of oil would decrease if we did actually start off shore drilling.

 

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Lord_Vivec 
Registered: Apr '06
41676_Boba Fett
Date Posted: 8/6 10:01pm Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
Or we could do what the engineers are saying an properly inflate our tires and keep our cars well tuned.

But nah, let's be lazy!

 

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DarthTunick 
Title: Host: The JCC Weekly Poll
Registered: Nov '00
46801_Devil Palpatine
Date Posted: 8/6 10:05pm Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
DarthLassic007 posted:
DarthTunick posted:
McCain's constant whoring out of the idea of off-shore drilling is beginning to really annoy the hell out of me. Whose he trying to fool?

2008: The 50th season of L.A. Dodger baseball cool

2007-2008 L.A. Lakers: At least they beat expectations!




I'm glad McCain's doing it. The price of a barrel of oil has gone down $25 over the past week, just on the U.S.'s threat of off shore drilling. It is about supply and demand. It is about market expectation. Imagine how much more the price of oil would decrease if we did actually start off shore drilling.









I doubt it wouldn't be much, if what all has been said about the supply actually having a real impact on consumers (that it would 10 years or so for an impact, a tiny one at that, to happen).

2008: The 50th season of L.A. Dodger baseball cool

2007-2008 L.A. Lakers: At least they beat expectations!



 

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Jedi Merkurian 
Title: Games: RPG d20 GM
Registered: May '00
6372_Mace Windu
Date Posted: 8/8 11:10am Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
So now McCain is theorizing that Obama is the Anti-Christ. doh! plain

 

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Kiki-Gonn 
Registered: Feb '01
6549_Chewbacca
Date Posted: 8/8 11:39am Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
DarthLassic007 posted:
DarthTunick posted:
McCain's constant whoring out of the idea of off-shore drilling is beginning to really annoy the hell out of me. Whose he trying to fool?

2008: The 50th season of L.A. Dodger baseball cool

2007-2008 L.A. Lakers: At least they beat expectations!




I'm glad McCain's doing it. The price of a barrel of oil has gone down $25 over the past week, just on the U.S.'s threat of off shore drilling. It is about supply and demand. It is about market expectation. Imagine how much more the price of oil would decrease if we did actually start off shore drilling.




The McCain theory that the drop in oil has to do with talk (and nothing more so far) of us drilling offshore is pretty weak IMO.
Reduced demand as people are cutting back is the reason I've heard most reasonable economists mention and that seems far more probable. Oil hits an all time high, people cut back, price drops some.

 

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ObiWan506 
Title: JC Head Admin
Registered: Aug '03
40223_Obi-Wan
Date Posted: 8/8 12:12pm Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
It's obvious that oil prices are dropping because demand has dropped. Supply has been increasing. You can't blame politicians for taking circumstances and using it for their own credit. Actually, yeah I think I will.

 

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Darth_wanderguard 
Registered: Apr '05
6610_Han Solo
Date Posted: 8/8 12:16pm Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
Jedi Merkurian posted:
So now McCain is theorizing that Obama is the Anti-Christ. doh! plain

That's dumb.

 

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DarthLassic007 
Registered: Nov '02
6219_Boba Fett
Date Posted: 8/8 4:04pm Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
You would think that the Anti-Christ would be a foreign dictator and not a person who will only serve either four or eight years. tongue

 

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Darth_Dial-Up 
Registered: Jan '07
46157_Robot Chicken: AT-AT Pilot
Date Posted: 8/10 9:00am Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
DarthBreezy posted:
And Paris Hilton Strikes back

Check out this shirt. She almost looks like a Barbie doll. lol

 

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solojones 
Registered: Sep '00
24089_Obi-Wans
Date Posted: 8/10 9:29am Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
Darth_wanderguard posted:
Jedi Merkurian posted:
So now McCain is theorizing that Obama is the Anti-Christ. doh! plain

That's dumb.



It's dumb, but goodness, it's not saying he's the anti-Christ rolling_eyes It's poking fun at the actual way a lot of Obama's supporters treat him like he's Neo or something tongue


BTW, that Paris video is hilarious. Props to the writers, you know, the actual people behind it since it's not Paris wink Although actually the 'hybrid' of both plans proposed in it... is actually McCain's plan anyway. And pretty much Obama's now. Because as time goes on both are going to inevitably move towards the centre and thus the lack of differentiation between candidates in policy that nearly always exists will happen.

-sj loves kevin spacey

 

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VadersLaMent 
Registered: Apr '02
23042_Vader Jumping
Date Posted: 8/16 12:46pm Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
Wall Street Journal on the tax plans

In contrast, John McCain offers what would essentially be a third Bush term, with his economic speeches outlining $3.4 trillion of tax cuts over 10 years beyond what President Bush has already proposed and geared even more to high-income earners.

But Sen. McCain's plan does include one new proposal that would result in higher taxes on the middle class. As even Sen. McCain's advisers have acknowledged, his health-care plan would impose a $3.6 trillion tax increase over 10 years on workers. Sen. McCain's plan will count the health care you get from your employer as if it were taxable cash income. Even after accounting for Sen. McCain's proposed health-care tax credits, this plan would eventually leave tens of millions of middle-class families paying higher taxes.


Keeping the rich rich, the poor stay poor, and the middle class get poor. dancing

 

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dp4m 
Registered: Nov '01
13878_Luke Skywalker<br>Dark Empire
Date Posted: 8/16 3:04pm Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
solojones posted:
Darth_wanderguard posted:
Jedi Merkurian posted:
So now McCain is theorizing that Obama is the Anti-Christ. doh! plain

That's dumb.



It's dumb, but goodness, it's not saying he's the anti-Christ rolling_eyes It's poking fun at the actual way a lot of Obama's supporters treat him like he's Neo or something tongue


BTW, that Paris video is hilarious. Props to the writers, you know, the actual people behind it since it's not Paris wink Although actually the 'hybrid' of both plans proposed in it... is actually McCain's plan anyway. And pretty much Obama's now. Because as time goes on both are going to inevitably move towards the centre and thus the lack of differentiation between candidates in policy that nearly always exists will happen.

-sj loves kevin spacey


Atually, Rachel, apparently -- and I have to go third-hand on this for obvious reasons -- but folks with Evangelical friends are saying that their friends are instantaneously and unequivocably identifying the ad as coded Antichrist messages to the Evangelicals.

So the ad just seems funny and/or silly to us but it's not designed for us.

 

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Lank_Pavail 
Registered: Sep '02
42019_Indiana Jones
Date Posted: 8/16 9:23pm Subject: RE: U.S. Presidential Election 2008- the General. Vote: Tuesday, Nov. 4
VadersLaMent posted:
Wall Street Journal on the tax plans

In contrast, John McCain offers what would essentially be a third Bush term, with his economic speeches outlining $3.4 trillion of tax cuts over 10 years beyond what President Bush has already proposed and geared even more to high-income earners.

But Sen. McCain's plan does include one new proposal that would result in higher taxes on the middle class. As even Sen. McCain's advisers have acknowledged, his health-care plan would impose a $3.6 trillion tax increase over 10 years on workers. Sen. McCain's plan will count the health care you get from your employer as if it were taxable cash income. Even after accounting for Sen. McCain's proposed health-care tax credits, this plan would eventually leave tens of millions of middle-class families paying higher taxes.


Keeping the rich rich, the poor stay poor, and the middle class get poor. dancing



Of course. He's got to make sure his beer baroness wife is able to spend 750k on her credit cards every month. tongue

 

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