Solo Solo box-office discussion

Do we know TLJ budget ?

 

200 million

 

Where did you find the info? i couldn't find it

 

Apparently Infinity War has been moved up to April 27.

 

So, Disney gives it's IW one more week before some screens have to be released for it's Solo. This way, IW will have finished 4 weekends before Solo opens, by which time it would have made about 85-90% of its total take anyway. Smart business move by Disney.

 

You know that this is a great thing to happen. If gives Han Solo a chance, and you know. I have been thinking if Han Solo is a good movie, there is no reason what so ever that this won't make a billion dollars. It's wishful thinking but TLJ made $1.330.2 billion and Jumanji is at $930 million. Both came out relatively close, why couldn't it be the same with this movie? We got Star Wars fans so we know we call pull together if the movie is good and get it over the billion marker.

 

If Solo is well done and FUN it has a chance of $1B for sure. Its OW may be down some what from what we are used to (eg $135M) but if word of mouth is really positive i can see this movie having a good multiplier

 

I wonder if the moove of IW mean something about Solo quality

 

I don't think such a poll would help at all. There is a difference between actual expectations and what people on an online message board say. Something that gets even worse when you consider that many people who might vote have very little idea of how the box office actually works, which means you could get plenty of votes of what people may want to happen or what sounds good, instead of what is a realistic outcome. As evidenced by the poll for TLJ, which went against everything that made sense.

Not that people who work with the box office daily or who remember certain trends that you can't ignore are bound to get it right either

Why should it?
It's probably just a move to give IW a bit more distance to Deadpool and Solo, and vice versa.

 

I wouldn't automatically jump on the idea that it has anything negative to do with Solo specifically. This isn't the first date change- they recently did it for Deadpool 2.

 

Yeah I think moving up IW is all about giving more room for it to roam as it will now have four full weekends to play Pac-Man instead of three before Deadpool 2 comes out. This really has nothing to do with Solo though I do think it can only help Solo not hurt. Deadpool 2 is definitely an older teenager/adult movie (hopefully, I cringe at the thought of parents bringing younger kids to go see even though I absolutely loved the first one and cannot wait for the second one to come out) so while both IW and Solo are more for general audiences therefore IW cuts more into Solo key demographics then Deadpool 2. This could help with that.

Black Panther btw is on track for a $60-65 weekend. Assuming that is the case it should pass the $500 million mark around Day 18 which be fourth fastest to hit $500 million domestically in history. Keep in mind the other films either had a Christmas holiday opening (TFA, TLJ) or in the summer (JW). BP open on President’s Day weekend in the middle of nowhere calendar wise. Incredible.

 

Black Panther seems only to be limited by its relatively lower international appeal. Let's say at the rate it's going it has a shot at being the third most successful film in U.S. box office history, landing higher than Titanic. It may not make it to $600 million internationally, which would cap its global total at $1.25 - $1.3 billion.

That cap still gives Avengers 3 the edge for 2018 global box office champion. Solo looks like a potential third place finisher, assuming it turns out to be a fairly entertaining movie.

 

I think JW2 would come in front of Solo as well. The last one is no.4 alltime worldwide and topped 1b internationally. It should drop quite a bit - unless it can get further increases from developing markets to counter that - but should still have a much better chance to top 1b worldwide than Solo has.

 

tracking for IW
215 million OP
538 million Final
Do you think it can hit the billion international ?

 

John Campea, who is an idiot, says he knows two box office experts in the industry who gave him wildly different opinions on Solo. One claims the movie will open huge with a $150m opening weekend while the other one says Solo will struggle to open with $50m ow.

 

Han Solo will definitely be a tough sell for some. I personally had to watch the trailer multiple times just to get a gist for the movie. I admit, I was not feeling it.

Check this out: https://www.cbr.com/disney-sets-dates-for-six-untitled-marvel-films/. Marvel is just a machine.

 

That's quite a range. And I would hesitate calling anyone who thinks it will struggle to open with $50M an expert if that's their honest "informed" opinion. Struggling shouldn't even enter the conversation until you start talking about it opening to roughly double that figure.

 

Hahahaha $50M!! That’s hilarious. Are some people still not quite getting it’s a 4-day weekend? I’m not sure why anyone is discussing a 3-day opening as it’s not a 3 day weekend. Sure, you can go back later and say let’s compare its first 3 days to such and such other movies first 3 days. But going forward you’re just not being accurate. It’s a 4-day weekend and all predictions or discussion should be about that. It’s like discussing how much Black Panther will make Friday and Saturday. Umm ok but the weekend includes Sunday.

