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ST The Last Jedi Box Office Discussion (see warning on page 307 before posting)

Discussion in 'Sequel Trilogy' started by James T Kirk, Jan 3, 2016.

?

How will Episode VIII's box office draw compare to TFA?

  1. It will surpass TFA

    13.8%
  2. It will be comparable

    38.3%
  3. Drop/Significant drop

    47.9%
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  1. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 2, 2015
    @Ricardo Funes
    It’s not bogus. The article MTG linked specifically mentioned that in July 21, 1978, ANH was re-released in theaters. The original run ended at some point before that date, only to be re-released in that date, and the article also included the totals the movie had made with the re-release.

    Mojo includes re-releases in the "first run". ANH made $307m in a period that ranges from 1977 to 1981. They only separate the 1982 re-release and the special edition

    It’s an important thing to take into account if you want to make more accurate comparisons of BO performance between two movies released in times where re-releases were done not just due to popularity but also as a promotion tool for the sequels. ANH got a bunch of them. As such, you’re going to get very a different picture if you compare numbers that include 4 re-releases for one movie and only one re-release for another movie, as oppose to numbers that only consider the original runs.
     
  2. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    How could ANH be re-released in 1978, if TESB was only released in 1980? Come on !

    It was all the original release. The first re-release was much much later in 1982.

    Is this thread is pretending to know more than BO Mojo and The Numbers ? Really ?

    By the way, these numbers from BO Mojo are the official numbers used by Lucasfilm. Just so you know.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  3. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 2, 2015
    Because that’s:

    a) Info available in Wikipedia, which is

    b) Info retrieved from period newspaper articles

    c) Info also retrieved from collectors as there are different movie posters for each re-release of ANH

    This is just an example of a pre-ESB re-release poster:

    [​IMG]

    b) Info also compiled by film historians. I posted a couple of pages ago the info in DigitalBits

    c) Even the Numbers site has info on it, with the exact dates of each re-release

    Again, Mojo listing only separates two re-releases from its accounting.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  4. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    If I watched A New Hope before 1980, I watched the original release. It does not matter if it was in 1977, 1978, 1979 or the first months of 1980.

    It is not rocket science.
     
  5. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 2, 2015
    ^ That's wonderful, though we were not talking about special editions here, just the same movie being re-released several times for several years in theaters and how that can influence BO numbers and distort comparisons.
     
  6. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  7. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

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    Sep 2, 2015
    ^ I know that article and it's not well worded. The numbers they have for the re-releases are retrieved from the site Numbers, but Numbers includes those in the $307m accounting in Mojo. I can make a point-by-point post on it tomorrow if you're interested.
     
    -LordSkywalker- likes this.
  8. ChildOfWinds

    ChildOfWinds Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Apr 7, 2001
    It was probably rereleased like that, because back then, people couldn’t own the film themselves right? And I don’t think it was released to TV right away back then either, right? So maybe, not long before releasing the sequel film, they put ANH back in the theaters to refresh the minds of people who hadn’t seen it for a while?
     
    -LordSkywalker- and La Calavera like this.
  9. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    The official website of Star Wars "is not well worded", needs a 3rd party source for their OWN NUMBERS, and got their OWN NUMBERS wrong.... really ?

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  10. Othini

    Othini Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    Not bogus but it sure needs some more context and research than existing in "Magnar`s own vacuum".
    One of the things i really don`t care much about either way, amongst some box office hardcore analysts - is the game of comparing. Comparing with other franchises, comparing with a different time and age, comparing with total different marketing tools and audience demographics. Comparing with everything just for the sake of...comparing. Check: TFA broke so many rules for a movie being released in December, yet it is stil most important for some people to try compare it to the general law of it being the first in a Star Wars Trilogy, which always makes the highest gross. Which is not btw a wrong comparison. But look out....in this new era of Star Wars movies ( and accept we will get one movie a year now, like it or not), in the future, some of these comparisons will be useless. I bet there someday ( i hope) will be a Star Wars movie that TFA / TLJ haters really love, and then it might fall badly in the context of some of these comparisons from the past. I try to look at every new movie - part of a bigger franchise or not - as something unique and there are so many variables ( just look at peoples viewing behaviour changing by the hour) to take into account - that it will be hard to use older box office statistics in the future. I think TLJ will come out pretty good either way.....now, in 5 years, or 20 years for that sake.

    There is a danger that this thread will now turn into what went wrong/ what went right fighting, because there is little to add to the actual box office.

