Senate "Biden Beats Trump" - The 2020 General Election Presidential Thread

His face was on the verge of melting off at the end of his convention speech. He was slurring his words as well. This is his last shot before age catches up to him.

 

Voting by mail:

 

I have a real problem with perpetual wearing of rose colored glasses, but I can’t shake this feeling that the number of people voting in this election will be a record high percentage, many of them showing up just to vote against Trump. Whether that translates into electoral college victory is another question...

 

I think you may be right particularly because so many more people will have access to mail voting, and yes, the Electoral College could still **** things up.

Thanks, 18th-century slaveowners!

 

Whatever happens in November, it's pretty much guaranteed to be an utter cluster****.

 

So far in this election, Obama's two biggest interventions have been to: consolidate the centrists around Biden to stop Bernie, and stop the NBA player's strike. In each case, his goal has been to squash political movements outside the control of the Democratic party, (the movement to elect Bernie, BLM).

 

I think it's more that they were potential threats to the plutocracy.

 

That's complete utter, nonsense.
Here's Trump in his latest campaign speech:
"Protesters? You know what I say? Protesters, your ass," Trump continued. "I don't talk about my ass."
Nevermind. You win, Glitterstim.

 

I know I don't often find myself agreeing with you, Glitter, but in this case I do.

I found some footage of him that shows how awful he really looks and sounds when he's not giving a speech - and it's pretty teriffying imho. (I know this is from a Lincoln Project message -- but it's not about what LP has to say about it, it's just about the footage itself)

Spoiler: Embedded video

 

all i know about today is he toured the louisiana hurricane zone, and then suddenly started giving people autographs. Not clear that they actually wanted them.

 

Yeah... and he thinks his signature is worth $10,000...

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/29/new-melania-trump-tell-all-book-404926

Funny, scary and sad if true. Which it probably is. Melania sounds like a real peach.

 

I don't really care about Melania. Do u?

 

I'm surprised this person wasn't asked to sign an iron-clad NDA

Nobody cares about her.

 

Anyone see any post-RNC polling? Biden did not get a bump, but I’m wondering why there aren’t any numbers showing if/how much Trump did. I have a feeling the race has pulled even (at least in the swing states), but outlets such as CNN are trying to bury that fact as much as possible.

Minor tightening in the 538 averages, but the trend is towards Trump. His people are claiming he’s now ahead in Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin, but I haven’t seen any recent data. The ‘underdog’ narrative has squarely shifted from Trump to Biden, and that’s a good thing, IMHO.

Thoughts?

EDIT: and after pretty much the entire business community said not to do it, he’s going to anyway.

It’s brilliant—if he wins, he can pressure Democrats to make the tax cuts permanent, accusing them of ‘burdening the middle class with a huge tax bill early next year’ if they don’t. If he loses, this will put enormous pressure on President Biden to protect the middle class from receiving a huge tax bill early in 2021, which will cripple his first 100 days in terms of political capital. Either way Social Security and Medicare will face major cuts.

What an *******. He truly is despicable.

 

I'm gonna do my best to avoid polls, if the worst happens, it happens. I don't want any polls giving me false hope or getting me down prematurely - I know I won't avoid them completely, but I'll try to avert my eyes.

 

Is it brilliant, though? Because he tried it once before with the tax withholding changes for the 2018 elections, and it didn't change a damn thing.

And they are desperate - desperate - to not actually say they are cutting Social Security and Medicare while they are doing it, because it's political suicide. It's opened up an easy attack on Trump, as well as cornering all Republicans up for election in 2020 to make a statement on whether they're okay with abolishing Social Security and Medicare.

You know what would be a brilliant strategy? To come up with a garbage health plan - it doesn't matter, really, what they promise because it will probably be a lie anyways - but Trump can't even muster that up. All he can talk about is what he's going to destroy or break.

 

They should run on Medicare for All but not specify that Medicare will be in a bad state due to the payroll tax cut.

 

The question is will they attack him on it? They have to right? They can’t just keep leaving the attacks to the freaking Lincoln Project forever right? Lord knows the DNC and allies have got enough money, They need to bombard people with this.

 

I agree. As long as we have it, it makes change nigh impossible.

 

Biden needs to go there too, and on the same day.

Trump is going to win Wisconsin again, despite Biden's polling lead. I'm more depressed about this race now than I was even one week ago. Biden waiting until after Labor Day to start travelling--the 'traditional' start of the campaign season--shows just how out-of-touch he is with the realities of the current world.

Hell, he and Kamala should've been to Kenosha already, but they're going to cede the narrative to Trump. It's so mind-bogglingly obvious that they're blowing it, yet they can't see it. It's maddening.

 

I got mildly bored and looked into this. I think this is coming from the Trafalgar Group, which had polling in those three states recently. According to 538, they have a mean bias of .9 to the Republicans and a C+ rating (RCP lists them as Republican). In the past they've been criticised for apparently doing some correction based on asking people who they think their neighbors would vote for as well.

Their polling in Michigan has Trump up by 2, but contemporaneous polling from Change Research (appears to same quality but other side) found Biden up 6, and I'd suggest that most likely puts it as a narrow Biden lead.
In Wisconsin they had Trump up by 1, with Change Research having Biden up by 5. Again I'd suggest that's a narrow Biden lead.
In Minnesota they have Trump tied (which is down from Biden up 5 from their previous polling) but also leaves them the only poll that doesn't have a Biden lead. So again I'd say that suggests the true value is a narrow Biden lead.

In all three states, they shouldn't be taken for granted, and while I'm sure Biden will do what he can to close the gap in those states, the current balance is still, generally, not in favor of Trump. They're just close enough for Trump supporters to cherry pick polling to their benefit.

 

Even the families of deceased musicians are not happy with Trump.

Leonard Cohen estate considering legal action for Trump using Hallelujah at RNC.