Senate "Biden Beats Trump" - The 2020 General Election Presidential Thread

That’s basically my fear, yes. Especially given what the administration is doing right now. There will probably still be “elections” but the far right will never be in any danger of losing power.

 

Which is kinda ironic since I always maintained that one of the underlining themes was that it simply was not going to last IE the roaring twenties even though Fitzgerald wrote in 1925.

 

I think it could go either way at this point, but the worrying outcome which seems increasingly likely is that we'll never know who really won. COVID's impact on the election will have unpredictable ramifications, and I think states will struggle to process unprecedented numbers of mail-in ballots, which require more resources to count than those cast at polling centers. These ballots are also more vulnerable to litigation, and Republicans seem to have better lawyers in general, as well as a conservative Supreme Court. But it's also possible it will be a blow-out. I don't trust pollsters to be able to predict the makeup of the electorate anymore.

But if I had to pick one I'd say Trump is the favorite. Biden's campaign has been very bad, imo. In the aftermath of 2016 liberal pundits and Democrats quickly concluded that there were three primary factors which caused Hillary's loss: sexism, racism, and Russia. By nominating an old white man and sidelining Obama, they believe they have "solved" the first two problems, and this has enabled Biden to run basically the exact same campaign that Hillary did, appealing to Republican moderates. They are betting that Trump's record, particularly on COVID, will be enough to put them over the edge.

I'm skeptical that this will work though. Liberals' political project re: COVID (social distancing, quarantines, shutdowns) has produced inequitable outcomes for the ruling, middle, working, and under classes, which Democrats are uncomfortable acknowledging. This is the contradiction at the heart of Democrats' politics, they recognize systemic problems within American society, but then refuse to accept systemic solutions. When they refuse to support Medicare For All, they are basically saying they are fine with COVID disproportionately killing poor people of color. When low-information voters take a look at Biden, there is nothing there to reassure them he will produce better outcomes, because he is not communicating a substantially different platform from Trump. When Democrats say they are going to resurrect the "Obama Coalition", it is a pipe-dream because Obama was a prodigious phenomenon more than a harbinger of new political alliances.

Biden's campaign has basically outsourced all their operations to liberal/legacy media. They aren't knocking on doors, they're not having events that even resemble political rallies, and they don't really control their messaging anymore, they have to just nod their heads in front of whatever pundit speaks for them. They are betting that legacy media's overwhelming opposition to Trump will be decisive in ways it was not in 2016. This is a risky bet, imo. In the summer of 2016, the NYT's media columnist Jim Rutenberg acknowledged the conflict of interest between media and Trump, that he was a ratings juggernaut and was earning "free media" as a result. Rutenberg's solution was that journalists needed to cover Trump in a manner that was true to "history's judgment". This communique from on high green lighted a merging of editorializing and reporting for all things Trump related, which conveniently allows them to continue covering him 24/7 without giving free media. In theory. The problem is that this compromises their ability to communicate with Republicans (whom Biden is appealing to), and a majority of Americans currently see "a great deal" (49%) or "a fair amount" (37%) of political bias in news coverage -- more so than in 2017.

Whatever happens, one side will believe the results are illegitimate, that horse has already left the barn. And I'd like to remind you all that Bernie Would Have Won.

 

Remember that the official campaign has only just begun. This is when people not invested in politics "join the party".

 

I think these days the expression is "drink the kool-aid"

 

Well, this should be happening, but everything about this election so far has been weird. Coverage of the Democratic primaries was pushed aside by impeachment/Russia and COVID, and now we're seeing racial justice issues dominate coverage over the election itself. I know that might seem like an illogical distinction because all these issues are related to the election, but it's key to understand that election coverage in America is its own special kind of media, and we still haven't gotten to the point where it feels like a "normal" cycle. For the legions of voters who only turnout every four to eight years, all the traditional pageantry is a big part if getting them interested, and we haven't seen it yet. Now, it's possible this won't matter and low info voters will tune in anyways, but the "typical" election media environment hasn't really emerged yet. Part of the problem is Biden's bunker strategy, which doesn't produce much content for the networks to push.

