Solo Solo box-office discussion

That seems like a realistic expectation. I want to see the trailer and perhaps get a feel for what the movie is before we start throwing numbers against the wall.

 

I'm with others in that I want to see the trailer first. Rogue 1 had some good trailers.

I am also in the camp that having it release mid-year, closer to TLJ, might dampen excitement. R1 was also the first spinoff, so I think R1 will have a higher total than Solo.

That said, if I am blown away by the trailer I could change my tune.

 

So much of this film's potential rests on Ehrenreich's shoulders. If he rubs people the wrong way, uh oh.

 

I will be honest and say he's the only thing/aspect giving me reservations about this film. I am anxiously awaiting the trailer because I really want to be excited and like it.

 

If one expects 700M to be the floor, we will get to the same issue we had for TLJ with people expeting 1.9B or crazy numbers like that.

Solo will make from 550M to 700M. Anything above 550M is a profit, 700M is the absolute top.

 

Right, and we can't discount the fact that some people might reject the film entirely simply because it isn't Harrison Ford.

 

Guilty. I will work on it, I promise.

 

I was a kid when TPM came out so I wasn’t on the Internet and I was just excited for new Star Wars but can someone recall what the internet reaction to Ewan as Obi-Wan in the trailers was?

I absolutely agree that so much rests on Alden’s characterization of Solo, but am wondering if Ewan has those same pressures.

I think he’ll do a fine job personally but I have no doubt that there will be those who dismiss it immediately because he doesn’t look and sound exactly like Ford.

As for BO I’m thinking maybe 500-650 total? It’s going to be interesting. Will be interesting to see industry expectations when they start coming out.

 

Ewan's job was easier cause he was playing a 20 years younger character, Alden will play a 5 years younger Solo

 

It’s bigger than that.

Alden is playing Han Solo! One of the most iconic characters ever, played by one of the most iconic actors ever. Comparing him to Ewan playing Obi-Wan is like comparing apples to oranges.

This is a huge deal. Pull it off and the skys the limit for Disney to mine old characters being recast.

I have no idea what this movie is expected to do. I’d like to think box office for this could be around the RO range, but I’d probably realistically hazard a guess at the 750m range. But it all depends on how people respond to a new Han Solo.

 

I'm not saying that a total below 700m isnt happening, but stating that it is the "absolute top" seems a bit extreme. Absolute top means it couldn't possibly go any higher. How can one make such a statement when the last spin-off made 530m domestically?

By stating that the movie couldn't possibly excede 700m, you are basically doing the very thing you complain about in this post, just on the other end of the spectrum. The movie could finish below 700m, it also could finish with 8xxm. Without any material about the movie, and no numbers whatsoever, it is rather earlier to clearly state what a movie could or couldn't do.

 

There are certain things that are expected in a Solo film:
(1) Solo breaks from the imperial academy
(2) Solo saves Wookies and befriends Chewie
(3) Solo wins the Falcon from Lando
(4) Correlia
(5) Jabba the Hutt and Solo's smuggling career (probably begins)
(6) as a bouns: Boba Fett

A solid story that doesn't deviate a WHOLE lot from the very basic but with a few added twists and surprises would be a good movie. Won't beat Inifinity Wars and probably not JW2. As it is looking with the hype, Black Panther will also end up on top. But Solo should be top 5 for the year.

OW: $115-$120 million
Domestic: $320-$350 million

 

can't wait for the trailer

 

I am just applying the standard drop of 33% that sequels normally have. I know Solo is not a sequel to Rogue One, but I think it is appropriate to estimate it like it was.

 

I think that K-2SOS meant 700 M, World Wide, not domestic.

To me, if Solo makes just 700 M world wide, that will be viewed as very bad. 550 M, total disaster.
Justice League, who many call one of the biggest bombs of the year, that has made about 660 M, world wide.

For Solo to do those kinds of numbers total, world wide.
Most if not all, would view that as extremely bad, disaster even.

It would be a 50% drop from TLJ's total WW gross.
And given all the re-shoots, then Solo would likely not break even.
I have heard budgets of around 300-350 M for Solo.
If true, then about 800, at least, is needed to break even.

Will it do this?
No idea yet, I have not seen a trailer or heard much of anything.

But I will say that if it does 700 M or less, WW, people will call it a flop or bomb.
Between 700-850 M WW, a bit disappointing.
Between 900 M to a billion, ok.
Over a billion, good.

Bye for now.
Old Stoneface

 

700M WW is the top. Do not expect more than 66% to 70% from Rogue One WW.

Of course, this is my opinion, based on observation of standard behaviour of Star Wars films in general. I may be wrong.

550M to 700M, for me. Anything more than that, then it would be a great success.

 

Well Ricardo!
Than we can start a bet between the two of us just to see who‘ll be right! Would be fun!

You say: Solo makes 700 million (WW) at the max.
I say: Solo makes 700 million + 1$ (WW) at the minimum.

Bet would be just about the honor...

 

I don't see why. You can't just use drops the episodes had in trilogies and apply that to a stand-alone movie dropping from another completely disconnected stand-alone movie.

Not that the numbers fit anyway, because a 33% drop puts the movie at slightly above 700m worldwide. So if the movie would drop "around" 33% how come your range is basically entirely below that mark, not slightly above and below?
It's certainly possible that the movie will land around that mark, but there isn't much to support a claim that it couldn't possibly excede that mark.

 

I tend to agree.
What we have now with SW is more like the MCU.
Some movies drop from the previous film and others rise.
A drop from R1, ok that is a reasonable guess.
That it must be at least 30%, that is more iffy.

And as I said above, IF Solo only does between 5-700 M WW, that will almost certainly be regarded as very bad.
X-men Apoc made about 550, Transformers 5 made about 600 M, JL made about 650 M.
With all the re-shoots, such a gross would likely make Solo a flop.

It is possible that Solo makes this little but if so, then further spin-off films could be in question.

Bye for now.
Old Stoneface

 

It is not a matter of how much a spin-off makes, but how much it costs to make one spin-off.

Solo will cost almost two times the original budget, so it is a bad example.

If Disney can make a spin-off for $150m, then they will be profitable even if they make only $500m WW.

 

If Solo was a generic spin off about a plot point from the OT, I would expect it to behave as a direct sequel to R1. However, this is Han Solo, not some new faces to perhaps an off-the-cuff remarked event from years ago. So while I don't expect it to beat R1, I don't think we can apply direct SW sequel formulas either.

 

That teaser trailer did not inspire me at all. Yeah, a few nods here and there, but it will have the same formula from the others. Just looking at some of the scenes from the teaser spells boredom parts. On the other hand Jurassic World 2 looked good and the mini Avengers Infinity war trailer looked like the movie will rock. This one, well more star destroyers, imperial tie fighters, and rustic old looks.

 

Solo trailer: amazing, intriguing, great visuals, the vibes.
Avengers trailer: we have a lot of unrelated characters and we will put them all in an arena and Michael Bay it.