And I think $150M for opening weekend for Solo would be quite reasonable and shouldn’t be overly tough to achieve. It would be well below Rogue One given the extra day but it would be the best Memorial Day OW ever I believe.

 

my guess (i suppose an easy one): the top4 hit movies of 2018 will be Black Panther, Avengers, Solo & Jurassic World 2. In what order this i don't know...Civil War did beat Rogue One in 2016 so I suppose this new Avengers movie -being the supposed closure of all Marvel movies- will do it again. And be number one this year.

The movies that will bomb hard, compared to their "reputation": A wrinkle in time, Mary Poppins returns and Ready Player One.

Deadpool 2 is the challenger. It could be a big hit or a big flop IMO...we'll see...
Tomb Raider? I'm not sure this will be better than previous TR movies haha.

Have no idea about other blockbusters like Mortal Engines, Aquaman, Incredibles 2, Predator....so i'd say BP, JW2, IW and Solo will be the big winners by the end of 2018...but why do i know hehe Hard to predict Solo's BO potential. We know little about the movie. We don't even know if it's gonna be any good or if it's released too closed to the last SW Or if people are interested in a young Solo movie in the 1st place. So many factors...

Of course i'm talking numbers here, not quality. Most of these blockbusters leaves me rather cold. My most anticipated movies this year are Wes Anderson's Isle of Dogs and the new Terry Gilliam..and Solo obviously!...(also curious about Mute, Annihilation and Overlord, although i don't expect too much of them, guilty pleasures i suppose)

 

Are we prohibited from discussing the box office of any movie besides SW here? Is that why the thread was locked for TLJ? If so, could someone please direct me to a general box office thread if one should happen to exist here?

 

http://boards.theforce.net/threads/the-2018-box-office-blood-ocean.50047767/

 

@Darth Luch

Avengers 2 did $945 million internationally. Civil War did $745 million and it obviously doesn't have the cast this does (nothing does really). So it's doable $1 billion internationally but it isn't a slam dunk. Worldwide it's trending towards $1.3-1.6 billion. Not a bad spot to be in.

I also think again moving up Infinity Wars can only hope it and Solo. Give a bit more room to breath but again Deadpool 2 could really effect their box office totals even though it really is an adult movie. I freely admit that out of those three, I want to see Solo the least...and I am obviously a Star Wars nut. I will go see all three at the theater but if I could only just two, it be Infinity War and Deadpool 2. And I warm up quite a bit to Solo as I am looking forward to seeing it but if it wasn't "A Star Wars Story", I wouldn't be seeing it.


@Serpico Jones

Split the difference and say it's a $100 million opening weekend though that is Memorial Day weekend so perhaps we should focus on the four day total. Crazy as it sounds, Pirate 3 still holds the record for biggest Memorial Day weekend ever at $139 million. If Solo can break the $150 million mark or more for a four day total, I think it be in pretty good shape. If were looking at anything else below that? Danger Will Robinson!

@jedijax

TLJ got locked because really there isn't anything going on with it's box office (unless you think being #27 at the box office for this past weekend is something to talk about LOL!) and like I said earlier, IMHO everything that needed to be said about it's box office total was said. I don't know to me it got very testy in there quickly and never really recovered so I think a fresh start with Solo is a wise decision.

Black Panther is pushing for a $63 million this weekend. Right now it appears just short of hitting $500 million domestically by end of business today but stranger things have happened. But even if it takes to tomorrow to hit it, what a run BP is on. And really I don't see anything tripping it up for the next month. A Wrinkle in Time might not even be #1 at the box office next weekend. Yikes!

 

@Luke02 Yeah I guess TLJ pretty much finished its run. I just like watching the incredible run BP is doing. Anything Disney right now! Getting me stoked about going to WDW with the wife and daughter (her 7th birthday). Hope the weather holds out!

BP is almost guaranteed #5 on the domestic chart. I can't see it not beating Avengers. Rather opposite of TLJ which I didn't see beating it. And IW will probably top $500 million. Disney will have had 4 and actually 5 years in a row with at least one $500 million domestic and 2 $1 billion WW films! (2019 is pretty much guaranteed to have at least 2 and probably 4 or 5 billion WW films).

 

At the end of its run, Black Panther will occupy #3, #4 or #5 on the Domestic charts. For how long, I don't know. It's definitely beating Avengers. IW is a total wildcard to me at present - if it turns out to be heavy on Wakanda, then it could do extremely well, since a lot of people (me included ) would want to see a bit more of T'Challa, Shuri, Okoye et al. so soon after BP.

 

I don't see BP beating JW. They're dead even right now after the weekend, but JW will continue to dominate weekdays and later weeks due to its summer schedule.