    I agree though that TLJ might be one of the most divisive Star Wars movies. But for me, thats just a win win.
    I still see little substance in the discussion from the "haters" or people who really disliked the film. Very little about the filmmaking qualities of TLJ too. Mostly its about "Lukes destiny" not being what some wanted + Rey not being his daughter or the banned Mary Sure topic. Then its the "turning Star Wars into Star Trek or hardcore sci fi" stuff. Like Force Skyping between characters ( great way of making two characters connecting in an more intimate and personal way, rather than planet jumping with random meetings).
    Or the bomber sequence at the beginning ( great tension and emotionally scene - seduction of the audience is everything) which pissed of "puritan" Star Wars fans. Yeah, Star Wars is fantasy guys, everything is allowed to tell a good story.

    Han Solo teaser looked good btw. I need to see more to really warm up though. I hope they add some more "colour" to the visual texture of the film + some crazy out of Star Wars context scenes + Powell soundtrack being great. For now i go with something like $ 130mill OW/ $ 385 domestic / $ 800 mill WW.
     
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  11. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 2, 2015
    I don't know if you noticed, but that article was written by a fan contributor, who hosts a podcast. I don't think whoever runs the main official Star Wars site is bothered with numbers fact-checking. Again, if you are really interested, I can explain the numbers based on actual info from the Numbers site and Mojo site, but I need some time to write it down.
     
    -LordSkywalker- likes this.
  12. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Ok, come on later with your analysis then. Let's see that in comparison to Star Wars.com, The Numbers and BO Mojo
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  13. Samuel Vimes

    Samuel Vimes Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 4, 2012
    Last I checked, the-numbers.com does have several re-releases for ANH, not just the 1982 one.
    https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-Ep-IV-A-New-Hope#tab=summary

    They list releases for 1977, 1978, 1979 and 1981.
    While BO Mojo has this as one release.

    And even if we count this as one release, then we are comparing a film that was in theaters for over three years vs a little over one year.

    Bye for now.
    Old Stoneface
     
  14. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    5/25/1977 - Star Wars is initially released in just 32 cinemas, grossing $307,263,857 during its first 18-month run.
    7/21/1978 - The official first US run ends on 7/20/1978, but Star Wars is re-released the next day due to its overwhelming popularity. This release is extended until 11/7/1978 and grosses an additional $33,908,317.

    These two releases were in sequence of each other. There was not a single day of interval between them.
    If I add up all these numbers, the drop from ANH to TESB would be even greater than the 32% I am mentioning.
     
  15. Skillzwalker

    Skillzwalker Jedi Master star 3

    Registered:
    Oct 24, 2015
    Pretty sure that in USA in the 70's after 12 months of release they had to remove it for a short period. as soon as that time passed theatres immediately brought it back as demand was far from exhausted. If the rule was not there no way it gets removed. Everything from 77, 78, 79 and early 80 is 1st release, not sure why there is even a debate.
     
  16. La Calavera

    La Calavera Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Sep 2, 2015
    @Ricardo Funes

    I thought it was going to take some time to break down that article, but I don’t think it requires too much writing to understand what is wrong with it.

    Here is the article again: http://www.starwars.com/news/the-star-wars-saga-us-release-and-re-release-history

    Here is what is wrong with the way it the numbers were presented: the article lists the following as separate BO grosses that, once added up, it brings ANH’s “final domestic haul to $460,998,007" (which is the lifetime gross in Mojo).

    Except, it doesn’t. Just do a calculation exercise of your own, and try to see if by adding these numbers, you will get $460m:

    Original run: $307,263,857 (*retrieved from Mojo)
    First re-release (1978): $33,908,317
    Second re-release (1979): $10,345,657
    Third re-release (1981): numbers not included
    Fourth re-release (1982) $15,476,285 (*retrieved from Mojo)
    Special edition (1997): $138,257,865 (*retrieved from Mojo)

    You will notice you’ll end with the number $505m of total BO, which is a bit outside of its actual total gross.

    You know how you will get the $460m number? If you exclude the first and second re-releases numbers (and the third too but he didn’t bother to include those numbers) and only add $307,263,857 + $15,476,285 (1982) + $138,257,865 (1997) = $460m.

    Which is how Mojo is doing its calculations. The “original run” number already includes all theatrical releases from 1977 to 1981, but excludes 1982 and 1997.


    Now you might be wondering: how did he get those numbers for the re-releases? And my answer is: he did some random calculations using numbers from the Numbers site, but didn’t notice the context in which the numbers were presented. It’s why he doesn’t have re-release numbers for 1981, because Numbers doesn’t have that info.

    Let’s just pick an easy example:
    Second re-release (1979): $10,345,657

    Go to the Numbers site, and just start summing up all numbers of weekend BO gross for the 1979 entries. It’s easy because there’s only two entries:
    1979/08/17: $6,760,165
    1979/08/24: $3,585,492

    I guarantee you, if you add those two numbers, you will get exactly $10,345,657

    The thing is, the Numbers site, when they list this info, they have right next to it a column that states the total amount of BO the movie had made thus far. And by the last entry of 1979, ANH grossed a total amount of $236,049,325 in BO.

