ST Episode IX Box Office Discussion

Chewie were home.....937 million.......Luke pulling the hood down....650 million.....Come see the end of the greatest movie saga of all time????$$$$$

 

If it follows the trend from the OT and PT, the 3rd movie of the trilogy will do higher box office than the middle chapter, but less than the opening chapter of the trilogy.

 

I'd venture into the 1.5 - 1.7 billion dollar range taking into account the following considerations (final film of trilogy, two year inflation of ticket prices, overall reception of "The Last Jedi" changing and JJ Abrams directing, merchadising, marketing)

 

Are we still being told by Disney and J.J. that Ep 9 is the end of the saga?I think that is crucial in the marketing.Is it the end of the sequel trilogy or the end of the Saga?

 

Oct 19, 2017 - 9 is also the film which unites all three trilogies and brings everything together. That's all they would tell me

 

I am expecting this one to be around 1.5 - 1.8 billion dollars. However, if IX will really be the end of the whole saga, then I see it at anything above TFA. If it is indeed the last one of the saga, this will rise the hype to a level so much higher than TFA as everything is coming to an end.

 

$500 million domestic and just under $1 billion WW. Opening weekend will be $150 million.

Can't be disappointed that way, right?

 

I think it will be around TLJ's gross, leaning on a bit lower. A lot of it depends on Solo, which I think could be a mixed bag and cause further backlash/burn out.

 

The calendar is incredibly good in 2019. If they pull out all the stops and make it an emotionally satisfying finish that feels more like SW then it has the potential to do 10% more than TLJ. But my predictions above will make anything seem good lol.

 

If it really is the end of the Saga the marketing machine on the lead up will be of epic proportion.They can cut footage from the whole saga to pull on the nostalgia strings.If J.J. comes through it has the possibility of being huge.

 

I think the absence of a Star Wars film for the next 17-18 months after Solo will make a starvation for a new Star Wars film and that will deeply help out Episode IX in achieving a better result at the box office.

 

2019 Box Office Competition

Avengers 4 - May 3rd
vs
Toy Story 4 - June 21st
vs
The Lion King - July 19th
vs
Frozen 2 - November 27th
vs
Star Wars:
Episode IX - December 20th

Runner up competitors might come from the form of Dumbo, Aladdin & Wonder Woman 2.

The question is, who is going to be the box office champion of 2019?
Notice how many of the big movies are coming from Disney?

 

Ep IX will still most likely win the year domestically. WW it won't.

But Disney will have at least 5 movies over $400 million that year, possibly 6. Avengers 4, TS4, LK, F2, Alad, and IX. But there will be a bloodbath in the summer so it is possible that someone cannibalizes the other.

$650 million is my prediction for IX with LK in 2nd place with the high $500's or low $600's.

 

Anything can happen, really. Who knows at this point.

 

Although AOTC and TESB were down around 30 to 32 percent from the previous movies, there were strong explanations for the third movies to rebound. TESB ends on a huge cliffhanger. ROTS was the final descent of Anakin to Vader. Here, it's more tricky. Beyond the divisiveness of the movie, TLJ ended some big storylines. Luke is dead. Snoke is dead. With Carrie Fisher passing away, the OT3 will be absent (except for Luke's force ghost). Interest in the non force users doesn't seem to be that high (i.e. no Harrison Ford star quality). The big issues are Kylo's redemption and Rey vs Kylo (and she's already beaten him).
Of course, the big marketing push will be the final movie in the saga! but with the big 3 gone, will that be enough? I think it's up to JJ to create a quality movie that brings back fans.

 

Exactly!!! Agreed 100%! Although the last hoorah is a pretty big lure but so many of the things that were fascinating about TFA became a bit diluted in TLJ. In other words, too much was answered too quickly.

TFA left us with "wow I wonder about THIS and I wonder who THAT is"
TLJ left us with "hmmm....I wonder where they heck they are going to go now?"

It's not like they can't come up with something great. I'm sure they will. But there's no specifics that fans are anticipating. That is the thing that draws people in. How will they answer this or explain that. None of that is left after TLJ and it almost feels like they have to do a one-movie soft reboot.

 

I agree @Gemlake and @jedijax. I’m
Not sure there is a big name in the current cast that would really garner much attention to the very casual fans. You’d be surprised how many went to see TFA just because of nostalgia and Harrison. Now there’s no big or familiar names. I can see this being a turn off to many, especially with the direction TLJ took.

I think the first trailer has to wow us. Tease us with the return of Luke Skywalker or something other than final lightsaber battle with Rey and Kylo and FO/Resistance battles. This is why I really could see Billy Dee being called upon or a big actor if they are going to go the apprentice route.

Regardless it will make a ton of money. I can see it being the least out of the three which would go to show the handling of the OT characters affecting this gross. Though depending on the trailers/marketing, it could be bigger than TLJ. At this point I don’t see any SW project topping TFA. As much as I want to be wrong that was a once in a life time thing. Star Wars was gone up until that point for a decade. Now it’s not not.

 

I think the casual fans like the new characters enough to be excited at their return. Rian Johnson was told to focus more on them in TLJ's script because of their popularity after TFA.

 

Makes more then TLJ just as ROTS made more then AOTC and Jedi made more then ESB

 

Disney has to find a way to release Episode IX in China on the same date as the worldwide release date. There are issues of privacy and dying down of hype being the cause of the decreasing box office collection in China. This adds on to the factor of it not being that popular in China, but I believe it can do better if it was in the height of the hype world-wide.

 

http://comicbook.com/starwars/2018/01/25/jumanji-3-opens-against-star-wars-episode-ix/

This is not good. I hope Jumanji releases like a week or two before instead. However, this will of course be very interesting and both films will win in their own ways.

 

I feel like Jumanji was lightning in a bottle. I don't see there being this huge anticipation for a sequel.

 

750M US/1.6B WW seems like a sensible estimation at this stage. Will be a happy ending and therefore satisfying experience which will generate more repeat viewings. Depending on how well it is done will dictate if it goes higher or lower than that

 

I’ll say it will make 1.4 billion WW or higher and leave it at that for now.

 

I don't know. I don't think things look good. TLJ is going to have a 3 multiplier or less. There most likely were not a lot of repeat viewings. Things don't look good for Solo. This one film per year thing is probably wearing people out. Then one more year and into a trilogy that may have worn out its welcome with its fanbase. I want it to be big, but the trend line probably isn't good.