 

The real irony of it all imho is that Trump knows at some level he can't be at his absolute worse because it could cost him votes with those that aren't his core base, and I don't know to what extent swing voters really understand that if he gets away with another term, he is going to be unleashed - easily 10X worse than he is right now.

 

@Point Given Oh, it's definitely great for Biden insofar as he gets a media "buffer zone" to protect him from attack. However I'm wondering if the media environment will also be less effective in generating turnout because low info voters like to think of their choice as being between two candidates, and right now it's all about Trump.

 

I think one of the big problems the Biden campaign has is just how broad their target base is. They are courting everyone from social democrats on the left to neocons on the right. Any time Joe has to take a stance beyond platitudes he’s upsetting someone who he’s counting on to vote for him. Which is more or less why he never talks beyond platitudes.

 

But at this point just trying desperately to save democracy from this cleptocrat should be enough to bring people together - basically anyone who isn't a committed MAGA type.

 

Not sure there’s a better image to encapsulate the in broad daylight criminality, arrogance and lethal danger of this administration than all those pictures of the White House turned into a full on rally ground (with COVID raging- regarding the lethality).

I grew up surrounded by Conservatives of the Regan era. They never would have believed it if you’d shown them one of those pictures and said a Republican was the one that would do it.

 

If you're on the ground, you know that's not reality.

 

I realize that, hence the use of "should"

There are a zillion things right now that aren't the way they probably should be, imho.

 

Looking at the case of a tie, and the 2018 elections, currently the state delegation breakdown is Republicans: 26 and Democrats: 22. Pennsylvania is evenly split, and Michigan is 7-6 in favor of Republicans, with the 14th seat for the state being Amash.

With the current house deciding, I think it'd be reasonable to say that at least Amash would go against Trump (since he left the party over this stuff), and so any Republican defections would have a big impact, both in PA and MI that would be tied (and would bring Biden up to 24 states), but also a single representative could flip Florida from Trump, and a single representative flipping would turn Wisconsin, Utah, and Kansas into ties. It quickly becomes a lot more competitive than one might expect, I think.

 

Not necessarily. The House votes by state delegation, not majority party. And right now, the Republicans have more states. So they’d give it to Trump.

More information here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election.

 

Sad but true.

 

It looks to me like Biden’s campaign is taking people at their word when they say they’d rather vote for a pet rock than vote for Trump. Like an inanimate object, Biden is really being marketed rather than run. If he had an advertising jingle, it would be an instrumental, except with Obama’s name shouted at intervals. Pretty much exactly like “Tequila” goes, only, you know.

The thing is, this exact strategy worked for him in the primaries, so I can see why his handlers are trying it again. I can imagine it working with those famous “low information voters,” since there is literally no information for them to wade through. Will it work on the independents and moderate Republicans the Democrats have traded away all their old platforms to court? I actually think it won’t, since these aren’t folks who feel a strong nostalgia for Obama. Also, I’m pretty sure that the country is down to 3 “moderate Republicans,” and “independent” is now code for “I’m voting third party, but I don’t want to listen to you bitch at me about it.”

I could be wrong, of course. Maybe the “I’d vote for a pet rock” sentiment is stronger than I anticipate. Either way, the “hide in your basement and say nothing” strategy is strikingly different than the one the Democrats tried in 2016. I think that’s important, since other than that they have changed nothing at all in four years.

 

One more thing about Donald Trump - if he loses the election, keep in mind that there is historical precedent for a losing one-term president to run again. If he isn't dead from 'having the best, most perfect body, ever' he probably will demand that he's the candidate for '24 presidential campaign.

 

One of his favorite tools in the toolbox; suing.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/20...absentee-ballot-requests-iowa-county-n1238665

 

@Bilbo Fett
The whole system of voter registration looks a bit silly to me. If someone is eligible they should be registered automatically.

 

I think at 78, he'd be less likely to run himself and just insist on nominating Ivanka or one of the sons.

 

Agree but those suits don't involve registration. They're over absentee ballot requests that have already been submitted (and now invalid).

 

No single image or .gif replies - PG