    There is also another issue with the way he does his calculations: as I exemplified, the 1979 re-release numbers were achieved by simplistic calculations, but the info in the Numbers site is not complete. If you had all the numbers from the weekend gross, you don’t get the total BO gross. You need also to know the weekly gross – and they have a list below with some weekly numbers – but this info is hard to get and it not totally complete. Because there is a lot of missing info, it's quite possible that these numbers are not accurate. However, the Numbers site have a general idea of how much the movie has made each year, and again, by 1979, ANH was still away from the $307m total. And if you're using info from the Numbers site (as the guy who wrote that article clearly did), you have to take into account in which context the info was used and what was the total BO gross associated number in that site.

    Anyway, hope that cleared up what I meant with "poor wording" in the article.;)
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  17. castlecrasher2

    castlecrasher2 Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Jan 31, 2018
    The debate really is "TLJ's decreased box office from TFA a comparable situation to ESB from ANH?" My opinion is that given how much the industry has changed (shorter runs, more films) it's not a valuable comparison.
     
    AhsokaSolo likes this.
  18. Ricardo Funes

    Ricardo Funes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 18, 2015
    Lets make things even more simple, using the final numbers and counting all re-releases:

    ANH: $460,998,007
    TESB: $290,475,067

    Drop: 37%

    TFA: $936,662,225
    TLJ: $620,000,000 (estimate)

    Drop: 34%

    So the drop from ANH to TESB has become even worse. And the point was, the drop from TLJ is completely in-line with the default drops.
     
    chris hayes likes this.
  19. castlecrasher2

    castlecrasher2 Jedi Padawan star 1

    Registered:
    Jan 31, 2018
    Looks like we're done here, boys. Pack up and go home, we got showed up.
     
  20. Othini

    Othini Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Dec 6, 2012
    With the news of yet another Star Wars film series from the Game of Thrones creators - it just confirms what i said in my previous post. Star Wars is changing with this massive expansion and we will likely not talk about previous historic box office statistics and comparisons in the coming years - we will just move into a new era with almost a blank page again. Either way, the Skywalker Saga will live forever and that wonderful little film where Luke passed on the torch - made it to number one domestic and worldwide in the year 2017.
     
  21. jaqen

    jaqen Chosen One star 5

    Registered:
    Jul 22, 2004
    Anybody recall how long TPM's theatrical run was?
     
  22. BigAl6ft6

    BigAl6ft6 Chosen One star 8

    Registered:
    Nov 12, 2012
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  23. vong333

    vong333 Force Ghost star 5

    Registered:
    Oct 18, 2003
    QUOTE="Ricardo Funes, post: 54871608, member: 1414640"]Oh sure, Jumanji is sooo close to TLJ.... only 500 million dollars. [face_laugh]

    [​IMG][/QUOTE]

    To you and that poster that liked your post jaquey whatever, Jumanji has done very good, and has made what $855 million world wide? That’s pretty damn impressive if you ask me, and I’ll give you that, it’s not catching TLJ, but with the publicity on these boards that TLJ has gotten it might as well.

    TLJ is number 6 in the domestic box office, number 9 internationally total, made more money than Titanic did on a first run basis, withstood fan bashing and hating to make the money when other movies have folded, and yet not many people here have celebrated that. I get it, Disney Star Wars for now, have one thing common. Super openings with 17 days of good box office, will be the number one for three straight weekends, and then droooooooop. It’s okay, we have to accept this.

    Ossian- I agree on your response to Ricardo Fumes
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  24. Oissan

    Oissan Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Mar 9, 2001
    The actual numbers for ANH are as follows:

    Original release: $221.280.994
    1st re-release/expansion: 43.8m (coming right after or maybe even while the original release wasn't even quite over)
    2nd re-release (1979): 22.5m
    3rd re-release (1981): 17.2m (two weeks only)
    4th re-release (1982): 18m
    Special Edition (1997): 138.3m

    And for ESB:
    Original release: $181.379.640
    1st re-release (1981): 26.8m
    2nd re-release (1982): 14.5m
    Special Edition (1997): 67.8m


    It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to find one exact drop, because it is impossible to decide what to compare. There is no clear cut number for the original release of ANH, and even if you decide on one, does that one count, or do you also add the other re-release? Or do you add re-releases for both movies, and if yes, which of them?

    BOM lists it at having left theaters February 3rd 2000, for a total of 261 days. But the records are a bit spotty, so I can't guarantee that this is actually the case.
     
    Last edited: Feb 6, 2018
  25. chris hayes

    chris hayes Jedi Grand Master star 4

    Registered:
    Nov 13, 2012
    In Release: 261 days / 37.3 weeks
     
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