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Senate "Biden Beats Trump" - The 2020 General Election Presidential Thread

Discussion in 'Community' started by Point Given , Aug 27, 2020.

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  1. PCCViking

    PCCViking Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Jun 12, 2014
    Fortunately, Hitler never had nukes; unfortunately, Trump does.
     
  2. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    Your definitely correct. But that not going to change in the next 4 years or whenever he is up next
     
  3. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    Okay you know what I mean from Biden to someone right of him and from Bernie to someone right of him.
     
    Jedi Ben likes this.
  4. Jedi Ben

    Jedi Ben Chosen One star 9

    Registered:
    Jul 19, 1999
    Yeah, just seems strange how skewed it all is - same effect applies over here too.
     
  5. Jedi Merkurian

    Jedi Merkurian Future Films Rumor Naysayer star 7 Staff Member Manager

    Registered:
    May 25, 2000
    Coffeve. Hamberders. It’s hard to provide aid to Puerto Rico because its surrounded by water.
     
  6. Lordban

    Lordban Isildur's Bane star 7

    Registered:
    Nov 9, 2000
    Do we answer fantasy narratives with real world examples now?
     
  7. Luke02

    Luke02 Chosen One star 6

    Registered:
    Sep 19, 2002
    She tried keeping the mode light at the beginning but you could tell he did not want to do the interview since well it was an interview. He wants it to be a slurping contest.
     
    Darth Nerdling likes this.
  8. Lowbacca_1977

    Lowbacca_1977 Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Jun 28, 2006
    I take it he only did *almost* as much for the founding of the country as Donald Trump did?
     
    CT-867-5309, blackmyron and Luke02 like this.
  9. blackmyron

    blackmyron Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    Oct 29, 2005
    I'm guessing that starbob is trying to repeat some Trump fanatic meme he doesn't understand, not that they are usually coherent to begin with.

    Don't worry, bob, there's no need for you to vote - you should be welcoming your new coronavirus overlords, considered that Trump has conceded America to the virus.
     
  10. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 30, 2017
    Sorry if this has been covered already, but I just want to point out that Ball is 100% correct here, and it illuminates a major problem which isn't being talked about. Neither Biden nor Harris are are comfortable with actually talking about any proactive political platform/mandate/agenda at all. They can confidently say they deserve to win over Trump, and deserve the power that will give them, but they can never get real about how they will use that power.

    After all this time, they still can't translate their imminent electoral victory into a political victory, except in the broadest terms of culture war. The reason is that their political philosophy is neoliberal technocracy, or "Obamism". I think Democrats will quickly wake up to an uncomfortable reality - Biden and Harris will be deeply unpopular from basically the moment they get into office. The regime will quickly be consumed by one overriding concern, protecting Harris for 2024, and I suspect this will eventually force Biden to resign early.

     
  11. Darth Nerdling

    Darth Nerdling Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Mar 20, 2013
    If you're suggested that the cause of this was dementia, then I've got some bad news for you: your guy got his ass beat twice in the debates by a man with dementia. [face_rofl]

    In every scientific poll, Biden soundly won:

    1st debate --
    60% Biden, 33% Trump, 538
    53% Biden, 29% Trump, Change Research poll
    60% Biden, 28% Trump, SRSS poll

    Biden throttled Trump so thoroughly in the 1st debate that even not all of Trump's core supporters (40% of Americans) thought Trump won!

    2nd debate --
    69% Biden, 52% Trump, 538
    52% Biden, 41% Trump, and in this poll, moderates had Biden winning by a 2 to 1 margin, Data for Progress
    54% Biden, 35% Trump, YouGov
    53% Biden, 39% Trump, SRSS poll

    Fake polls right!!!
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2020
  12. robert martins

    robert martins Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 9, 2018
    Only poll that matters will be taken on 11/3/20. Hillary Clinton can attest to that.
     
  13. Lordban

    Lordban Isildur's Bane star 7

    Registered:
    Nov 9, 2000
    Actually, the only poll that matters is already taking place right now, with close to half of the expected participants in the election having already cast a vote.
     
  14. 3sm1r

    3sm1r Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    This is even worse than what it looks. The question was not "who won?". They were asking separately for the two candidate whether they performed well or poorly. Only 33 % of people answered that Trump did well, meaning that roughly 6-8 % of Trump's voters were like "yeah, he sucked".
     
  15. Darth Nerdling

    Darth Nerdling Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Mar 20, 2013
    @robert martins

    The polls were accurate in 2016. They had her winning the popular vote by a slim margin, and she did. The results in the Rust Belt were slightly unexpected, but the 538 model factoring them in gave Trump a 30% chance of winning. To someone ignorant -- like well, I don't know who... -- that might sound like Trump's chances were bad, but no, those are very good odds.

    If you don't think they're good odds, try this experiment: get a gun with 10 chambers, fill 3 chambers with bullets, spin it, put it to your head, and play Russian Roulette. You'd pretty quickly realize that a 30% chance of something is actually still pretty good odds of that thing happening.

    Now, even in the Rust Belt, Hillary was only up by a few points in the polls, so they were off by 3% to 5%.

    Next, adjust the above debate polls by 3% to 5%, and you'll see that Biden handily handed Trump his ass.

    The topic wasn't who would win on Nov. 3. The topic was Biden's intelligence and their performance in the debates, and your dim-witted president got curbstomped by someone who believe has dementia. You only deflected because you know you got burned bad.

    To change topics, yes, I will concede Trump still has a significant chance of winning the race. There are a lot of dopes out there. You're voting for him, right?
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2020
  16. Thena

    Thena Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    He has encouraged his followers to avoid voting early so most Republican voters will wait until election day. Now that covid is hitting some red states hardest, that means some voters in those states won't be able to vote as they'll come down with covid. So that's another downside of doing absolutely nothing to try to stop a deadly pandemic.
     
  17. robert martins

    robert martins Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 9, 2018
    Right, why would I vote for a puppet like Biden? Pinocchio has less stings on him than Biden.
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2020
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  18. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    And polling showing that a majority are democrats.
     
  19. Glitterstimm

    Glitterstimm Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 30, 2017
    Hate to be defending star bob here, but no, the polls were not correct in 2016. They failed to predict the winner, and basically everyone was wrong. Elite pundits were pikachu-faced on election night, "Bu-but, the polls! The polls said she would win!" Pretty much everyone was caught off guard and literally dumbfounded. This doesn't mean Trump is somehow in the lead right now, it's a different situation from four years ago, but there's no point in trying to re-write history either.
     
  20. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    Correct. But the polls were off by what 3% some states such as Pennsylvania and other important states are well past the margin of 3%+- mattering. Unless you think the polls will be even more off than 2016. Which I doubt
     
  21. Darth Nerdling

    Darth Nerdling Force Ghost star 4

    Registered:
    Mar 20, 2013
    Well, that's interesting. A puppet for Trump -- Starbob -- who literally burps out Trump talking points like talking doll with a pull string doesn't want to vote for the "puppet candidate." What happened to puppet solidarity?




    I think that won't have too much of an effect. Most Trumpers think it's a hoax, just the flu, isn't easily transmitted, etc. Going to a crowded polling place wouldn't bother them. Maybe someone just barely leaning towards Trump would be dissuaded from going but that probably applies to on the fence Biden supporters too.

    The more unfortunate part will probably be that a ton of them will show up without masks and spread the virus even more. I think the outbreak in the Covid-skeptic filled red states is going to become catastrophic soon. This will only make it worse
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2020
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  22. Thena

    Thena Chosen One star 7

    Registered:
    May 10, 2001
    It's unlikely the polls are off by that much, but remember the GOP is going all out with voter suppression efforts, trying to eliminate many mailed ballots, and possibly seeking to challenge a lot of things in court, that's why they were in a mad rush to confirm someone to the Supreme Court.
    They will do absolutely everything possible to try to steal the election. Which they probably did in 2016 as well, the difference was only about 80,000 votes or so in the Midwest.
     
    Emperor Ferus likes this.
  23. robert martins

    robert martins Jedi Master star 4

    Registered:
    Oct 9, 2018
    I guess I should vote for someone who doesn't know who is President and someone who doesn't know what city she is in unless she asks someone. They inspire real confidence. Somehow they are going to control Covid when no one else is.
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2020
  24. Jedi Knight Fett

    Jedi Knight Fett Chosen One star 10

    Registered:
    Feb 18, 2014
    There are still a lot of trump idiots who think New York will vote for Trump.

    It just boggles my mind
     
  25. 3sm1r

    3sm1r Force Ghost star 6

    Registered:
    Dec 27, 2017
    The 538 model gave Hillary winning with roughly 70% probability, which means... what it means, that Trump winning was as likely as generating a number lower or equal to 3 in a 1-to-10 uniform range, which is an outcome not completely crazy to expect.

    My problem with models like this is not that they are right or wrong, but that in single shot events they have no predictive power, unless the margin is so big that the conclusions are obvious also for people who are not in the field.
    This is what I mean when I say that Nate Silver is useless. I don't necessarily mean that he sucks at his job, but that the job itself is pointless. T
    he polls were close enough, and the race was rather tied.
     
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